by Craig Ruff
January 16, 2009

Last January in Dome, I reintroduced Michigan’s Prophesy Contest. The contest was sent on sabbatical for several years. You may enter the 2009 contest at: www.pscinc.com/prophesy. Deadline for entries is Wednesday, January 21.

Let us look back on 2008’s questions, crown last year’s Michigan’s Prophet of the Year, acknowledge runners-up, and take a gander at 2009’s questions.

The New York Times’ columnist William Safire inspired the contest. He starts off each year with multiple-choice questions about things that may transpire in the year ahead. I converted the concept into true-false statements. I despised those five-answer tests in school and loved teachers who gave you a choice of only two options. A 50-50 chance beats a 20-percent chance nearly 50 percent of the time, within a margin of error of plus or minus 100 percent and a confidence interval of 20 percent, if your methodology is correct.

Safire cherishes words and their proper usage. Prophecy is a noun that means a foretelling. Prophesy is a verb. If you want to guess the future, you prophesy. What you prophesy is prophecy. Should the contest be called “Prophecy Contest” or “Prophesy Contest?” Probably neither. Technically it should be prophetic, inasmuch as it describes contest and therefore is an adjective. But, the contest is not prophetic. Ergo, it is the Prophesy Contest. I had to get that off my thorax.

Congratulations to David Waymire! He answered correctly 49 of 60 questions — 82 percent accuracy. Dave’s a friend, but I did not have to tear off ballot chads to make him the winner. One of Michigan’s finest journalists, Dave joined the ranks of public relations specialists and later formed with friend Roger Martin a super issue management/public relations firm in Lansing: Martin Waymire Advocacy Communications. If Roger does not beat Dave in 2009’s contest, perhaps the names should be juxtaposed.

What does Waymire win? What would you — Michigan Prophet of the Year 2009 — win? A lunch with me (my friend John Harrison asks, “Yeah, but who pays?”) and a book by a futurist. It is mostly about glory.

Lest you think that only a Lansing insider has a chance of being named Michigan Prophet of the Year, consider this: Dave is the only (517) guy who made the top seven. The six nearly best prophets hail from area codes 231, 734 (two), 586, 810, and 616. Wherefore art thou 248, 269, 313, 906, 947, and 989?

Chris Bedford came in second with 47 correct answers. A Princeton grad, Chris is a filmmaker and president of the Center for Economic Security in Montague. He and his enterprise want to bring ecological intelligence to business and public decision making, i.e. promote green thinking and a sustainable economy. He claims that he got help on the contest from “a high-ranking Democratic politician.”

Right behind Chris, with 46 right, were: (a) John Bebow, executive director of the Center for Michigan in Ann Arbor and formerly a top-notch investigative reporter and writer for The Detroit News, Detroit Free Press, and Chicago Tribune; and (b) Ken Lampar, who is a Macomb county commissioner (Democrat,) former staffer to Gov. James J. Blanchard, and political consultant. Ken hails from Sterling Heights.

There was a three-way tie for fourth place: (a) Dan DeGrow is superintendent of St. Clair County’s Research and Education Services Agency and is a former majority leader in the Michigan Senate and longtime member of the House of Representatives and Senate; (b) Teresa Edmonson co-owns Warren Autometric Fasteners, a Livonia company that makes industrials bolts, dowel pins, nuts, and screws, and follows business trends and national politics; and (c) Aimee Sterk, who is program manager of the Michigan Disability Rights Coalition in East Lansing. Aimee writes grants in areas of housing, long-term care, and health policy, none of which topics appeared on the 2008 Prophesy Contest.

Political, business, sports, and other events in 2008 entrants should have taken all of us by surprise. All the more reason to salute Dave Waymire and runners-up.

On the not-so-prescient side of things, 75 percent crystal-balled that Supreme Court Chief Justice Cliff Taylor would win reelection (he did not). Only 9 percent thought that every incumbent in the Michigan House of Representatives would win in the general election (they all did). Eighty-six percent of entrants forecasted that the Democratic candidate for president would carry Michigan. In the Olympics, 74 percent of entrants did not expect a Michigan resident to win three or more medals. How could so many entrants have forgotten or pooh-poohed the chances of Michael Phelps?

Entrants split just about evenly on business and economic topics. Roughly half could see a recession looming. Half felt that stocks in various Michigan companies would rise (sadly, none did).

On out-of-the-box silly matters, entrants fared well. Not a single entrant among 150 thought that Michigan would adopt the Euro as its currency. Bravo! Only 2 percent (three people) expected that Madonna would move back to her home state. A mere 4 percent prophesied that a Michigan city would change its pronunciation (e.g., from MI-lun to mih-LAHN). The same small number thought that CBS would base its next CSI series on Bad Axe, Battle Creek, Hell, or another town in the state.

Enter the new contest if you have any hunches about whether or not in 2009 …

• The legislature and governor ban smoking in all public places
• A share of stock in Kellogg Company ends the year at $70 or more
• Mr. Ford sells the Detroit Lions
• A Michigan resident wins or shares a Nobel Prize
• Michigan and Ontario announce that they are in merger negotiations.

Best of luck to you soothsaying Michiganians. Many thanks to Tom Scott and his otherwise insightful publication, Dome magazine, for letting me post the contest at Dome’s site.

Craig Ruff is, among many things, a senior policy fellow and former president of Lansing-based Public Sector Consultants.