by Douglas C. Drake, Chris Andrews and Laurence S. Rosen
September 16, 2009

April 1, 2010, is Census Day, the one day every 10 years when the U.S. records an official count of its population.

The national count amounts to far more than law or tradition. There are two critical reasons why every one of us in Michigan — as residents, business owners, students, executives, hourly workers or retirees — should want to make sure we’re all counted correctly.

First, official census counts are critical to the allocation of federal funds. Dwight Dean, Detroit regional census director, says that $300 to $400 billion in annual federal spending in the states — or $3 to $4 trillion over the decade —is tied directly to population figures drawn from the census. In most cases, the underlying formula is more people equal more money.

Second, the census counts are critical to the process of political representation — for congressional seats, to be sure, but also for state House and Senate districts, as well as county commissioner districts around the state. Because our state population is believed to have grown more slowly than those of many other states, Michigan is expected to lose at least one congressional seat next decade as the 435 U.S. House seats are reapportioned among the states.

Our state’s continued loss of congressional seats — we’ve dropped from a peak of 19 in the 1960s and ’70s to 15 this decade — has plenty of political, financial and social ramifications for the future.

Accurate count
Because so much is at stake, the process of counting has increasingly become an issue in itself, sparking heated debates and lawsuits.

To help get as full and accurate a count as possible in this state this time around, the Michigan Non-Profit Association has helped organize an unprecedented effort named “Census 2010—Nonprofits Count!” A key focus for the nonprofits is inner city and other hard-to-count census tracts.

The association’s campaign is providing grants, through a number of Michigan funders, for local nonprofit groups to organize local count efforts. Information on the grants, and links to maps of identified hard-to-count areas in Michigan, is available at http://www.mnaonline.org/census.asp. Public Policy Associates-affiliated consultant Sam Singh, a former director of the association, is currently working with the group on the campaign.

There are also changes being implemented at the national level that should help produce a more accurate count, especially in the traditionally undercounted inner city and rural areas.

Elimination of the Census Bureau’s “long-form” questionnaire, the more detailed survey that was sent to one of every six households in the past, will make it easier to determine the addresses for which responses are missing. Follow-up mailings and census takers knocking on doors at those addresses should make the results more accurate than in the past, according to regional director Dean.

Redistricting
Political pollsters Bernie Porn, president of EPIC-MRA, and Tom Shields of Marketing Resource Group, both based in Lansing, concur that based upon the best estimates possible, Michigan definitely loses one seat in Congress and, depending upon the final numbers in Michigan and around the country, could lose two under reapportionment.

Shields Porn

That will mean redrawing the boundaries of congressional seats, in effect redistributing the voting clout of residents of cities and towns all over Michigan.

Republican political consultant Shields says the general consensus among political experts is that Michigan will lose one congressional seat — as it did after the 2000 census. That would set the stage for an intense game of political musical chairs — with at least one odd man or woman out.

The Michigan Legislature and the governor will set the congressional district lines (state legislative boundaries as well), with the state Supreme Court ultimately deciding any court challenges. That makes the 2010 elections all the more important — with all 148 seats in the legislature, the governor’s office and one or two court seats up for grabs.

Democrats are in the driver’s seat now, with the governor’s office and House majority. Republicans control the Senate and technically have a 4-3 high court advantage, but they are at war with GOP Justice Elizabeth Weaver.

A decade ago, Republicans held the reins and turned a 9-7 Democratic congressional majority into a 9-6 GOP advantage. Left in the dust were Democrats David Bonior (who lost in the primary for governor), Lynn Rivers (who lost a primary to Congressman John Dingell), and Jim Barcia (who ran for and won a state Senate seat instead).

“If you have a Democratic plan, they probably go after (Mike) Rogers or (Thaddeus) McCotter,” said Shields. If Republicans find their way to power again, freshman Rep. Gary Peters or veteran Congressman Sander Levin could be facing a game of Survivor.

Internal shifts
Just as the realignment and reallocation of U.S. congressional districts reflect a redistribution of population and political power, internal shifts in the state that will be reflected in those redrawn state House and Senate boundaries will also shift the relative political strength of Michigan’s regions and, potentially, its political parties for the next decade.

Census estimates through 2008 show that despite flat statewide growth for the decade, the big winners within Michigan are likely to be the expanding Detroit suburbs (Macomb and Livingston Counties), Washtenaw County, and West Michigan (Kent and Ottawa Counties). On the other side of the ledger, Wayne County has lost more than 100,000 residents since 2000 and now has dropped below two million residents. Detroit’s losses are a major part of that. The Upper Peninsula has also continued to lose population during this decade, as have several of the other sparsely settled areas in north central and northeastern Lower Michigan.

This realignment of political power doesn’t always come out the way it’s expected to, however. Porn, of EPIC-MRA, noted that many observers thought the state legislative district boundaries drawn by Republican majority House and Senate members in 2000 would give Republicans the edge to maintain majorities in both Houses for at least a decade, if not more. But that didn’t happen, as population (voter) movement within the state shifted a number of seemingly strong Republican areas to Democratic majority areas, especially in House districts. House Democrats took control of the House in 2007.

“That’s important to remember,” Porn said, noting that “demographic shifts within the state can also impact the political balance inside the state, in the same way they can shift the balance between the 50 states. And we don’t have a good feel for how fast those internal geographic shifts are happening.”

Our friend Craig Ruff at Public Sector Consultants likes to describe the upcoming 2010 election as a “triple witching hour” (in the Wall Street sense of a once-a-quarter Friday noted for extreme market volatility) for Michigan’s future, because at that election: 1) all of the executive branch elected positions will be up (governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, and secretary of state); 2) all 38 Senate seats will be up, with term limits guaranteeing that at least 30 of them will be won by new members; and 3) all 110 seats in the House will be up, with term limits again guaranteeing a minimum of 34 new members, according to John Reurink and Susan Demas at MIRS.

We go Craig one better by offering the thrilling prospect of a “quintuple” witching hour, because: 4) that same November 2010 ballot also automatically presents voters with the question of calling a constitutional convention to rewrite Michigan’s fundamental governing document; and 5) all those new members to be elected to the Senate and House will get to use the 2010 census data to redraw the House and Senate district boundaries for the next decade.

For all of these reasons and many more, next year’s census is of critical importance. Count on it.

Douglas C. Drake is director of health, human services and philanthropy, Chris Andrews is senior editor and Laurence S. Rosen is project manager for Public Policy Associates, a Lansing-based national public policy consulting firm.