by Gongwer News Service
November 10, 2008

Election day has come and gone, can 2010 be that far away? And what does the election immediately past tell us about the one soon to come?

Politics has long proven itself the gift that keeps on giving. Despite the grumblings that the presidential election was the longest election in U.S. history, Michigan is already engaged in the 2010 elections. One can thank Attorney General Mike Cox for that, with his decision two days after the election to create an exploratory committee for governor.

The results of last Tuesday bear repeating: Democrat Barack Obama’s win and the state’s U.S. delegation flipping from 9-6 in favor of Republicans to 8-7 in favor of Democrats; U.S. Sen. Carl Levin (D-Detroit) winning re-election and outpacing the number of votes he got four years ago; the state Supreme Court chief justice, a Republican, getting bounced in a shocker, tipping the balance of the court 3-3 with one swing vote; House Democrats increasing their ranks for the fourth-straight election and holding 67 members next term; and Democrats sweeping all education board races.

So the past being prologue, what does the election indicate for the future?

In Michigan, at least, the GOP got sandbagged by its own presidential candidate, John McCain, when he pulled stakes out of the state in early October.

Most pundits “pundificating” after the election agreed that not only did that move zap resources for Republican campaign efforts down the ticket, it also sucked the air out of enthusiasm from GOP voters even if Alaska Governor Sarah Palin had brought new pizzazz to the ticket.

Pundits said Republicans never found a consistent counter to Mr. Obama’s message of change and hope. And they didn’t organize as well as Democrats, particularly when it came to reaching voters via technology, particularly younger voters.

But what about the other races? No doubt there were hard-fought battles between U.S. Rep. Joe Knollenberg (R-Bloomfield Hills) and former Lottery Commissioner Gary Peters, along with U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg (R-Tipton) and Senate Minority Leader Mark Schauer (D-Battle Creek). The ad wars were ferocious in both campaigns, and part of the result was chalked up to the national Democratic wave surfing into congressional districts.

The GOP lambasted Democrats for their attacks on Chief Justice Clifford Taylor, saying the “sleeping judge” ad that Democrats ran against Mr. Taylor was an outright lie. Republicans holding up the affidavit of one of the attorneys on the case in question said they had the proof. But Democrats, led by Chair Mark Brewer, who has had his sights set on Mr. Taylor for years, countered with the two women who brought the case in the first place, saying they saw the justice snoozing during oral arguments.

Surprisingly, when it came to the state House races, Republicans by-and-large sighed with relief, saying the results of Tuesday could have been a lot worse. Given earlier indications, Republicans could be sitting with as few as 20 seats in the 95th Legislature, but instead they have 43 members in their ranks.

So, looking specifically at the GOP, what does last Tuesday indicate about their prospects in 2010?

One, Democrats don’t think their opponents have any, which isn’t the most surprising reaction.

Two, 2010 will be a very different election indeed.

Democrats will be the incumbent party in the governor’s office, which will be the top of the ticket race. With the state’s economy not expected to rebound by then, expect jobs and the economy to still be the top issue on the minds of voters.

Republicans will have two years to get their messaging back on track, but then again, Democrats will have the same two years to do the same.

And the legislative races will be a whole new ballgame because 30 of the 38 seats in the Senate will feature no incumbent, meaning many of the sitting lawmakers in the House will likely glance at the chances of upward mobility in the Capitol, leaving more open seats in the lower chamber than expected.

And Democrats will face what their GOP counterparts did this year — more open seats to defend in 2010, including those held by more moderate Democrats who could give Republicans a chance at a fight.

Until then, the behind-the-scenes work rebuilding the Republican Party and building on the gains of the Democratic Party will begin as voters finally get a chance to not think about either one of them for a while.

For nearly 50 years in Michigan, Gongwer News Service has provided independent, comprehensive, accurate and timely coverage of issues in and around Michigan’s government and political systems. For subscription information, including a free trial, visit Gongwer online.