by Tim Skubick
August 28, 2009

Suck all the “rumor-mongering” out of this town and there would be no conversations at all. And while this may be more of the same, there are strong indications it is not.

Some have discussed the political pluses and minuses of shutting down state government on October 1…and for the GOP, the political pluses may outweigh the minuses.

During the ugly debate in 2007, GOP leaders had advice that they’d win the PR war over a shutdown.

The advice giver was Dick Morris, a former Bill Clinton insider.

But in 2007, Morris was gulping the GOP conservatives’ Kool-Aid as fast as they could pour it, so he told GOP leaders the public would see the Democrats as the bad guys.

The Rs rejected the Morris political calculus and decided it was in the best interest of the state to make a deal, including a tax hike, to end an abbreviated shutdown.

Fast forward. There is no budget deal and with each passing day, the prospects of a shutdown go up.

One administration source believes some House Democrats want one. Another Democrat believes a Republican is suggesting again that the GOP wins if there is a second shutdown.

Senate GOP leader Mike Bishop says he wants no part of that because “we all lose.”

The Oakland County leader did talk about the issue with current state GOP chair Ron Wieser, but Bishop says only in the context of explaining what happened in 2007. Bishop was not pleased that former GOP chair Saul Anuzis stuck his nose into the delicate legislative talks. Bishop reports that he made it clear to Weiser that “it will not benefit the party [and] I would have no part of that.”

Weiser claims he agrees, saying, “no one benefits.” Asked if he called any lawmakers to discuss a shutdown to help his party, the chair says, “I’ve not done that.” However, there’s a chance that may not be completely accurate. In a later conversation, Weiser contended, “There’s never been any contemplation, or discussion, or encouragement by me that we should consider shutting down the state for the benefit of the party.”

Some Democrats think Bishop could win points with conservative Republicans and help his own bid for attorney general if he allowed a shutdown to occur. And Weiser, whose job it is, after all, to win elections, could exploit it to win the governor’s race, the House and Senate and maybe even the Supreme Court.

While the Ds point at Bishop, he is accusing the governor of “using this shutdown opportunity to force an outcome” [that she] “orchestrated” to advance her own budget solution, including raising new revenue.

Bishop sees a repeat of the 2007 alleged Democratic strategy of running lawmakers up to the edge of a cliff and then forcing them to close the government or raise new bucks to keep it open. If given that choice today, what would he do? Rather than answer directly, he noted: “There is not a single vote in my caucus to raise revenue.”

If the GOP has a shutdown strategy, the climate now is completely different than in 2007. Voters are more angry; anti-tax tea parties abound and the anti-government crowd, as witnessed in health care town hall meetings nationwide, is loud enough for even deaf politicians to hear and fear a backlash if they support more revenue.

For her part the governor says she is not orchestrating a shutdown and another Democratic source wonders out loud, with the two sides close to a budget deal, why won’t the Republicans just settle it and be done with it?

Good question.

Tim Skubick is Michigan’s senior Capitol correspondent and has anchored the weekly public TV series “Off the Record” since 1972.

Tim Skubick Extra Extra… (A weekly bonus for Dome readers)

Just Lock the Doors
It was only a matter of time before somebody suggested it and, sure enough, a former financial emergency manager has talked about appointing a financial czar to do what the governor and legislative leaders so far have been unable to do — solve the budget crisis.

Louis Schimmel, who saved the City of Hamtramck years ago, was all over NewsRadio 950 in metro Detroit the other day putting the czar thing on the table and even hinting that bankruptcy might be another option.

With all due respect to Mr. Schimmel…it ain’t gonna happen.

It is true that a benevolent dictator/financial manager could resolve the budget mess in a matter of hours by unilaterally doing whatever needs to be done.

But last time anyone checked, this was a representative democracy in which all the voices get to be heard. And, yes, sometimes the voices go on and on and nothing gets done, but no one ever said democracy had to be neat, prompt and without in-fighting. In fact, you could make the argument that a protracted debate on how to fill in a $1.8-billion budget hole is healthy, as all sides get to talk.

However, there is a time to end the talk and do something, and with just over a month to go before a shutdown deadline, many in this town believe that time to act was yesterday.

The governor and four legislative leaders have been meeting, some progress has been made, but there’s still no solution and still no round-the-clock negotiations as far as we can tell.

Instead of chatting about frivolous bankruptcy and or money czar options, perhaps Mr. Schimmel should embrace something more realistic: put all the players in a room with no windows, no air conditioning, no water and food, and lock the door.

That would be one sure fire way to make the representative democracy work and infuse some badly needed urgency into the budget crisis.

Mr. Insider Surfaces
You’d be amazed at the number of players behind the scenes who help shape events in Lansing but rarely get their names in print. While the politicians crave the bright glare of the media lights, often times these backroom folks can only do what they do because they remain out of view.

However, every once in awhile they surface, which is what happened to Richard McLellan the other day. Desperate for a guest for the Off the Record broadcast, the call went out. McLellan joyfully agreed to show up.

McLellan has a 40-year history in this town dating back to the Milliken years. McLellan was kicking around the headquarters of the Michigan GOP, steadfastly not making a name for himself, when one day walking down the street he bumped into Don Gordon.

Gordon was working for then-Governor Bill Milliken.

“Hey, what are you doing?” Gordon inquired of the young man he knew was working for the GOP.

McLellan was between engagements, but before the day was done he was the driver for the governor … and from then on, as they say, the rest is history.

Along the way he became a close confident of Gov. John Engler, even heading the transition team for the first Engler term.

Now comes the next pack of would-be GOP governors, and McLellan is getting a look-see at them as they pay homage to the semi-retired Lansing attorney/insider.

Here is his take on the five.

Mike Cox: Hard worker, can raise the dough, but can he forge a good working relationship with the legislature? “He has a ways to go,” McLellan observes.

Pete Hoekstra: Can he raise the money? He would be one of he “strongest” candidates for the job.

Mike Bouchard: “Might be the best governor. Whether he runs a good campaign and raises the money” are two unanswered questions.

Rick Snyder: “I don’t take him seriously.” He “insulted” the business community when he said he would not take political action committee contributions.

Tom George: “Good guy” but “I don’t see him being a serious candidate.”

Now back to obscurity for Mr. M.