Was 19th the Game Changer?

by Tom Shields
November 16, 2009

Driving past Lansing’s Hart-Kennedy House — home of the Michigan Democratic Party — you can just make out the figure of Marty Griffin, pinned to the clothes line, left hanging out to dry.

The 19th District special election had all the makings of a barnburner election that would rival the 1985 Monsma-Ehlers special for control of the state Senate.

Instead, it was nothing more than a fizzling false alarm, with Democrats sitting on the sidelines and watching Mike Nofs and the Republicans run away with victory.

Never in recent political history has one party given so little to a race that meant so much. The Democrats made their first and maybe fatal mistake when they decided to hold the special off until November.

They came off a huge election, with a machine that won everything in sight. Meanwhile, the Republican Party was broke, disorganized and without leadership. With all the momentum, a president who was still the beacon of hope, and Governor Jenny in control of calling the election, some political wizard decided to take his foot off the Republicans’ throat and not only let them off the mat, but give them 10 months to regroup.

I’m not sure why the Dems decided not to play in this race.

Even MichiganLiberal.com called this race “a tune up for 2010.” The left-leaning website called the 19th “a weak GOP lean, although it has become increasingly Democratic over the past two election cycles.” And, that was the same way Republicans saw it.

This was Mark Shauer’s seat. He won the seat with 56 percent in 2006, and by even more in his race for Congress. Obama won the district with 55 percent of the vote last November. The seat had three Dem state representatives. This should have been a no-brainer even with a bad candidate. And Marty Griffin was certainly not a bad candidate.

Griffin was a candidate with a track record of pulling Republican and Independent votes. The Democratic Party had over $1 million in the last two elections to get and keep him elected. When Rep. Simpson (D-Jackson) bowed out of the race, it appeared Griffin was the chosen one.

It appears that all Marty Griffin got for his trouble was one press release from his party, a lame YouTube video of Mark Brewer in front of a landfill, and a couple of recorded robo-calls from Obama. No party fundraising. No fancy mailers. No TV ads for Griffin, or against Nofs. Griffin would have grounds to sue Mark Brewer for non-support.

Griffin ran on a slogan of “the independence to fight for us.” But my guess is that he ended up being too independent for the party folks writing the checks to fight for him. He wasn’t pro-choice and he wasn’t a lock for labor. I’m curious — will this be the same litmus test the party will apply to Andy Dillon if he decides to run for governor?

All of this is ironic, as Republicans went all out for an Independent-Republican endorsed by the MEA and other unions. Newly elected Republican Party Chair Ron Weiser, Senate Republicans, and supporters like the Michigan Chamber saw this race as Gettysburg. The special election was an opportunity to stop the Democrat march to 2010 in its tracks.

While some will argue that too much money was spent to guarantee Nof’s victory, the truth is that special election expenses can be replaced. And it’s money that the Republicans may not have to spend next year.

Republicans now have the momentum swinging in their direction headed into 2010. In the state Senate, the Democrats now have to flip four seats without losing any they currently hold to take control. To retain control, Republicans now only have to win maybe four of 11 potential battleground seats.

With polls showing Independents moving to conservative candidates, and the top Republican gubernatorial candidates all beating Cherry, Republicans are now taking a new look at their chances for winning the state House.

In the wake of every election year, you can look back and usually point to one or two events that swung momentum and turned the election toward one side or the other.

In 2010, it could be the decision by Brewer and Company to leave Marty Griffin hanging out to dry.

Tom Shields is founder and president of Marketing Resource Group (MRG), a Lansing-based political marketing and public relations firm.