by Gongwer News Service
October 27, 2008

As the stock market and the home mortgage market continue to take a beating, political watchers say it’s likely that not only might the tough economy bring in a win for Democrats in the presidential race, but also in at least two Michigan congressional districts that have been staked out by Republicans for decades.

While polls for candidates in the heavily watched 7th and 9th congressional districts show mixed messages about whether Democrat Senate Minority Leader Mark Schauer (D-Battle Creek) could take out freshman U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg (R-Battle Creek) in the 7th or if former lottery commissioner Gary Peters could upend 16-year veteran U.S. Rep. Joe Knollenberg (R-Bloomfield Hills) in the 9th, many say the GOP has reason to worry.

For starters, in these traditional heavily Republican geographic areas, it’s not unusual now to see plenty of yard signs, bumper stickers and other paraphernalia rooting for the “other team.”

And Democrats are running a solid campaign, with Mr. Schauer having out-fundraised his opponent by more than a half-million dollars. While Mr. Peters raised $1.3 million less than the incumbent, he joined Mr. Schauer in using those funds to fill the airwaves with campaign ads.

Republicans must certainly worry, too, that even when his opponent in 2006 didn’t put up quite as much fight, Mr. Walberg won his seat far more narrowly than watchers anticipated against a little known candidate.

Then comes the current environment in which the approval rating of the president — the top Republican — is at its lowest point, and the chances of the two men holding onto their seats is even less certain.

There’s even talk from some people that the anger could trickle into the 8th congressional district, where U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Brighton) has enjoyed a comfortable lead in the polls against challenger Democrat Bob Alexander.

While most say it’s not likely and Mr. Roger’s campaign said Mr. Alexander is “whistling in the wind and hoping for a miracle” if he thinks he’ll topple the incumbent without the kind of money and name recognition Mr. Rogers has going for him, Democrats still wouldn’t sneeze at the possibility of getting a third Republican district back on their side of the aisle.

Another variable that is anybody’s guess is how many of the unprecedented number of registered voters will show up at the polls on November 4. If the hefty amount of new voters show up for Barrack Obama and the Democrats, as experts guess that most will, then that could further lock in a victory for blue-party congressional candidates.

While its anybody’s guess whether the Democrats’ poll that says Mr. Schauer and Mr. Peters are leading their races is accurate, or whether the reverse is true as told by Republican polls, one thing seems certain in this volatile election year:

People are angry and looking for a scapegoat, and unless they find someone else to pin their troubles on, it may just be Congressmen Walberg and Knollenberg.

For nearly 50 years in Michigan, Gongwer News Service has provided independent, comprehensive, accurate and timely coverage of issues in and around Michigan’s government and political systems. For subscription information, including a free trial, visit Gongwer online.