by Tom Shields
April 16, 2009

When L. Brooks Patterson called the Detroit City Council – Cobo Hall fiasco “infrickincredible,” it was a pretty good clue that it was probably not the prelude to an announcement that he was running for governor.

Though groans of disappointment could be heard on every radio talk show, and what’s left of the newsrooms across the state that were hoping for a knock-down, dragged-out, sumo-wresting match between Patterson and Cherry, it was no surprise that Brooks took his name out of the running for 2010.

Brooks is simply more comfortable where he is in his personal and political life than he would be traipsing across Michigan’s other 82 counties over the next 18 months.

And though his departure immediately shrinks the field of candidates on the Republican ballot, it also opens up the race.

MRG’s polling showed Brooks to be the 260-pound gorilla in the primary (leading statewide among potential primary voters), especially in heavily populated southeast Michigan. That’s all up for grabs now, providing opportunities for others to enter the race, or gain a foothold in Detroit Metro.

With about 18 months to go, here’s how I see the race for governor shaping up.

The Democrats
It certainly appears the Democrats are going Cherry picking in 2010.

John Cherry is the anointed one, with Andy Dillon poised to step in if Cherry pulls a Cheney during hunting season. George Perles appears to be in the race, in hopes of eating his way across Michigan at Jeff-Jack dinners.

Our polling shows Cherry suffering from the long-time lieutenant governor disease of anonymity. Outside of Flint, he’s not well known (only 50-percent name ID among Democrats), and almost no one has a clue of what he’s done.

His “Whole lot of People Supporting John Cherry” campaign appears to end at the door of the State Democratic convention. That might be a benefit in a state where 85 percent of voters think things are on the wrong track. Problem: he fixed that by announcing he’s running on the Granholm/Cherry record.

Our polling also shows Cherry losing to all three Republicans tested against him (Patterson, Land, and Cox). It’s safe to say John Cherry has a long way to go before he starts planning a trophy room at the governor’s mansion.

The Republicans
Conventional wisdom says Attorney General Mike Cox should be the main beneficiary of Patterson’s departure.

Right now, he’s the only candidate from southeast Michigan, and though he has never run for local office in the area, he has the opportunity to become the hometown favorite. Couple that with solid support in the out-state areas (he runs even with Cherry in the Flint market), a strong finance committee, solid conservative credentials, and a track record of exceeding expectations, and Cox is probably the leading candidate.

There are Republicans who are worried that Cox might be carrying a few too many bags to cross the finish line. But those issues should be vetted during the primary. If he can get by August, he’ll be a strong contender in November.

Congressman Peter Hoekstra was the surprise statewide leader among traditional Republican primary voters in our poll.

Hoekstra has the solid support of Republican-vote-rich west and northwest Michigan. He needs to hold that support and turn his bike toward Detroit, where he pledges to spend 75 percent of his time. But, to keep that bike on the road, Hoekstra needs to get the west Michigan Dutch guys to open their wallets. If he can’t, he’ll probably take matching state funds, which may not be enough to keep pace with the pack.

Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land’s lack of support among those we surveyed was most surprising.

Many political experts thought that her dilemma would be splitting the west Michigan vote with Hoekstra and trying to find enough statewide support to win. But our polls show her getting trounced 3-1 by Hoekstra in her home area. Land should be well financed, and she has the women’s vote going for her. But, faced with building a home base and gaining support out-state, Land has the longest road to travel among the top three GOP candidates.

Doctor State Senator Tom George is a great follower of Abe Lincoln, but his candidacy may be more like Lonesome George running for governor.

What he lacks in funding, organization, and statewide exposure, he makes up in passion, integrity, and sincerity. Matching funds should help him stay in the race, if he wants to. George is the kind of person you hope to see on the general election ticket next year, even if it’s not for governor.

Rick Snyder is the wild card in the race right now.

A former U of M professor, this affable techie business guy from Ann Arbor made his fortune growing Gateway Computers, and for the last few years has been running a high tech venture capital firm out of Ann Arbor.

His business resume could certainly be attractive to voters in a state suffering 12 percent unemployment. Being the only non-politician in the race could be a real benefit, as his political views are a blank slate. But he will need to get up to snuff fast, as he could find others willing to fill in the blanks.

The Others
With Brooks out, keep your eyes pealed for new names from southeast Michigan to dip their toes into the waters.

Domino’s Pizza President Dave Brandon has cast his bait in the water before. This might be his time. His prominent role at Detroit Renaissance and his commercials taking pizzas from Wall Street brokers and giving them to the average Joe are raising his profile.

Congresswoman Candice Miller is always on everyone’s short list.

She’d have to give up her congressional seat, but her vote-getting potential, especially in crucial Macomb County, would really shake up the race if she jumped in.

Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard is another possible entry.

The twice-statewide candidate (Lt. Governor and U.S. Senate) might think the third time’s the charm.

If the well-respected State Representative (former state senator) Alma Wheeler Smith is serious about getting in the Democratic Primary, she could create some pits in Cherry’s smooth ride to the Democratic nomination. And if she were armed with cash, she could be real dangerous to Cherry’s hope to focus on the general election.

Early polling in the governor’s race shows it’s early. Too early to pick winners and losers, and maybe too early to know who’s even in the race.

But it’s never too early to write a column about it all.

Tom Shields is founder and president of Marketing Resource Group (MRG), a Lansing-based political marketing and public relations firm.