Fat Lady Approaching for Dems

July 23, 2010

Take yourself back to election night 2008. The scene is a huge park underneath the picturesque skyline of Chicago, with hundreds of thousands of citizens making a little history. President-elect Barack Obama and family walk onto the stage amidst shouts, tears, joy and a change you can believe.

If you were a Democrat you savored the moment. Good thing you did, because those days are long gone.

The only thing Democrats are savoring now is the fear that come November, a political tidal wave will engulf the party and its candidates.

Even the White House press secretary conceded the other day that the U.S. House could go Republican.

Closer to home, if the election were held today, Barack Obama would be a major factor in the outcome — and he’s not even on the ballot.

It is striking the similarities between the new president and Michigan’s outgoing governor.

Both came into office hoping to fashion a new culture where bipartisan cooperation would reign in a new day. It rained all right…on their parade.

With the Republicans in Washington enforcing party discipline under fear of who knows what, you saw zero GOP votes for health care.

The president didn’t help his bipartisan standing by indirectly whacking a GOP congressman the other day while in Holland. The congressman failed to support one of the president’s major recovery policies, yet Mr. Obama noted that it “didn’t stop [him] from being at ribbon cuttings” the president was attending. “Cheap shot” and “unpresidential,” noted U.S. Representative and GOP gubernatorial candidate Pete Hoekstra.

In Lansing, Gov. Granholm did score some bipartisan wins on high school graduation standards, a smoke-free Michigan and others, but she will leave office with her hope of more inter-party cooperation being just that, a faded hope. And note that neither of the two Democrats who want her job has asked for her endorsement.

Against that backdrop then, Democrats are running for governor and the Michigan House and Senate. And if they aren’t, they should be in a bit of a funk.

Lansing pollster Bernie Porn reports that Republican voters are geeked and ready to vote. Stirred on by the Tea Party movement, you could write a scenario that results in a major GOP comeback — including taking back the Michigan House.

Porn says the hardcore Democrats are still hanging tough with the president, but his policies are viewed with some disdain by independent and soft Democrats. That means they could flip to GOP candidates if their current malaise is not cured and there is no elixir in sight.

A couple of months ago, the Ds were holding fast to some signs, ever so faint, that the economy was coming back.

“Hey, if we’re on a roll by September and October, we can salvage this thing,” was the thinking on the Democratic side. And the polls reflected an uptick of optimism.

Not any more. The consumer confidence numbers are again heading south, with the economy close behind.

Labor leaders confess that once folks lose hope they figure their vote doesn’t count, so they stay home on election day. That is a de facto vote for the Republicans.

Having constructed this doom and gloom picture, recall that four months until November is forever. Who knows what might happen?

President George Bush the First had a whopping public approval rating just after the first Gulf War, and one year later he was turning the Lincoln Bedroom over to Mr. and Mrs. Clinton.

Dick DeVos erased a 20-point lead that Gov. Granholm once held, and he lost by 14.

And ask former Gov. Jim Blanchard how the inevitable victory can turn into a defeat.

It’s not over until the fat lady sings, and even though she is not on stage at the moment, she appears to be riding an elephant in that direction and the president is feeding it along the way.

Tim Skubick is Michigan’s Senior Capitol correspondent and has anchored the weekly public TV series “Off the Record” since 1972. He also covers the Capitol and politics for WLNS-TV6 in Lansing.

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A Little Face Time
It is infinitely more fun to cover a campaign when you can talk to the candidates — no offense to all the handlers, consultants, hangers-on and everyone else who is paid to get in the way of direct conversations between journalist and subject.

Ditch all the buffers and you can really learn what is going on in the candidates’ heads.

There was one of those unique days recently when both Andy Dillon and Virg Bernero were in the same town, being interviewed in the same building, and they were gracious enough to share a little face time, with no go-betweens.

Democrat Dillon knocked down a piece of popular wisdom. That “wisdom” suggests that since the House speaker will have a tough time luring hardcore Democrats to vote for him, the only way he can win is to attract independents and some GOP voters.

Nope.

“I’m not counting on crossovers to win. I do not need them,” he said, boldly going against what the punditry class promotes.

Dillon admits his opponent has a pretty good lock on the special interest groups, but, “I’m talking to the voters directly and I’ve got, in my view, the majority of the votes in the Democratic Party. My profile appeals to them.”

So there you have it. Despite being pro-life, anti stem cells, and having fewer union endorsements than the mayor, he still wins the majority of Democrats.

Bernero is sure not buying that. Not for a second.

“We have all these endorsements from the key constituencies of the Democratic Party. Who will show up for Andy Dillon?” he wonders.

The feisty Bernero was more than eager to denounce all the polls supposedly showing him behind anywhere from 10 to 20 points. (It is now down to nine.)

“This is a bunch of nonsense. It’s a bunch of crap. Let’s get real,” he said, taking a potshot at the number crunchers.

He rejects it as stale data, and before anyone writes him off he suggests with 50 percent of the Democrats undecided, he can win — and will. (That is now down to 39 percent.)

The chances of him winning?

“At least 50-50 percent or even 55-45 percent now today,” he asserts.

Dillon pegs his own odds at better than 50-50 while conceding, “The wolves are out to get me.” And he smiles when asked, “Will they?”

“No. We’ll win.”

You’ll have the final say on who is right.

That Was the Question
GOP candidate for governor Pete Hoekstra had a split second to make a decision: stay seated or walk out?

Roll the tape back to last week in Holland, the place Hoekstra calls home. He was in the audience near the front with about 300 persons behind him. On stage stood the president of the United States.

Mr. Obama was on Hoekstra’s turf to cut a ribbon at a new car battery plant, and the president wanted to showcase how his new energy policies were paying off with new jobs and new hope for Michigan’s lackluster economy.

As a veteran congressman of 18 years, Republican Hoekstra knew the drill. When the boss shows up in your backyard, you show up “out of respect for the office.” It’s called protocol, and even though Hoekstra took some flak from the anti-Obama wing of his own party, he knew he had to be there.

What he didn’t expect was what had him thinking: stay or walk out?

The White House Press Corps had been tipped off that there would be something in the president’s speech dealing with Hoekstra. Hoekstra got wind of it, but he had no idea what it would be. He was pretty sure Obama would not endorse him for governor.

What the president did do was to criticize those in Congress who had not supported his policies but yet still find time to “show up at a ribbon cuttings.”

Bam. There it was. The moment Hoekstra had been wondering about. Had he had any hair on the back of his neck, it would have stood up. The question was, would Hoekstra?

In that split second the choice was made: he sucked it in and sat still, while he wondered what everyone behind him was thinking or whispering.

The president never mentioned Hoekstra’s name. That would have been bad form. He left it to the media and the audience to read between the lines.

After the speech, everyone grabbed a shovel for the groundbreaker, and just after the first blade of dirt was tossed, the national and state media swarmed all over Hoekstra.

“It was unpresidential and a cheap shot,” he retorted.

In showing you how clumsy this White House can be, it managed to hand reporters a new lead for their story that night — and it was not about the president embracing new energy in Holland.

Instead, Hoekstra gained a ton of free media all over the state just when he needed it most.

Frankly, he owes the president a thank-you note.

And while Hoekstra is at it, he should take a second to thank that little voice in his head that said, “Don’t leave!”

Kinda Shocked
State Senator Patty Birkhotz was sitting at home the other night when the phone rang. The person on the other end wanted to know who she favored for governor.

Republican Birkholz from the west side of the state explains the call was from the Rick Snyder campaign.

So far this is a pretty routine story. Lots of folks are annoyed by those calls almost daily. But the next question really got her attention.

“Would you favor Patty Birkholz” as a running mate with Mr. Snyder, the caller asked Ms. Birkholz.

“I was kinda shocked,” she recalls.

Yeah, but what did you say?

“Well, I said, of course I would support Patty Birkholz on the ticket,” she laughed.

It is known that Mr. Snyder is testing both current and former legislators for the second spot on the ticket, and he calls that a “good idea,” but his campaign also reports he is testing other, non-political names as well.

Some might see this as a bit premature, since it’s not clear if the Ann Arbor business guy will be the GOP nominee. But it is consistent with Snyder, who has a vision and a plan, and finding someone compatible with both is his objective.

So what about Birkholz? Since her name was officially in the mix, is she interested?

“I would love to help the next administration in any way I can,” she answered without answering the question.

So if he asked, would you say yes?

“Obviously, there are a lot of things to consider with that.”

But you would not say no?

Now she is laughing again as she starts to move away from the camera. “This is a no-fair interview. I have to get back to my office.”

Perhaps to answer some more campaign calls.