by Gongwer News Service
August 01, 2008

While the upcoming primary contest is technically only a qualifying race for November’s general election, the 20 percent of people who Secretary of State Terri Land estimates will vote on Tuesday will determine the final makeup of a large percentage of the state House.

About 80 percent of the House seats are in areas with a Democratic or Republican stronghold, which means the candidate who is competing against the historically triumphant party in those races probably won’t succeed in the general election, no matter how fiercely he or she competes.

While there are 44 seats featuring no incumbent, either due to term limits or because one lawmaker chose not to run again, 19 incumbents face challenges in the primary, 16 of which are Democrats.

The likelihood that an incumbent will fall in the primary is slim, although there are a few exciting races where a first-term lawmaker is facing a financially strong challenge from a member of the lawmaker’s own party (i.e. Rep. Ted Hammon (D-Burton) in the 50th District) or an incumbent is having a deja-vu experience in that one of the opponents in 2006 is running against the lawmaker this year (i.e. Rep. Bettie Cook Scott (D-Detroit) in the 3rd District, Rep. Tim Melton (D-Auburn Hills) in the 29th District and Rep. Andy Coulouris (D-Saginaw) in the 95th District).

While the blue party has significantly more heads on the primary chopping block, not many incumbents are thought to be in actual jeopardy of losing.

However, if several Democratic lawmakers lose their re-election bids next week, it could be a sign to the party that it may have more work to do with the voters than it anticipated in order to retain its six-member majority in the House.

While both parties take a hands-off approach to the primary races, count on them pouring more money into the 20 percent of seats that could get away from them in this next election.

In many districts, the incumbents responsible for taking the seat away from the opposing party are finally leaving office after a six-year reign, meaning both parties will now pounce at the chance to fight over a swing district.

That’s the case in the 37th District where Rep. Aldo Vagnozzi (D-Farmington Hills) won the seat from a Republican and where well-matched competitors will likely face off in the general election.

However, in that race, as in a handful of others, there is a candidate who refuses to take political action committee donations. If that candidate happens to win the primary, he or she would be heavily outspent, and thus likely thwarted, by the challenger in the general election.

In other open seats such as the 23rd district, now held by Rep. Kathleen Law (D-Gibraltar), a moderate member of either party could prevail. In a quirky twist to that race, two of the Democrats on the primary ticket formerly ran as Republicans.

Spectators can also expect the parties to pour large sums of money into the 51st District, in which the departure of term-limited Rep. David Robertson (R-Grand Blanc) leaves an open seat in a 50-percent Democratic, 50-percent Republican-voting district, and into districts like the 65th where Rep. Mike Simpson (D-Liberty Township) is running for re-election for the first time after beating a sitting incumbent in 2006.

2010 is right around the corner
Just as soon as the November polls close, it’s a sure bet that the political machine will gear up in full force for the upcoming packed election year in 2010. Positions will be open for governor, secretary of state, attorney general and the full Senate and House.

Several people have already shown interest in succeeding Governor Jennifer Granholm, including, on the Democratic side: Lt. Governor John Cherry; Sen. Mark Schauer (D-Battle Creek); former Detroit Mayor Dennis Archer; Wayne County Executive Robert Ficano; Mike Duggan, former Wayne County prosecutor and head of Detroit Medical Center, U.S. Rep. Bart Stupak (D-Menominee) and Genesee County Treasurer Dan Kildee.

House Speaker Andy Dillon (D-Redford Twp.) was a contender in earlier months, but it’s likely he has taken his hat out of the ring.

Republicans have their fair share of potential hopefuls for the post as well, including 2006 candidate Dick DeVos, Domino’s Pizza mogul David Brandon, Attorney General Mike Cox, Secretary of State Terri Land, Sen. Wayne Kuipers (R-Holland), U.S. Rep. Peter Hoekstra (R-Holland), U.S. Rep. Candice Miller (R-Mount Clemens), U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Brighton), Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop (R-Rochester) and Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard.

The field of candidates for attorney general is still small, so far positioning two senators against each other. Majority Leader Bishop also has expressed interest in the position and Sen. Gretchen Whitmer (D-East Lansing) has said she may forego running for a second term in the Senate and run for the AG post instead.

Not counting senators who are eligible but don’t run for re-election, there will be 31 open seats (out of 38) in that chamber in two years as a result of term limits. The House will feature at least 33 open seats, but likely more as incumbents choose to run for the Senate.

For nearly 50 years in Michigan, Gongwer News Service has provided independent, comprehensive, accurate and timely coverage of issues in and around Michigan’s government and political systems. For subscription information, including a free trial, visit Gongwer online.