by Tom Shields
February 16, 2008

If Detroit’s casinos could take bets, they would probably give Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick about 3 to 2 odds he’ll survive the text message scandal.

Given his past record — Navigatorgate, Wild Party at the Mansiongate, Roaming the City Late at Nightgate, Credit Cardgate — we could expect the mayor to respond to his latest troubles by lashing out at the messenger and denying everything. That’s more difficult when the messenger has the power of 14,000 text messages in hand as proof.

So, the mayor’s brain trust decides to bunker down for five days — about the same time it takes to figure out what the hell is in those messages. Then, they break the silence with a televised mea culpa, and putting Mrs. Kilpatrick at his side. She deserves a nomination either for Sainthood or Stepford Wife. Then the mayor declares the controversy over, saying it’s back to work in the morning, and please, respect my privacy.

So the $9 million question is, can Kwame survive?

Conventional wisdom says that if the mayor can keep this contained as a sex scandal, he can outlast those pesky reporters who want to ask all the personal questions. Forget the secret settlement, the perjury, the lies, the lives of the police officers and their families, and the expenditure of $9 million of taxpayers’ money to dispense of the whole mess. This was just about sex. And since Carlita has forgiven him, what’s the big deal?

Detroit has a history of rallying around their own in times like these. Since Kwame’s administration seems to have finally hit stride on downtown development issues, even the business community seems ready to look the other way. After all, it’s just about sex.

But, with only a handful of text messages being reported to date, does anyone honestly believe this is it? What’s in the other 13,990 text messages? How many more stories will soon leak?

Drip. Drip. Drip.

We’ve already heard about the secret settlement deal that cost taxpayers millions that was signed by the mayor and Ms. Beatty, and stored in a secret bank deposit box. The city attorney classified the agreement as “nothing secret.”

Drip. Drip. Drip.

And whatever happened to Kwame’s text messages? If SkyTel kept Beatty’s messages, they must have his. Don’t think that every media outlet this side of the Detroit River hasn’t requested the documents.

Drip. Drip. Drip.

And what do those text messages reveal? What was said about the governor, local business leaders and members of the council? Were there other deals? What about those messages that were too steamy for the Free Press to print? We can be sure they will be coming to a web site.

Drip. Drip. Drip.

What’s up with the Florida home financed with the loan from Quicken? Rumors are emerging.

Drip.

And don’t forget the massages during a stay on Hilton Head.

Drip. Drip.

With a bow to Clinton, now there are t-shirts selling online saying, “I did not have text with that woman.”

Drip. Drip.

At some point all the text messages — and who knows what else — will be made public. Then the drips will become a tidal wave of controversy that will drown Kilpatrick and this administration.

How can Kim Worthy not prosecute both Kilpatrick and Beatty for perjury? When she does, how can the mayor drag the community through a 12-month trial? That might be the final drop. Will that be the moment when the business and community leaders see a paralyzed government and step forward to encourage Kwame to do the right thing?

Kwame’s supporters will still say it’s just about sex. Hey, Bill Clinton survived. Just hang in there and eventually it will go away.

It doesn’t appear it will happen that way this time. It won’t go away by ignoring it or refusing to talk about it. It won’t go away with a city council ready to dive in with an investigation of its own. It won’t go away with the unions and other opponents smelling blood.

Kwame could hang on to his job for a long time and fight off the legal battles. At what price? Does he continue to drag his family and the community through a bad horror show?

We may be seeing the beginning of the end of a promising career of the Hip Hop Mayor. He’ll have no one to blame but himself. Kwame will be another politician who should have realized that being elected to public office surely does hold you to a higher standard — not a different one.

What a shame.

Tom Shields is founder and president of Marketing Resource Group, a Lansing-based political marketing and public relations firm.