What a Difference a Year Makes

by Tom Shields
March 19, 2010

Just a year ago, the pundits had the Republican Party on the verge of extinction. Time Magazine said, “Republicans have the desperate aura of an endangered species,” and speculated that they could sink to the level of a third party in a two-party system.

John Cherry looked like a prohibitive favorite for the Dems’ pick for governor, and the Senate Democrats were measuring Mike Bishop’s office for drapes.

What a difference a year makes.

Republican governors in Obama states like Virginia and New Jersey. A Republican senator from Massachusetts and here in Michigan, a landslide state Senate victory by Mike Nofs in a seat won by Obama and considered a safe bet for the Democrats in 2010.

As we enter the engagement period of the 2010 election cycle, the polls and pundits are all predicting a GOP year for Michigan and the nation. Our polls have seen a swing of almost 20 percentage points toward Republicans when asking Michigan voters which party does a better job of running state government (from -8 percent to +9 percent).

Many people who voted for change in 2008 did not get the change they were looking for in 2009. The voters are clearly supporting candidates who promise less government. The unorganized Tea Party movement is held together by its common opposition to increased government spending and higher taxes — issues that align them with the Republicans in 2010.

And though we are four months out from the primary and seven months out from the general election, each party’s candidate field for governor of Michigan seems to be almost set. Now seems to be as good a time as ever to handicap the race for the Governor’s Office.

Democrat Primary
The shift in the political winds has swept the best candidates out of the Democrat race for governor. After John Cherry, Bob Bowman and Denise Ilitch decided that 2010 wasn’t going to be their year, the Democrat Party is left with three candidates who, collectively, probably do not have 50 percent name I.D. or enough money in the bank to cover Rick Snyder’s monthly consultant bills. Our polls show “Don’t Know” clearly leading the field with 64 percent, followed by Dillon (18 percent), Bernero (9 percent) and Smith (7 percent).

One year ago, Andy Dillon was the one candidate for governor who Republicans did not want to face. They may get their wish as Dillon finds himself in political primary purgatory. He’s too liberal for the conservatives and too conservative for the Democrat Party hierarchy. His endorsement from the building trades will help soothe some fears from some Dems, but his pro-life beliefs and his legislation to control the health care benefits of public employees has already cost him support from the AFL-CIO and puts him on a crash course with pro-choice Democrats and the MEA.

Of course, the candidate benefiting from all this is Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero. Bernero is the true accidental candidate whose stock has risen as all the other candidates dropped out of the race. The ultimate political opportunist, Bernero seems to be benefiting from the mere fact that he’s not Andy Dillon. Though he’s down in the early polls, if he can cobble together support from the liberals, pro-choice women, the unions and urban voters, he could be tough to beat in the August primary.

It appears that the only way Alma Wheeler Smith is going to get some respect for her candidacy is by recruiting Aretha Franklin as one of her co-chairs. With little money and a small base of support, she is destined to play third fiddle in the Democrat primary.

Republican Primary
In the Republican primary, Rick Snyder, the tough rich nerd, is shaking up the field by dumping $3 million in the campaign — outspending the other three candidates by a 10 to 1 margin.

Our most recent poll shows this turning into a three-way race with Hoekstra (21 percent), Cox (21 percent) and Snyder (20 percent) in a dead heat, and Mike Bouchard stuck at 10 percent.

The shortage of funds in the state’s matching fund pool could have a significant impact in the Republican primary as the other three candidates struggle to match Snyder’s bankroll. If Snyder continues at this pace, he could spend $8 to $10 million in the primary — more than double what his three opponents will spend combined.

One of the key developments to watch will be the endorsement of Right-to-Life. Snyder doesn’t meet RTL endorsement criteria, and if they weigh into the primary, one of the other three candidates could be propelled to front-runner status.

While Snyder’s media blitz has him moving up in the polls, it appears that west Michigan voters aren’t ready to embrace the nerd and are sticking with Congressman Pete Hoekstra. The candidate with the smallest war chest has the strongest base of local support. Hoekstra needs to raise the funds to defend his base and expand it to win the primary. But for now, Hoekstra sits on his west Michigan perch, until someone knocks him off.

One candidate trying to do just that is Attorney General Mike Cox. While Cox and Hoekstra have been neck and neck in the polls for the past year, Snyder’s media buy seems to have cut into Cox’s support the most. But Cox has stockpiled some cash, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him the next one out of the gate to run some advertising to keep pace. With money, political savvy, statewide name I.D. and Asian Carp, expect Cox to be in the thick of things in August.

Three million dollars and a cute ad campaign have bought Ann Arbor businessman Rick Snyder about 50-percent name ID and some early support. But it remains to be seen if the “tough nerd” campaign can hold the momentum for the long haul. Historically, wealthy business candidates like Dick Chrysler and Jim Nicholson have jumped out to early leads by spending early money — only to fade in the end. Snyder must put a little more meat on those nerdy bones to withstand the attacks that are sure to come in June and July.

The most puzzling campaign for the Republican nomination is the campaign team of Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard and Secretary of State Terri Land. Both candidates have won statewide Republican primaries but have not yet clicked as the east/west team. Running fourth in the early polls may help them stay out of the line of fire when the real mud starts flying, but they need to come up with something to break out of the cellar and into the pack.

While it’s still early, primary money tends to flow to the front-runners. A candidate can lose in the early months and still be the first across the finish line in August, as long as the candidate keeps in position to win.

General Election
With 12 different potential match-ups for the general election, we don’t have room here to speculate on each race. But our polling shows each of the Republican candidates beating each of the Democrats by margins of 15 percent to 22 percent. The mood of the electorate and the general quality of the candidates certainly favor the Republicans in November.

The potential entry of former Republican Congressman Joe Schwarz as an Independent candidate could muck up the race. Our polling shows him pulling just 14 percent of the vote, with 8 percent coming from the Republican candidate and 5 percent from the Democrat candidate. In a close race, he could be the difference. But right now, it’s anything but close.

If I were a bookmaker, here are the early odds I’d give each candidate. But I’d wait until the first of August or November to place your bets.

GOP Nomination:
Hoekstra: 2-1
Cox: 2-1
Snyder: 3-1
Bouchard: 5-1

DEM Nomination
Dillon: 2-1
Bernero: 5-2
Smith: 15-1

General Election
GOP Nominee: 2-3
DEM Nominee: 3-1
Independent: 25-1

Tom Shields is founder and president of Marketing Resource Group (MRG), a Lansing-based political marketing and public relations firm.

Daddy-Daughter Dance

by Tim Skubick
March 12, 2010

This is a tale of four fathers with daughters.

Let’s start with Bob Bowman.

For two full terms he worked as state treasurer for Gov. Jim Blanchard. “I’ve always been interested in being governor,” Bowman confessed after he left state government.

But the interest remained unexplored until Lt. Gov. John Cherry dropped out of the race for governor at the start of 2010. Bowman’s chance was at hand.

He formed an exploratory committee. But within days, Bowman had pulled out before ever getting in.

In part, the decision was based on the reaction of his daughter. The high school sophomore was two years from graduation and, like most kids her age, wanted to finish high school where she was, with all those old friends at her real home, and not in some “new home” in Michigan.

To be sure, it was not the only reason for Bowman to stay in Connecticut. But best we can tell, it had an impact on Bowman the daddy, which trumped Bowman the would-be governor.

He confided, “maturity sucks.” But he picked kid over career.

Rick Snyder started his family discussion about running for governor over a year ago. His wife brought it up first, and they went to the three kids next. He was concerned about his daughter and how she would react when other kids said nasty things about her dad. After all, he is a nerd.

She said she could handle it and, as he periodically checks in with her, Snyder reports she continues to handle it. Talk to him two months from now when the nasty segment of the campaign may be in full bloom.

Genesee County Democrat Dan Kildee also was caught off guard by the earth-shattering Cherry announcement. He dusted off his desire to be governor shortly thereafter and went to his family, too.

Kildee said his son was all for the bid for governor. His daughter was not, but when he formed his exploratory committee and said, “I intend to run,” he reported that his family was on board.

Maybe the daughter said a prayer? Kildee decided not to run.

House Speaker Andy Dillon was standing in the back of the room waiting to say hi to a bunch of business executives. It was the first of what would be a grueling and unending schedule of thumb-sucker events that candidates must endure to self-promote their candidacy.

As Dillon leaned against the wall waiting to take the microphone, someone noted that he had seen a picture in the newspaper of Dillon and his teenage daughter. It was taken the day before in Dillon’s hometown of Redford, where he and his family launched his bid to be governor.

Any man who has a daughter and saw the photo felt the tenderness between the two.

“That was a really beautiful picture,” the person whispered to Dillon.

He had been so busy, he had not even seen it, let alone had a chance to cherish the moment. And then without prompting he whispered, “Yeah, I won’t see her again until November.”

Voters rarely see the personal sacrifices politicians make in order to serve the public. They never get credit for that from an uncaring electorate. When they are out working a room, daughters and sons, not to mention spouses, are left to keep the home fires burning, wondering when the candidate/parent will be home.

You gotta wonder how many of those on the home front secretly hope the candidate loses.

For Bowman and Kildee, no worries there.

Tim Skubick is Michigan’s Senior Capitol correspondent and has anchored the weekly public TV series “Off the Record” since 1972. He also covers the Capitol and politics for WLNS-TV6 in Lansing.

Tim Skubick Extra Extra… (A weekly bonus only for Dome readers)

You Can’t Make This Stuff Up
In an unbelievable move, some key union leaders have asked former candidate for governor John Cherry to reconsider his decision to drop out of the race.

It is another in a series of unprecedented twists in the Democratic race for governor that has turned this spectacle into a certified train wreck.

Here is the irony.

Last December, when then-candidate John Cherry knew his campaign was about to self-destruct, he went to the UAW and pleaded for its early endorsement. Cherry needed an infusion of money and grassroots support to keep his front-runner campaign alive.

The union stiffed him.

Within a month, Cherry shocked the political establishment by packing it in.

Now, within the last week, the union leaders went back to Cherry hoping he might change his mind. He told them no. Cherry will not confirm any of this, only to say, “I don’t know what you are talking about.”

The fact that this happened underscores that some elements in the state’s labor movement are not overjoyed with the current field for governor that includes House Speaker Andy Dillon, Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero, and Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith.

Each has enough baggage to warrant an attempted re-do on Cherry.

Labor appears to be fragmented, which is not always a healthy sign — and also nothing new.

Dillon is getting the endorsement of the building-trades unions. The leadership was pleased when the Redford Democrat took on Gov. Granholm last year when she wanted to slap a hold on badly needed construction jobs from a proposed coal-fired energy plant.

Bernero may get the UAW endorsement, but there are mixed signals on that.

And Ms. Smith, who clearly has the resume to be governor, is not raising any money, and it appears no one is coming to her rescue.

On top of all that, the Teamsters may be looking at making an endorsement in the other party, which would not be out of character for them.

All of this is reaching critical mass as union leaders are set to huddle behind closed doors on March 12, hoping against hope to find a consensus candidate for governor.

“I think we can,” reflects David Hecker, who runs the Michigan Federation of Teachers.

Based on all these latest signals, Mr. Hecker might want to think again.

Messin’ with Mikey
Michigan’s political landscape is strewn with popular wisdom that turned out to be false. To wit, John Engler can’t beat Gov. Jim Blanchard; Jennifer Granholm can’t beat money bags Dick DeVos; and now comes…Mike Bouchard will disconnect from the governor’s race to seek a more winnable seat in Congress.

Where the heck did that notion come from?

Certainly not from Bouchard, whose campaign sent out a to-the-point statement: “I’m running for governor. I am not running for Congress.”

Nonetheless, seems like all the other campaigns have heard the “rumor” that goes like this: Bouchard’s gov effort is not getting traction despite his impressive $800,000 fundraising; the GOP folks in D.C. want to take out Oakland County incumbent Congressman Gary Peters in the worst way and figure Bouchard is the guy to do it; dissolving the Bouchard-Terri Land ticket would be a twofer for the party, in that Land could run for retiring Congressman Vern Ehlers’ seat in her West Michigan home base and forget about being lieutenant governor with Bouchard.

Far-fetched? Of course. Totally out of the question? Of course not.

Just for the sake of filling out the rest of this blog, let’s assume that the buzz has some gravitas. The first challenge for Bouchard is how does he “message” this thing in a positive way?

His detractors will quickly tag Bouchard with job-hunting for his own personal gain. The story line? Unable to win the governor nomination, political opportunist Mike Bouchard went hunting for a post he might win. When will this guy stop running for every office that opens up?

The tag could stick, but Bouchard could counter it with the following. The party came to me with the desire to win back control of the Michigan congressional delegation so that we could effectively fight President Obama’s socialist policies. If we defeat Peters, and Terri holds onto the GOP seat on the west side of the state, we can do more good for Michigan. So it is with reluctance that I bow out of the governor’s race for the good of the party.

Hogwash, says the Bouchard team while reminding that some of the other contenders for governor would love to undercut his effort by fanning a story that puts El Sheriff in a negative light.

Bouchard’s guys can’t prove that, but they are surely thinking it.

Switalski Hit by Rangel Mess
State Senator Mickey Switalski probably doesn’t know Congressman Charlie Rangel from Adam, but Mr. Rangel has had a profound impact on the senator’s effort to unseat incumbent Congressman Sandy Levin this August in the Democratic primary.

Funny how seemingly unrelated political events can be linked, and in this case the New York congressman’s behavior has influenced the outcome of the contest between the Macomb County senator and the veteran Democratic congressman from Royal Oak.

Check this out. Switalski shocked the political establishment last year by announcing that he would challenge Sandy Levin, who has served in Congress since 1983.

What did the Mickster have to lose? He was term limited out of Lansing, had nowhere to go, so why not take a swipe at the 78-year old incumbent? And if lightening struck, Switalski could trade his senator label for U.S. congressman.

To be charitable to the challenger, it was a long-shot from the get-go, long before Mr. Rangel got into trouble over ethical questions surrounding his personal finances. In the wake of that, Rangel stepped down as chair of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee.

And guess who is the new chair?

Much to Switalski’s chagrin, it’s none other than Sandy Levin.

Levin now has control over congressional spending or, if you want to be blunt, he can influence where the pork barrel funds go. Which means he can campaign back here and tell local voters, “if you send me back to Congress I will make sure Michigan gets its fair share of federal support.”

In a battered economy, any ray of hope will be greeted with applause. And how does Switalski counter that?

He might say, “I’m against pork barrel spending.”

But Levin can counter, “So am I, but if other states are going to take it, Michigan is now at the head of the line to get something, too.”

Mr. Levin will milk this chairmanship for all it is worth, and Mr. Switalski can’t do much about it — except send a nasty note to Rangel for messing up what little chance he had of winning in the first place.

Can the Candidates
Do the Job?

by John Lindstrom
Gongwer News Service
March 5, 2010

Herewith a point of argument that includes a prediction: if the professionals involved in government — that is, the people who work in and around state government, be they bureaucrats, lobbyists, policy analysts, reporters and others — were the only ones who could vote in the 2010 gubernatorial election, Michigan’s next governor would be John “Joe” Schwarz.

In fact, it is arguable that if those persons were the only ones who could vote in the election, Mr. Schwarz, former state senator, former member of Congress, former Republican candidate for governor, would win in a walk.

And in light of the surprising announcement Thursday night that former Genesee County Treasurer Dan Kildee was dropping out of the Democratic race barely more than a week after he got in, that prediction seems even more…predictable.

That prediction is not a knock, well not a hard knock, against any of the other remaining candidates running for governor: Republicans Attorney General Mike Cox, Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, U.S. Rep. Pete Hoekstra, Ann Arbor business executive Rick Snyder and Sen. Tom George (R-Kalamazoo) or Democrats House Speaker Andy Dillon (D-Redford Twp.), Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero and Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith (D-Salem Twp.).

But it is an expression of the frustration the professionals in government have endured, and the hope they have that whoever is elected governor in November knows what the hell he or she has to do and, even more importantly, how to get it done.

The field for governor should be set now. Others could still get in the race (and with Mr. Kildee’s exit some top Democrats might hope another name could emerge), but after the angst of the last several months that seems unlikely.

In the past two weeks there have been about a half-dozen major developments in the race: Mr. Kildee got in for the Democrats (to the relief of top Democrats worried about a Bernero/Dillon race), Mr. Dillon confirmed he was running, Mr. Dillon showed strength in new polls and so did Mr. Hoekstra and Mr. Snyder, and then to the surprise and some anguish of Democrats, Mr. Kildee got out.

The other development: Mr. Schwarz formed an exploratory committee for governor, to run as neither a Republican nor a Democrat. Until Mr. Kildee’s departure, Mr. Schwarz’s decision was probably the biggest surprise. Mr. Schwarz had been seen wavering on a possible independent bid. Earlier in the year he had said he was about 70 percent certain to run. By last week that had fallen to 50 percent certainty.

So his decision to establish an exploratory committee came as water in the desert for some people. There are lots of professionals eager to help his campaign, should Mr. Schwarz decide to run (which he has not yet).

Politics, and by extension government, is one of the few areas where professionalism is scorned by the public. Nobody wants his or her heart surgery performed by an amateur surgeon; nobody wants someone whose flying experience is limited to model airplanes piloting a 747 across the Atlantic; nobody wants a baker who has only made cookies with a Kenner Easy-Bake oven whipping up the daughter’s wedding cake; but nobody wants professional politicians trying to make government work. (Check out the reception Christopher Reeve’s character enjoyed when he defended professional negotiators in the film The Remains Of The Day, one of the few times the arts pay any tribute to the skill running a government can require.)

Yes, in a democratic republic we are all politicians because we are the government, and it is important to ensure that the viewpoints of all are included in the governing process. But there also have to be people who know how the law works, what the processes are, how to balance the books, how to make sure the cops show up when called and the inspectors find the nasty bugs whipped up in the peanut butter.

Talk to the people involved in government and it is striking how unenthusiastic they are about the candidates running for governor. They are not critical of each person’s intelligence. They worry somewhat about their different viewpoints, but they also know that whether from the right or the left, the person in charge tends to moderate, so eventually the new governor will lead more from the middle of the bird than from one of the wings.

But what the professionals worry about is: can any of these guys do the job? Can they figure out how to break down the partisan barriers that block so many things from taking effect? Can that person work efficiently — in other words, when he or she makes a pronouncement, will the bills or executive orders be ready to go in short order and not months? Can that person set an agenda and, as much as anyone can in a leadership position, stick to it? Can that person manage the different and sometimes competing elements of government so that the state advances by whatever measure one uses to determine advancement?

And can that person knock heads together when needed and still keep people talking to each other so resolutions are reached?

The fact that so many professionals, before Mr. Schwarz got in and Mr. Kildee got out, were interested in either Mr. Snyder or Mr. Kildee for governor should tell one something, at least about the other candidates. Mr. Snyder is backed by buckets of top business executives, who see him as a moderating influence outside of the bloodletting that goes on in government. Similarly, Mr. Kildee was seen as having effective governing cred that could have played well to the Democratic interest groups. But Mr. Kildee’s departure leaves the large middle ground of Michigan voters to consider Mr. Snyder. But Mr. Snyder is also a largely unknown quantity. The question remains, can he do the job?

Mr. Schwarz is a known quantity. He has become an independent because he disagrees with the direction (whichever direction that is) the Republican Party is heading. But he refuses to become a Democrat (in fact, Democrats tried hard to get him to switch parties and he declined). If Republicans now label themselves Reagan Republicans, Mr. Schwarz is a Lincoln Republican, a Teddy Roosevelt Republican, an Eisenhower and Rockefeller and Vandenberg and Milliken Republican. In other words, he is the kind of Republican many Republicans now reject by simply saying, “They weren’t conservatives.” (Maybe not, but boy could they govern.)

Nobody among the professionals has any doubt that Mr. Schwarz could do the job. Which is exactly why if the election were left to them, Mr. Schwarz would now profitably be measuring the drapes in the executive office for when he moves in next January.

But the election is open to all, and it is a fool’s errand to say who will win in November. The likely winner will come from one of the two parties, and right now the GOP has the edge. Everyone expects the primaries and the general election following to be so vicious that the public will feel comfortable voting only if the polling booths are in shower stalls. Right now, the thinking is that Mr. Schwarz’s presence could affect the outcome, but how is unknown. He could rob voters from both camps, so which benefits from his presence is a cipher.

And with a more limited Democratic primary, Mr. Schwarz might cut a larger figure in a general election, should he have the money needed to run a competitive campaign.

But he could also force the other candidates to do one of two things: try to measure up more to Mr. Schwarz as a knowing, competent candidate: or move farther to the fringe, pointing to Mr. Schwarz as one more example of the kind of politician trying to steal the public’s money and rights.

The one thing professionals hope for, and are worried about, is the election will come off as an amateur hour.

John Lindstrom is publisher of Gongwer News Service. For nearly 50 years in Michigan, Gongwer News Service has provided independent, comprehensive, accurate and timely coverage of issues in and around Michigan’s government and political systems. For subscription information, including a free trial, visit Gongwer online.

Mike Bouchard Runs
as Straight-Shooting Voice
of Experience

Oakland sheriff says he knows how to get state government back in line

by Susan J. Demas
February 16, 2010

Hurricane Katrina was slamming into New Orleans, leaving most of the coastal city underwater. The Category 5 hurricane would eventually claim the lives of 1,836 souls, making it the deadliest storm in eight decades.

Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard

It was August 29, 2005, and the raspy voice on the other end of the line belonged to Jefferson County Parish Sheriff Henry Lee. They had no communication system or bullets and desperately needed help. As the director of government affairs for the Major County Sheriff’s Association, Mike Bouchard was the man to call.

“And then his undersheriff called and he was actually crying,” the Oakland County sheriff recalls. “They couldn’t get any help out of the federal government, his deputies hadn’t slept in 48 hours, a lot of them didn’t know if their own families were alive — but they were still on the job.

“I called every federal agency I could to get approval. So they ran us around the circle like that for 24 hours. And I just said, ‘forget it.’”

That’s when Bouchard phoned three other large sheriff’s departments in Georgia, Alabama and Florida to form one of the first caravans with his Oakland County team. They headed down immediately and Bouchard surveyed the damage via helicopter. Then deputies started 12-hour shifts, setting up their own self-contained compound just outside the city in the parking lot of a shuttered restaurant.

“The official team from Michigan arrived eight days later,” Bouchard notes. “That’s kind of like arriving to the house fire after it’s already burned down.”

As a police officer across five decades, as well as a former state representative and senator, Bouchard says he’s seen his share of government incompetence in other ways. Long before 9/11, his law enforcement department was looking into a new communications system after a radio failure during the 1996 Ford Wixom plant shooting. The state later decided to transition, as well, but Bouchard says government bureaucracy was a roadblock to agencies working together, which ultimately cost taxpayers more money.

That’s one of the reasons why Bouchard, 53, decided to run for governor this year.

“Government is a very different animal than the private sector,” says the lifelong Michigander. “One of the things that [former Gov.] John Engler proved was that because he knew government, and state government in particular, so well, he could really be very successful in moving his agenda, whether you agreed with it or not. And I think that’s important to be effective, that you have to know the system in which you operate.

“[Gov. Jennifer Granholm] doesn’t have that knowledge or experience, and I think she even admitted that’s been one of her shortcomings. So I think the next governor is going to get into office with an even more pressing to-do list and even less time to do it in. And unless they know firsthand not only what they want to do, but how they want to do it, we’re going to be in a bad spot. And I’m confident that I know both, and I’m the only one who does — and ultimately, that’s why I decided to run.”

In a year when most candidates are campaigning as outsiders — with Ann Arbor businessman Rick Snyder’s frequent attacks on “career politicians” and U.S. Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-Holland) playing up his days as an executive at Herman Miller — Bouchard is taking a different tack. The Republican is running as the straight-shooting voice of government experience.

It’s an interesting tactic from a former businessman who hasn’t worked in state government for 11 years, leaving to manage a department of more than 1,200 employees in the most prosperous county in the state. It wouldn’t be a stretch for the sheriff to claim the outsider mantle, as well. But as one of only two candidates in the GOP field with legislative experience — Sen. Tom George (R-Kalamazoo) being the other — Bouchard is clearly counting on it being an asset.

Indeed, his running mate, current Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land, says that his time as a lawmaker was the biggest selling point for her.

“We need someone right now who really knows Michigan and understands how government works,” she says.

Bouchard has signed up for the business-friendly Republican agenda of less regulation and taxes — he was the first gubernatorial hopeful to take the no-tax pledge and the only one to attend the Tea Party protest of the North American International Auto Show in January. What separates him from some of the competition is his belief that the best way to achieve his agenda is through legislative know-how.

The sheriff is practically running as the heir to John Engler, with whom he consulted before jumping into the race in June (“He’s always been a valued confidante,” Bouchard notes.). Although Big John has stayed out of the race, his wife, Michelle, sent a clear signal last year by endorsing Bouchard together with Jane Abraham, wife of former U.S. Sen. Spencer Abraham.

He made a splash by stating that he’s not afraid to make unpopular decisions and be a one-term governor. Bouchard touts his experience working with Democrats on signature legislation, like Proposal A, which fundamentally changed school funding, and the sex offender registry.

“It varies by issue and it varies by district,” says Bouchard, who wears a sheriff pin even on his tailored suits. “All those things play into how you get to 56 and 20 [majority votes in the House and Senate].”

Early attacks
“What’s Sheriff Mike Bouchard been up to?”

That’s the question drivers whizzing down I-75 in Auburn Hills are being asked on a billboard erected this month that advertises a political hit-job website, www.oaklandcounty.net. The personal attacks on the father of three come courtesy of the nonprofit Michigan Civic Educational Fund, which includes longtime GOP operative Joe Munem, as well as Democrats Michael Greiner and Jeff Schroder. Chair Cecil St. Pierre, a former Warren City councilman, has contributed to the campaign of Bouchard rival Attorney General Mike Cox, who denies any involvement. Radio ads have been pulled.

Land describes Bouchard as easygoing. “When things get tense on the trail, he’s always ready with a joke,” she says. “I’m like that, too. He brings people back to reality. This is about our families, our state. He doesn’t let the little things bother him.”

But the constant browbeating does seem to have worn on Bouchard, who also ran for U.S. Senate in 2006. He says there’s “no question” that this is the nastiest campaign he’s been in.

“What other business do you know where somebody walks in and says, ’I’d like to be vice president of sales,’” Bouchard says, pale blue-green eyes crinkling. “And the first thing you say is, ’Well, the reason I think you should hire me is that the other three applicants, they cheated when they were in kindergarten.’ In almost any other environment, any other business, people would say, ‘What? What are you talking about? Tell me about yourself. Tell me why you’re right for the job.’ That’s what I’m focused on.”

Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop (R-Rochester) has known Bouchard for 20 years, back to his time as a local prosecutor. Although he’s staying out of the governor’s race, Bishop says he’s “sickened” by the attacks.

“I know Mike and I know his family,” says Bishop, who’s running for attorney general. “I know that’s not the person he is…In Oakland County, we know Mike Bouchard as a strong leader who will step up and do the right thing.”

Bouchard with running mate Terri Lynn Land and campaign chair L. Brooks Patterson

Land takes a tactical view. “People want to define you,” she says. “And we’re not going to let that happen.”

To combat that, Bouchard has hired Scott Howell. He’s a protégé of Karl Rove, best known for crafting the infamous 2006 ad against then-U.S. Rep. Harold Ford Jr. in which a dolled-up blonde croons that she met him at a Playboy party and whispers, “Harold, call me.” Bouchard’s campaign manager, Ted Prill, worked on Bob McDonnell’s successful gubernatorial bid in Virginia last year.

They’re not the only heavy hitters in the race. Snyder has hired former John McCain message guru John Weaver, Cox has national GOP pollster Neil Newhouse on the payroll and House Speaker Andy Dillon (D-Redford Township) is hoping to capture some of Barack Obama’s magic by teaming up with AKPD Message and Media founded by David Axelrod and David Plouffe.

But Bouchard dismisses the competition with an almost off-handed dig (“It takes a lot more high-powered effort sometimes to package something that doesn’t have the same record.”).

He’s not the first or only gubernatorial hopeful to have been “smeared” — Hoekstra, Snyder and Cox have taken their lumps in robocalls and mailings. But the anti-Bouchard billboard has been the most public display.

While some in the field have been barnstorming and fundraising for more than a year, Bouchard sat back as Oakland County Executive L. Brooks Patterson flirted with a run. After his longtime colleague said no in April, Bouchard dove in with Patterson as his campaign chair.

“To be honest with you, I had not planned to run for governor,” he says. “I am very happy with what I’m doing…But as I looked at the field developing — it’s not a knock on the other candidates, but I just didn’t see a candidate who had the combination of experience and skills that could step in on the first day and personally know what to do in Lansing as governor and with the legislature.”

Still, one of the most persistent knocks on Bouchard is that he doesn’t have the fire for the job. He’s not stepping down as sheriff — nor did he three years ago in challenging U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Lansing).

“That’s more of other camps wanting to snipe and try to throw stuff at me,” he sighs in his slightly nasal pitch. “I don’t even entertain that. There’s no halfway running statewide. I’ve basically given up my personal life, my free time and a good chunk of my family life.”

Although Bouchard is the third candidate from Southeast Michigan, he says he’s not worried about finding a niche. He also dismisses the idea that he was encouraged to run due to many Republicans’ concerns that Cox could implode, given scandal in his past.

“I’m just basically running my campaign focused on why I think I’m the most qualified,” the Birmingham Republican says. “What happens to other candidates is not something I wake up thinking about.”

Land is the most popular statewide official. Last year, she was mulling her own bid for governor and expected to be a force — although she initially expected it would be a two-person battle with Cox. She and Bouchard had gotten to know each other well on the ’06 campaign trail and met for coffee (“I never look at anyone as a combatant or enemy,” Bouchard says.). In June, she shocked the political establishment by endorsing him. Three months later, he formally picked her as his lieutenant governor.

“She has the skill and the ability to be a great team member to govern with,” he raves. “The next governor is going to have to make the pivot real quick from campaigning to governing. And I thought she was uniquely positioned to do both. So I asked her. No one had ever picked a running mate so early. I honestly hadn’t made any list. The more time I spent with her, it became more obvious and natural. So she was my list.”

But the choice was dismissed by some as stunt, especially to pull in West Michigan support, something that Bouchard denies. “That’s not it at all. I find it odd that another campaign would criticize another campaign for trying to gain momentum when that’s all they’ve been trying to do for the many months before I was even in the race.”

When U.S. Rep. Vern Ehlers (R-Grand Rapids) unexpectedly announced his retirement this month, the campaign got another jolt, as the buzz was that Land would jump ship to run for Congress. But she says she’s not going anywhere, even though she said she’s “very honored” by the attention.

“I’ve spent eight years in state government with great employees,” Land says. “I want to take that experience and move Michigan forward. That’s where my heart is.”

Bouchard has turned heads by raising $900,000 in 2009 — which he says should end rumors that he’s not in it to win it. Though it was half of Cox’s take, Bouchard points out that he was in the race for less than half the time. Snyder was the frontrunner with $3.2 million, but all except $500,000 came from his own bank account.

“People have been trying to pass rumors that you can’t raise any money and you’re going to drop out,” Bouchard says. “I mean, all these other camps spend most of their day trying to plant rumors and attack other camps. I don’t listen and I don’t do that. I don’t play that game.”

Law enforcement
Mike Bouchard never planned to be a cop (“Actually, I kind of backed into that,” he grins.). He started out in pre-med at Michigan State University in 1974.

It may seem hard to believe, because the plain-talking, weight-lifting, concealed-weapon-carrying sheriff is hardly the egghead type (former state GOP chair Saul Anuzis once described him as a “smart guy,” but not a “thinker” or “philosopher. He’s a street politician.”) With his meticulously combed dark brown hair, flecked with a bit of gray, and easy smile, Bouchard is regular-guy handsome.

But Mike McCabe, his undersheriff in Oakland County who was also his classmate at Brother Rice High School in Bloomfield Township, recalls the basketball champion as “sharp, quick-witted and a very good student.”

“He was very gregarious, outgoing — not a whole lot different from how he is right now,” McCabe says. “He’s an approachable, high-energy kind of guy. In high school and college, people knew he was going places. You have a sense when certain people have it.”

Born in Flint on April 12, 1956, Mike was the youngest of Doris and Don Bouchard’s three boys. The family moved to Oakland County when he was two. At 18 he started volunteering for a program for abused children under Dr. Jerry Tobias, a University of Detroit education professor and police officer. He was the one who urged Bouchard to go to the police academy — which he did, graduating as class valedictorian in 1975.

A year later, Bouchard earned his bachelor’s in criminal justice and police administration from MSU and began working in the Southfield Township police youth bureau. He was hired as a full-time officer for Beverly Hills in 1977. He would go on to serve in the Bloomfield Township department, where he earned nine citations for actions in the line of duty and had a knack for catching the media’s attention.

But, says Bishop, “He’s never been one to jump out in front and say, ‘Look at me. I am the guy.’ He’s a real team player.”

McCabe, who has served in the sheriff’s department for more than 30 years, recalls that former Sheriff John Nichols always saw something special in Bouchard. “Nichols would always say, ‘You’re going to be the next sheriff.’ Mike always poo-pooed that.”

It’s Bouchard’s background as a “cop’s cop” that won him the endorsement of his former Senate colleague, Phil Hoffman, a retired sheriff’s deputy.

“At the end of the day, Mike Bouchard probably has the best quality you could ask for of a governor — he’ll keep our cities safe,” the Horton Republican says. “If you’re not safe in your home, all the education, all the health care you want won’t be of any use.”

Even on the campaign trail, Bouchard’s law enforcement duties come first, like rushing to a grizzly incident in Commerce Township hours before the governor’s State of the State Address on February 3.

“I dropped what I was doing…to go to a sad and tragic scene — the kind of thing I’ve seen in my 25-year career in law enforcement,” he says. “A mother had stabbed her one-year-old. No question I’m affected by what I see and the kinds of things I’ve worked on. It makes me sensitive on how we can better protect people and how we can better protect children, because that’s what I’ve done virtually my whole adult life.”

Bouchard also led a team to Ground Zero following the 9/11 attacks and was part of both the rescue and recovery missions.

“It was a mess. It was staggering — the sights, the smells,” he recalls. “It was very, very overwhelming. The destruction of that city was staggering. I had been there about a year before…I was cutting through a building that was pretty much destroyed — the ceiling, the windows, all sorts of stuff were destroyed — and I realized that I had had lunch in that atrium. I couldn’t even recognize it, it was so demolished.”

His medical training wasn’t a factor in his trips to the World Trade Center or New Orleans, however; he says he’s never thought of the road not taken as Dr. Bouchard. “I’m not the kind of guy who looks back. I have no regrets. My philosophy is pretty basic, in that if I don’t love what I’m doing, I won’t do it…Nothing to me is a next step or a paycheck.”

Leap to politics
Every election, voters are greeted with assorted campaign fliers wedged in their doors. But if it weren’t for those advertising nuisances, Bouchard might not be a happily married man today.

He had been elected to the Beverly Hills City Council in 1986, after an unsuccessful state House bid in 1984 and work on both Ronald Reagan’s re-election campaign and local judicial races. The police officer’s political appetite was whetted after investigating the crimes of an Oakland County serial rapist.

“I thought some of the victims were getting kind of an unfair deal in the system,” he recalls. “And I kind of saw how everything I did, whether it was the arrest or how the victims were treated or how they [criminals] were convicted, had to do with politics.”

While running for re-election, he dropped one of his brochures at a house, triggering fate. Pam Johnson picked it up and asked some of her friends what they knew about the guy. They set up a blind date and the rest was history (“I guess those brochures are good for something,” Bouchard smiles).

The couple married in 1988 and they have three children: Mikayla, 20, an MSU student, and two boys, 13 and 16, whom Bouchard declines to name out of privacy concerns. Mikayla has been in the spotlight, doing an ad for his U.S. senatorial campaign and a campus event this go-around, but he says it’s been a hard adjustment.

“Well, you know, it wasn’t my first choice, but the one thing that the campaign folks said is that it helped connect people to me as a person, not just as a political figure,” he says. “But we tried not to put her name or specific things out there everywhere. But you know, given the Internet and the world, you can find some of that stuff out, but I’m a very protective dad.”

After serving two terms as Council president, Bouchard was elected to the state House in 1990 in what was then the 65th District representing Birmingham and Bloomfield. In 1991 he won a special election to the state Senate, where he served for eight years, representing both the former 13th and 16th districts.

Bouchard swats away the idea that times were good in the 1990s and leaders didn’t make enough structural reforms. He calls 1991 “one of toughest years” and trumpets lawmakers cutting $1 billion in budget, particularly from welfare, without raising taxes.

“We did very tough things,” he recalls. “So tough that we had picketers outside the office for almost a year. There were picketers on the Capitol lawn…it took a court order to get them off.

“It’s kind of like lots of times when you take a house and you kill yourself fixin’ up the house,” the Republican adds. “And a couple years later, it’s like, ‘Oh, what a great house.’ The work tends to go away. You tend to forget — oh, my God, how many hours was I up all night stripping paint and redoing the lighting, all the work for a fix-it-up house. Well, that’s kind of like 1991, ’92, ’93. We were doing some very heavy lifting, so much so that Michigan became the example in the country for welfare reform.”

On his work on Proposal A, Bouchard stresses that “the key focal point at that time was to figure out a way to bring down property taxes,” not stabilize education funding. He also worked on banking reform and regulations for the new Detroit casinos. Former U.S. Rep. and state Sen. Joe Schwarz (R-Battle Creek) served with Bouchard for eight years and describes him as a “very good senator, easy to get along with. He was a good, solid caucus member — not too far right as some senators were on occasion.”

Then in 1998, Nichols died, leaving the Oakland County sheriff post open. Bouchard was encouraged to throw his hat in the ring by many — including McCabe — and was appointed in 1999 by a three-person panel. He describes it as a better fit with his young family (“Not necessarily that I would have more free time, but that I would be spending the night at home more.”).

Republicans recruited him to run against Stabenow in early 2005, but Bouchard had a health scare with high blood pressure and cholesterol. At the urging of his physicians, he dropped out (“In life, when you get a wakeup call, it’s my belief that you should answer.”). Months later, after the Rev. Keith Butler had declared, Bouchard announced he had a clean bill of health and leapt back in at then-U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole’s urging.

He went on to easily win the 2006 primary, although he admits some Republicans’ feathers were ruffled. Despite some high-profile campaign events with Kid Rock and then-first lady Laura Bush, Bouchard took a 16-point beating in November. He says that it just wasn’t in the cards, given the political winds at the time.

“There’s not really much you could have done differently,” he reflects. “The fact is, the president [George W. Bush] was very personally unpopular and every time he came in for a visit, I went down in the polls.”

State CEO
Michigan was on the right track in the 1990s under John Engler, Bouchard says. The problem, as Bouchard he sees it, is that Granholm didn’t continue on the path to reform Michigan over the last seven years — something he would have.

“I think things would be dramatically different, certainly a much better fiscal place and a much better place for business,” he says. “Because the tough decisions they have ignored, I would have not.”

Bishop describes Bouchard as a mentor, with whom he worked on identity theft legislation.

“He’ll tell it like it is; he won’t candy-coat it much,” Bishop says. “He has a direct style; he’s very anti-politician. People he works with know he means business.”

Bouchard’s No. 1 goal as governor is to get the state straightened out. As head of one of the 20 largest sheriff’s departments in the country, he says he knows what it takes to run a big organization. He notes Oakland County is the only one in the state with a AAA bond rating and a stable outlook. Taking the county’s model of a three-year rolling budget, Bouchard would institute a two-year budget at the state level, something endorsed by Democrats Dillon and Granholm, as well.

For someone who never planned to run for governor, he has a clear idea of how he’d fill the job. And Bouchard credits his family for inspiring him to take the plunge.

“This wasn’t always on my to-do list,” he acknowledges. “For me at the end of the day, all I really care about is that these problems are fixed so that my kids and anyone else’s kids that want to stay here have an opportunity to stay here. The bottom line is, I want my kids to be around me. I don’t want to have to get on a plane to visit them because they couldn’t find a job and a future in this state.”

Susan J. Demas, a regular columnist and contributor to Dome, is 2006 Knight Foundation Fellow in nonprofits journalism and a political analyst for Michigan Information & Research Service.

Blown Away

by Tim Skubick
November 20, 2009

Out of the blue, the governor was asked what title she would use if she wrote a book about her tenure in Lansing.

How about Blown Away?

You’ll recall that was the line she used in one of her State of the State speeches as she gushed about how her economic recovery plans would eventually blossom.

“In five years you’ll be blown away,” she confidently reassured everyone.

Sitting at the anchor desk that night, one recalls thinking, “That line is going to be used against her by somebody down the line.”

And true to form, it was and still is — and in retrospect even the governor concedes the line was a mistake.

But those two words capture the essence of this governor, which will be part of her legacy.

You can almost hear her and Team Granholm behind closed doors brainstorming about the lousy state of Michigan’s economy and wanting desperately to say something positive. Being positive is in her DNA, and her troops, eager to please her, know it.

Everyone in the room believed that the seeds the governor was planting would result in a diversified economy long after she was gone. So wanting to strike that positive note, you could see them nodding in agreement that in five years, folks would be blown away.

Here was the rub, and this is what has plagued this governor from the get-go. There was no hard-nosed realist in the room to shake everyone to their senses, someone to stomp on the rose-colored glasses and urge everyone to get real. Far as we can tell, very few of her inner circle advisors have regularly challenged her, taken her on and pointed out the consequences of some of her decisions.

It is not healthy for any governor to have group-think, with everyone on the same page all the time.

Somebody should have said, “Governor, I understand your desire to say something nice, but this line is a ticking time bomb. You may feel good about using it, but it’s going to come back to haunt you. Some opponent is going to say, why do we have to wait five years? Why didn’t you do something before this so we don’t have to wait? Take the line out, now.”

If somebody in the room did say that, apologies to that person, but it’s highly unlikely that happened.

It is widely believed in this town that the governor does not like confrontation, although she has certainly had to confront it and deal with it successfully. But in the political sandbox, sometimes you have to throw sand in the other guy’s eye just to get your toy back and establish who is in charge.

Not wanting to hurt someone’s feelings is an admirable human trait, as is wanting to be uplifting and optimistic, but sometimes that desire gets in the way of reality, which in this case produced the blown-away line.

As for what her book title would be, the governor confesses she has none, but she says the content would focus on leadership in a crisis.

And for the first time, she concludes that her “biggest flaw, my biggest liability” was the lack of legislative experience before she became chief executive to cope with this never ending economic mess.

As for a chapter in her book on another political career, she promises: “I have no intention of running for anything again.” With the exception, she laughs, of a post on the PTA.

Tim Skubick is Michigan’s Senior Capitol correspondent and has anchored the weekly public TV series “Off the Record” since 1972. He also covers the Capitol and politics for WLNS-TV6 in Lansing.

Tim Skubick Extra Extra… (A weekly bonus only for Dome readers)

Farm Turf War
As long as everybody stays in his or her own lane, life in this town can be tranquil. Alas, when somebody wanders onto someone else’s hallowed ground, you get a turf war.

And we’ve got a dandy one unfolding right now.

In this corner, Gov. Jennifer Granholm. And in that one, the state’s farming community led by the Michigan Farm Bureau.

Seems she wants the power to pick the director of the state Agriculture Department, and the other guys want the status quo, which allows the Agriculture Commission to do the picking.

Granholm has at least one supporter, former Gov. Bill Milliken. Back in the ’70s when his administration was up to its eyeballs in the PBB controversy — cattle eating feed laced with that chemical and then humans eating that meat — Milliken locked horns with B. Dale Ball.

Ball was anointed by the ag commission. Milliken wanted to fire him but couldn’t. Milliken lost.

This governor is not in the middle of any such controversy, but she’s created another one by encroaching on Farm Bureau turf, and the farmers are winning.

Ms. Granholm figures, as did other governors before her, that it makes sense to give the chief executive the authority over appointments so that the buck stops at the governor’s desk.

One could argue that indirectly she has that power now, in that she appoints the commission. So if she wanted person “X” to run the department, she calls her appointees and tells them what to do.

Governors tend to favor direct power over indirect, but the state Senate last week undid what the governor hopes to do.

Now the game comes down to Democrats in the House. Will they side with their governor or the farmers?

Since she may lose this battle, the governor’s folks are making noises about finding a compromise to end this little turf scrimmage. And it is simple: she picks the director with the advice and consent of the board.

Done.

Bouchard the Dancer
Mike Bouchard is no wimp. He proudly packs heat and is not afraid to use his hefty size to his advantage, so you would think he’d be the last guy to be an accomplished dancer.

Ah, but he is.

Watch how he dances around a very sticky wicket unfolding in the GOP primary for governor, namely what to say about Mike Cox, a fellow candidate for gov.

Cox is soaking up lots of free media, but not the kind you would necessarily want, over his role in investigating an alleged party at former Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick’s pad. Cox concluded, “What party?” and tagged it an “urban legend.” But apparently not everyone agrees, although there is no proof to the contrary.

So the issue on the campaign trail is the credibility of Mr. Cox.

Your comments Sheriff Bouchard?

“I’m just focused on my message,” he laces up his dancing shoes.

“So you are not going there?”

“I’m not going there,” he heads for the dance floor.

“Why don’t you want to go there?”

“I’m focused on my issues,” he taps away.

He is pressed further and notes that if other candidates or voters want to comment on Mr. Cox, they are free to do so, as he stands up for free speech just as long as he doesn’t have to participate.

“I’m not worrying about somebody else. That isn’t where my focus is,” he goes on.

Well, if that is the case, then Mr. Bouchard should be willing to promise that he will resist the temptation to exploit the story for his own benefit.

He waltzed away from the pledge, dredging up a line we never heard before, “I’m focused on exactly where I’m focused,” he repeated redundantly.

Points for staying on message, but one final attempt: “Why not make the promise?”

Here’s why not: “Because I’m bigger than you,” he smiles.

Nuf said.