by Gongwer News Service
October 6, 2008

Count it as a head-turning political moment.

The decision publicly confirmed last Thursday by the McCain campaign to shift its professional staff and ad dollars out of Michigan promises to shake up Republican and Democratic campaigns across the spectrum, though to what degree and in what direction remains to be seen.

It was an abrupt cease-fire in what had been a seemingly non-stop round of appearances by both Republican presidential candidate John McCain and his surrogates and Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama and his surrogates since the national conventions concluded.

Most insiders already had expected Republicans faced an uphill battle to even hold their own in the 58-52 Democratic state House. Attention will likely grow as well to two congressional seats held by Republicans U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg and U.S. Rep. Joe Knollenberg.

In the short-term, Michigan Republicans could not conceal their disappointment. Republican Party Chair Saul Anuzis said candidates have lost their air cover and it’s now up to the ground troops to carry the fight. He and the head of House campaigns said, though, that their overall strategy and goals remain unchanged.

To be sure, the scaling back on the GOP side likely means fewer visits and TV ads by the Obama campaign as well, leaving Democrats more on their own to carry the ball.

By Friday, Republican officials in Michigan were characterizing the move not as a pullout but moving some resources to other states. While confidently predicting that the McCain campaign would come back in full to the state, they also acknowledged they were stepping up their campaign efforts.

Michigan, a state that Mr. McCain had won in the 2000 primaries, was considered fertile ground given his maverick image on key issues. It was counted as one of the better prospects to kick a 20-year blue state into the red column in a way that could have cinched the presidency for him.

But Wall Street’s financial meltdown played into Democratic strengths on worries about the economy, and polls showed Mr. Obama with a growing advantage over Mr. McCain and holding the moderates and independents that the Republican would have to win if he were to take the state. With that traction slipping, the McCain campaign opted to concentrate on other states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Ohio which it deems more in play and still fit into a winning 270-electoral-vote strategy.

Mr. Anuzis, who said the McCain decision was not a strategy he would have recommended, talks about the base becoming more energized by its underdog status and expects to have a new playbook in place by Monday. He spent Thursday night in conference calls with supporters and donors, working to fill in the gaps left by the McCain departure.

The question also is whether the strategic shift is temporary. Similar campaign scale-backs occurred in 2000 and 2004, only to see the race tighten substantially at the end, which in the last election forced Democratic candidate John Kerry to spend election eve in Michigan to keep it from slipping away.

And McCain running mate Sarah Palin signaled she was not ready to wave the white flag. She said in an interview with Fox News that she “fired off a quick e-mail” to the campaign offering to go to Michigan with her husband to meet with workers at auto plants. “We’d be so happy to speak to the people there in Michigan who are hurting. Whatever Todd and I can do, and realizing the challenges that state faces because we can identify with them and promise them that we’re not going to let them down in this administration.”

For his part, Democratic Party Chair Mark Brewer said his side will be “pushing forward full-steam ahead to carry Michigan for Barack Obama and Democrats up and down the ticket. The stakes are too high; we cannot afford to do anything less since Michigan cannot afford four more years of the failed Bush-McCain economic polices.”

At least for now, as veteran pollster Ed Sarpolus put it, it is up to the state parties to fill the void with additional money and take control of the get-out-the-vote effort.

Without an energized Republican base, GOP consultant Tom Shields notes, the consequences could be felt most in state House races, but his view is that Democrats now have some concerns in that area as well if Mr. Obama also drops his visibility.

For nearly 50 years in Michigan, Gongwer News Service has provided independent, comprehensive, accurate and timely coverage of issues in and around Michigan’s government and political systems. For subscription information, including a free trial, visit Gongwer online.