Columns



Tim Skubick

Power Hookup

June 24, 2011

At first blush you’d be inclined to say these two groups have nothing in common. But blush again.

The Michigan Education Association and the American Association of Retired Persons met for an hour recently as they search for common ground on the political front.

What’s the old adage about power in numbers?

The teachers union brings about 2 percent of the state’s population to the table, and if you roll in spouses and relatives it is a force to be reckoned with. There are about 1.5 million retirees in the state and, while AARP doesn’t have all of them, that clearly is a voting bloc that carries some oomph.

Put them together, which is what the talk was all about, and you could have one of the strongest voting blocs in the state. Which is why talks will continue toward that end.

AARP, of course, is still fighting mad about the Gov. Snyder pension tax. Even though he bent some on it, it is still a non-starter for the group.

The MEA has retirees as well, but is still up in arms with the Gov. Snyder emergency manager law that could see union clout eroded — if not eliminated — in some financially troubled school districts

“How do we work together?” is the central question posed by one of the participants.

Recalls were discussed but were not the major topic. Theoretically, the MEA-AARP axis could have an impact if it decided to get behind any of those. The reading from this vantage point is that they won’t. It’s probably a waste of time, energy and scarce financial resources, with what payoff?

If you recall a GOP lawmaker from a predominately Republican district, you may get rid of that person but end up with another elephant lover in the same seat. Everything ventured and nothing gained.

Looking toward the 2012 election, when the entire Michigan House is up for grabs, is a more likely joint project.

An endorsement from the combined groups would be a much sought-after blessing. What candidate would not want access to the combined email lists of the two organizations? What candidate would not want the grassroots volunteers that could knock on doors, do literature drops and work the phones to get out the vote?

In addition to the grunt work that could be done, here’s the real kicker: members of both groups vote. Oh yeah.

Internal numbers reveal that 74 percent of AARP members show up at the polls and the MEA number is just north of that, approaching 80 percent. That, in a word, is huge.

If they can work out the logistics, the coalition could rival the power of organized labor or even the business community, which in recent years has gotten its collective act together, too.

Oh, was it mentioned that both groups do have some money to toss around as well?

The fact that they are talking suggests that they want to work this out. Egos have to be meshed and points of disagreement need to be minimized, which is no easy task when you consider the MEA leans a little left while AARP leans a little right, but it might work.

Then again, over the years other would-be “powerful” coalitions have talked about joining forces. But in the end, all it produced was just that…talk.

Tim Skubick is Michigan’s Senior Capitol correspondent and has anchored the weekly public TV series Off the Record since 1972. He also covers the Capitol and politics for WLNS-TV6 in Lansing.

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Tea Party Awakens
All of a sudden the sleeping giant known in some circles as the Tea Party has awakened from its winter hibernation to get back in the political game.

In the space of a couple of days, media email bins were overflowing with T.P. missives, which is in stark contrast to previous months when you never heard a peep from them. Most surprisingly, they said nothing about the tax hike the governor imposed on some seniors.

The datelines were Washtenaw County, Alpena, Onaway (where the heck is that?) and Cheboygan, where the “Tea Party leaders” were calling on the governor and their local solons to pass a Michigan Right to Work law.

Don’t these folks read the papers?

The governor says this is not a top priority for him, and although he has said he would sign such a bill if it got to his desk, he is not pushing for it to get there.

Undaunted, the press releases suggest it is “Un-American” to not have this law.

House Republicans have made noises about working on this bill, but up until now the governor has prevailed in asking them to hold off while he works on reinventing Michigan.

Impatience may be growing among the more conservative and Tea Party-leaning Republicans to move on it soon: to wit the new news releases.

The T.P. gang from Newaygo County (is that anywhere near Onaway?) fired off a news release calling on the governor to knock it off with all this bridge stuff. The folks up there don’t want their tax dollars going into another span between Detroit and Windsor.

Don’t these folks read the papers?

The governor says their tax dollars will not go into the project, but the owners of the Ambassador Bridge disagree. Looks like the T.P. gang is going with the Morouns and not Mr. Snyder.

Maybe the Morouns have volunteered to buy them a boatload of tea?

Calley Is No Cherry
Former Gov. Jennifer Granholm had zero experience in Lansing when she decided to run for governor. So she picked a running mate who did. Gov. Rick Snyder did the same thing when he tapped Rep. Brain Calley for his running mate.

And there the parallel between the two governors and their second in command ends.

Ms. Granholm’s selection of veteran Lansing insider John Cherry was a grand move. He knew everyone. She knew no one. He knew how to make a legislative deal. She was better in a room by herself with a pen.

But somehow it sorta just didn’t totally work out. Cherry was used by her, and in the best sense of the word, but it never reached the level of the current dynamic duo.

The theme song for Gov. Snyder and Lt. Gov. Calley should be, “Wherever you go, whatever you do, we’re gonna go through it together.”

Gov. Granholm could not sing that tune, and the popular wisdom in town was Mr. Cherry was underutilized because there was only room on the stage for one star — and he was not it.

Gov. Snyder, in strong contrast, is fond of saying, “This is not about me. It’s about we,” and that certainly includes Mr. Calley, who has turned out to be the point man on every major item on the governor’s reinvention agenda.

Pension tax? Calley worked it.

Budget? Calley worked it.

Bridge? Calley is working it (but not getting very far).

The point is, Mr. Snyder has surrounded himself with a better team than the previous governor, who went through chiefs of staff like a knife through butter, and Calley does not have to claw his way into the inner circle. He is the inner circle.

Wonder if Mr. Cherry ever ponders what might have been had he worked for the Nerd instead of the Rock Star?

Columns

Tim Skubick

Navigating the Minefield
of Bipartisanship

December 17, 2010

You gotta wonder if the incoming governor was watching the president in Washington fighting off members of his own party after he fashioned a bipartisan package with the Republicans in Congress.

And if he was taking it all in, he must have thought, “Geez, Louise, this could happen to me!”

And Gov.-elect Rick Snyder would be right.

It is always messy when a political leader of one party bends to the demands of the other party, as Mr. Obama has unceremoniously discovered.

He pushed for more jobless benefits for the unemployed, the truly needy, while lining the pockets of the truly rich at the same time.

The liberal group MoveOn took direct aim at the guy it supported for president, with this: “A commitment to bipartisanship should not mean leaving principles behind.”

The president explained that if he had not compromised, there would have been gridlock and nobody would have gotten anything.

Fast forward to Mr. Snyder. Since he’s perceived to be a more moderate GOP governor than we’ve seen around these parts in 40 years, his boo birds will come from the ranks of Tea Party members or T.P. sympathizers in the House and Senate GOP caucuses. None of these folks ran on a plank of bipartisan cooperation with anybody. You won’t find even a hint of that in any of their 10-point plans.

But you do in Mr. Snyder’s. It was a major plank in his mantra to “reinvent Michigan.”

So far, no ultra conservative Republican has called him on it. There’s time.

Those conservatives will be more vocal when the new gov delves into public policy and compromises with the other side. The popular wisdom is that he will need Democratic votes on some of that stuff.

Just as the president took some hits, if you look at the numbers you’ll see the new governor won’t be immune either.

There are 64 House Republicans, and the governor only needs 56 to vote for his programs. Looks good on paper, but who are those 64?

Take this to the bank: not all of them are moderates, not all of them are into cooperating with the “enemy,” and it’s only a matter of ticks on the clock before they deliver that message to the state’s new CEO.

Some say the number of T.P. believers ranges between 10 and 20, and one seasoned lobbyist opines the number is even higher than that.

For the sake of discussion, let’s just say the number is 15. That means that instead of 64 votes, Mr. Snyder has only 49 — which is not 56.

Hence, he needs at least seven Democrats to get there, and, depending on the issue, that number could fluctuate wildly.

Some ultra conservatives are beholden first to the voters who sent them to Lansing. They can be loyal to the new governor as long as he does not propose anything that hacks off those supporters back home.

And again, the popular wisdom suggests once the new governor reaches the conclusion that some new revenue from somewhere is needed to balance the books, the right wingers will leave him high and dry.

So even though the prez and the new gov are from different parties, they share this common challenge of trying to keep the base of the party happy while cavorting with the bad guys to move an agenda forward.

It’s a tricky minefield to traverse.

Tim Skubick is Michigan’s Senior Capitol correspondent and has anchored the weekly public TV series Off the Record since 1972. He also covers the Capitol and politics for WLNS-TV6 in Lansing.

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Labor, Move Over
For years organized labor has been the heart and soul of the Michigan Democratic Party. Now, a prominent player who has benefited from that power is suggesting labor needs to move over.

Lt. Gov. John Cherry has surveyed the damage his party suffered on November 2 and come to the conclusion that now is the time for the state party to bring in more professions and to broaden its geographical appeal.

“For years the party was based in Southeast, Michigan,” he notes, adding that things have changed and the party needs to change, too. If labor is forced to give up part of its power, Cherry argues, that would be “healthy for labor and healthy for the party.”

Not sure how the good folks at Solidarity House feel about relinquishing their hard-fought place at the top of the Democratic food chain. Usually the powerful are not eager to share.

But share it must, if Mr. Cherry is correct.

The Flint Democrat points to the president, who reinvented the national Democratic Party in 2008 by attracting more young voters, more Hispanics and more independents to go along with the labor base.
.
But in 2010, when Barack Obama saw the coalition crumbling before his very eyes, he could not put Humpty Dumpty together again. Mr. Cherry figures if Michigan Democrats also fail, the Republicans could continue to control everything for a long time to come.

Some of the current frustration is being taken out on current state party chair Mark Brewer. He was at the helm when the GOP tide swamped Brewer and friends.

Cherry did not call for a new chair, but he says he wants to see someone who understands that the party needs to be reconstructed from the ground up, with labor at the table but not controlling every other seat at the feast.

Sharks After Brewer
Some sharks are out to get Marky.

When your team gets wiped out in the playoffs, you fire the coach. Democratic Party Chair Mark Brewer fits that description, based on what voters did to his party on November 2. So is there a movement afoot to remove him?

“I’m aware of that,” confesses a well-known Detroit Democrat who spoke only on the condition that the name be changed to protect the innocent, as Joe Friday used to say.

“Ivan” says “20 years is a long time to stay in one job [and] maybe Mr. Brewer stayed on the bus a little too long.”

A series of e-mails reveals the effort is indeed real, as various factions are chatting about what to do next.

One recognizable name has already surfaced, namely the woman who ran for secretary of state and lost by six points. Jocelyn Benson did better than any other Democrat on the statewide ballot.

She has said nothing about this, but it’s known that while she does not want to be party to a “dump Mark” movement, she has concluded that if a vacancy is created, she would be interested.

Put another way, she will not be in on the plot, but if it works she will be at the front of the line to benefit from same.

The governor’s office is reportedly aware of the grumbling over Mr. Brewer’s performance, although nobody really believes he or anyone else could have prevented the trouncing the Ds took at the polls. They lost virtually every statewide office to the GOP.

Weeks ago, Mr. Brewer, who enjoys the support of the UAW, pooh-poohed any speculation that somebody might come after him.

Perhaps he should take another look.

What a Difference a Year Makes

by Tom Shields
March 19, 2010

Just a year ago, the pundits had the Republican Party on the verge of extinction. Time Magazine said, “Republicans have the desperate aura of an endangered species,” and speculated that they could sink to the level of a third party in a two-party system.

John Cherry looked like a prohibitive favorite for the Dems’ pick for governor, and the Senate Democrats were measuring Mike Bishop’s office for drapes.

What a difference a year makes.

Republican governors in Obama states like Virginia and New Jersey. A Republican senator from Massachusetts and here in Michigan, a landslide state Senate victory by Mike Nofs in a seat won by Obama and considered a safe bet for the Democrats in 2010.

As we enter the engagement period of the 2010 election cycle, the polls and pundits are all predicting a GOP year for Michigan and the nation. Our polls have seen a swing of almost 20 percentage points toward Republicans when asking Michigan voters which party does a better job of running state government (from -8 percent to +9 percent).

Many people who voted for change in 2008 did not get the change they were looking for in 2009. The voters are clearly supporting candidates who promise less government. The unorganized Tea Party movement is held together by its common opposition to increased government spending and higher taxes — issues that align them with the Republicans in 2010.

And though we are four months out from the primary and seven months out from the general election, each party’s candidate field for governor of Michigan seems to be almost set. Now seems to be as good a time as ever to handicap the race for the Governor’s Office.

Democrat Primary
The shift in the political winds has swept the best candidates out of the Democrat race for governor. After John Cherry, Bob Bowman and Denise Ilitch decided that 2010 wasn’t going to be their year, the Democrat Party is left with three candidates who, collectively, probably do not have 50 percent name I.D. or enough money in the bank to cover Rick Snyder’s monthly consultant bills. Our polls show “Don’t Know” clearly leading the field with 64 percent, followed by Dillon (18 percent), Bernero (9 percent) and Smith (7 percent).

One year ago, Andy Dillon was the one candidate for governor who Republicans did not want to face. They may get their wish as Dillon finds himself in political primary purgatory. He’s too liberal for the conservatives and too conservative for the Democrat Party hierarchy. His endorsement from the building trades will help soothe some fears from some Dems, but his pro-life beliefs and his legislation to control the health care benefits of public employees has already cost him support from the AFL-CIO and puts him on a crash course with pro-choice Democrats and the MEA.

Of course, the candidate benefiting from all this is Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero. Bernero is the true accidental candidate whose stock has risen as all the other candidates dropped out of the race. The ultimate political opportunist, Bernero seems to be benefiting from the mere fact that he’s not Andy Dillon. Though he’s down in the early polls, if he can cobble together support from the liberals, pro-choice women, the unions and urban voters, he could be tough to beat in the August primary.

It appears that the only way Alma Wheeler Smith is going to get some respect for her candidacy is by recruiting Aretha Franklin as one of her co-chairs. With little money and a small base of support, she is destined to play third fiddle in the Democrat primary.

Republican Primary
In the Republican primary, Rick Snyder, the tough rich nerd, is shaking up the field by dumping $3 million in the campaign — outspending the other three candidates by a 10 to 1 margin.

Our most recent poll shows this turning into a three-way race with Hoekstra (21 percent), Cox (21 percent) and Snyder (20 percent) in a dead heat, and Mike Bouchard stuck at 10 percent.

The shortage of funds in the state’s matching fund pool could have a significant impact in the Republican primary as the other three candidates struggle to match Snyder’s bankroll. If Snyder continues at this pace, he could spend $8 to $10 million in the primary — more than double what his three opponents will spend combined.

One of the key developments to watch will be the endorsement of Right-to-Life. Snyder doesn’t meet RTL endorsement criteria, and if they weigh into the primary, one of the other three candidates could be propelled to front-runner status.

While Snyder’s media blitz has him moving up in the polls, it appears that west Michigan voters aren’t ready to embrace the nerd and are sticking with Congressman Pete Hoekstra. The candidate with the smallest war chest has the strongest base of local support. Hoekstra needs to raise the funds to defend his base and expand it to win the primary. But for now, Hoekstra sits on his west Michigan perch, until someone knocks him off.

One candidate trying to do just that is Attorney General Mike Cox. While Cox and Hoekstra have been neck and neck in the polls for the past year, Snyder’s media buy seems to have cut into Cox’s support the most. But Cox has stockpiled some cash, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him the next one out of the gate to run some advertising to keep pace. With money, political savvy, statewide name I.D. and Asian Carp, expect Cox to be in the thick of things in August.

Three million dollars and a cute ad campaign have bought Ann Arbor businessman Rick Snyder about 50-percent name ID and some early support. But it remains to be seen if the “tough nerd” campaign can hold the momentum for the long haul. Historically, wealthy business candidates like Dick Chrysler and Jim Nicholson have jumped out to early leads by spending early money — only to fade in the end. Snyder must put a little more meat on those nerdy bones to withstand the attacks that are sure to come in June and July.

The most puzzling campaign for the Republican nomination is the campaign team of Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard and Secretary of State Terri Land. Both candidates have won statewide Republican primaries but have not yet clicked as the east/west team. Running fourth in the early polls may help them stay out of the line of fire when the real mud starts flying, but they need to come up with something to break out of the cellar and into the pack.

While it’s still early, primary money tends to flow to the front-runners. A candidate can lose in the early months and still be the first across the finish line in August, as long as the candidate keeps in position to win.

General Election
With 12 different potential match-ups for the general election, we don’t have room here to speculate on each race. But our polling shows each of the Republican candidates beating each of the Democrats by margins of 15 percent to 22 percent. The mood of the electorate and the general quality of the candidates certainly favor the Republicans in November.

The potential entry of former Republican Congressman Joe Schwarz as an Independent candidate could muck up the race. Our polling shows him pulling just 14 percent of the vote, with 8 percent coming from the Republican candidate and 5 percent from the Democrat candidate. In a close race, he could be the difference. But right now, it’s anything but close.

If I were a bookmaker, here are the early odds I’d give each candidate. But I’d wait until the first of August or November to place your bets.

GOP Nomination:
Hoekstra: 2-1
Cox: 2-1
Snyder: 3-1
Bouchard: 5-1

DEM Nomination
Dillon: 2-1
Bernero: 5-2
Smith: 15-1

General Election
GOP Nominee: 2-3
DEM Nominee: 3-1
Independent: 25-1

Tom Shields is founder and president of Marketing Resource Group (MRG), a Lansing-based political marketing and public relations firm.

Daddy-Daughter Dance

by Tim Skubick
March 12, 2010

This is a tale of four fathers with daughters.

Let’s start with Bob Bowman.

For two full terms he worked as state treasurer for Gov. Jim Blanchard. “I’ve always been interested in being governor,” Bowman confessed after he left state government.

But the interest remained unexplored until Lt. Gov. John Cherry dropped out of the race for governor at the start of 2010. Bowman’s chance was at hand.

He formed an exploratory committee. But within days, Bowman had pulled out before ever getting in.

In part, the decision was based on the reaction of his daughter. The high school sophomore was two years from graduation and, like most kids her age, wanted to finish high school where she was, with all those old friends at her real home, and not in some “new home” in Michigan.

To be sure, it was not the only reason for Bowman to stay in Connecticut. But best we can tell, it had an impact on Bowman the daddy, which trumped Bowman the would-be governor.

He confided, “maturity sucks.” But he picked kid over career.

Rick Snyder started his family discussion about running for governor over a year ago. His wife brought it up first, and they went to the three kids next. He was concerned about his daughter and how she would react when other kids said nasty things about her dad. After all, he is a nerd.

She said she could handle it and, as he periodically checks in with her, Snyder reports she continues to handle it. Talk to him two months from now when the nasty segment of the campaign may be in full bloom.

Genesee County Democrat Dan Kildee also was caught off guard by the earth-shattering Cherry announcement. He dusted off his desire to be governor shortly thereafter and went to his family, too.

Kildee said his son was all for the bid for governor. His daughter was not, but when he formed his exploratory committee and said, “I intend to run,” he reported that his family was on board.

Maybe the daughter said a prayer? Kildee decided not to run.

House Speaker Andy Dillon was standing in the back of the room waiting to say hi to a bunch of business executives. It was the first of what would be a grueling and unending schedule of thumb-sucker events that candidates must endure to self-promote their candidacy.

As Dillon leaned against the wall waiting to take the microphone, someone noted that he had seen a picture in the newspaper of Dillon and his teenage daughter. It was taken the day before in Dillon’s hometown of Redford, where he and his family launched his bid to be governor.

Any man who has a daughter and saw the photo felt the tenderness between the two.

“That was a really beautiful picture,” the person whispered to Dillon.

He had been so busy, he had not even seen it, let alone had a chance to cherish the moment. And then without prompting he whispered, “Yeah, I won’t see her again until November.”

Voters rarely see the personal sacrifices politicians make in order to serve the public. They never get credit for that from an uncaring electorate. When they are out working a room, daughters and sons, not to mention spouses, are left to keep the home fires burning, wondering when the candidate/parent will be home.

You gotta wonder how many of those on the home front secretly hope the candidate loses.

For Bowman and Kildee, no worries there.

Tim Skubick is Michigan’s Senior Capitol correspondent and has anchored the weekly public TV series “Off the Record” since 1972. He also covers the Capitol and politics for WLNS-TV6 in Lansing.

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You Can’t Make This Stuff Up
In an unbelievable move, some key union leaders have asked former candidate for governor John Cherry to reconsider his decision to drop out of the race.

It is another in a series of unprecedented twists in the Democratic race for governor that has turned this spectacle into a certified train wreck.

Here is the irony.

Last December, when then-candidate John Cherry knew his campaign was about to self-destruct, he went to the UAW and pleaded for its early endorsement. Cherry needed an infusion of money and grassroots support to keep his front-runner campaign alive.

The union stiffed him.

Within a month, Cherry shocked the political establishment by packing it in.

Now, within the last week, the union leaders went back to Cherry hoping he might change his mind. He told them no. Cherry will not confirm any of this, only to say, “I don’t know what you are talking about.”

The fact that this happened underscores that some elements in the state’s labor movement are not overjoyed with the current field for governor that includes House Speaker Andy Dillon, Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero, and Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith.

Each has enough baggage to warrant an attempted re-do on Cherry.

Labor appears to be fragmented, which is not always a healthy sign — and also nothing new.

Dillon is getting the endorsement of the building-trades unions. The leadership was pleased when the Redford Democrat took on Gov. Granholm last year when she wanted to slap a hold on badly needed construction jobs from a proposed coal-fired energy plant.

Bernero may get the UAW endorsement, but there are mixed signals on that.

And Ms. Smith, who clearly has the resume to be governor, is not raising any money, and it appears no one is coming to her rescue.

On top of all that, the Teamsters may be looking at making an endorsement in the other party, which would not be out of character for them.

All of this is reaching critical mass as union leaders are set to huddle behind closed doors on March 12, hoping against hope to find a consensus candidate for governor.

“I think we can,” reflects David Hecker, who runs the Michigan Federation of Teachers.

Based on all these latest signals, Mr. Hecker might want to think again.

Messin’ with Mikey
Michigan’s political landscape is strewn with popular wisdom that turned out to be false. To wit, John Engler can’t beat Gov. Jim Blanchard; Jennifer Granholm can’t beat money bags Dick DeVos; and now comes…Mike Bouchard will disconnect from the governor’s race to seek a more winnable seat in Congress.

Where the heck did that notion come from?

Certainly not from Bouchard, whose campaign sent out a to-the-point statement: “I’m running for governor. I am not running for Congress.”

Nonetheless, seems like all the other campaigns have heard the “rumor” that goes like this: Bouchard’s gov effort is not getting traction despite his impressive $800,000 fundraising; the GOP folks in D.C. want to take out Oakland County incumbent Congressman Gary Peters in the worst way and figure Bouchard is the guy to do it; dissolving the Bouchard-Terri Land ticket would be a twofer for the party, in that Land could run for retiring Congressman Vern Ehlers’ seat in her West Michigan home base and forget about being lieutenant governor with Bouchard.

Far-fetched? Of course. Totally out of the question? Of course not.

Just for the sake of filling out the rest of this blog, let’s assume that the buzz has some gravitas. The first challenge for Bouchard is how does he “message” this thing in a positive way?

His detractors will quickly tag Bouchard with job-hunting for his own personal gain. The story line? Unable to win the governor nomination, political opportunist Mike Bouchard went hunting for a post he might win. When will this guy stop running for every office that opens up?

The tag could stick, but Bouchard could counter it with the following. The party came to me with the desire to win back control of the Michigan congressional delegation so that we could effectively fight President Obama’s socialist policies. If we defeat Peters, and Terri holds onto the GOP seat on the west side of the state, we can do more good for Michigan. So it is with reluctance that I bow out of the governor’s race for the good of the party.

Hogwash, says the Bouchard team while reminding that some of the other contenders for governor would love to undercut his effort by fanning a story that puts El Sheriff in a negative light.

Bouchard’s guys can’t prove that, but they are surely thinking it.

Switalski Hit by Rangel Mess
State Senator Mickey Switalski probably doesn’t know Congressman Charlie Rangel from Adam, but Mr. Rangel has had a profound impact on the senator’s effort to unseat incumbent Congressman Sandy Levin this August in the Democratic primary.

Funny how seemingly unrelated political events can be linked, and in this case the New York congressman’s behavior has influenced the outcome of the contest between the Macomb County senator and the veteran Democratic congressman from Royal Oak.

Check this out. Switalski shocked the political establishment last year by announcing that he would challenge Sandy Levin, who has served in Congress since 1983.

What did the Mickster have to lose? He was term limited out of Lansing, had nowhere to go, so why not take a swipe at the 78-year old incumbent? And if lightening struck, Switalski could trade his senator label for U.S. congressman.

To be charitable to the challenger, it was a long-shot from the get-go, long before Mr. Rangel got into trouble over ethical questions surrounding his personal finances. In the wake of that, Rangel stepped down as chair of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee.

And guess who is the new chair?

Much to Switalski’s chagrin, it’s none other than Sandy Levin.

Levin now has control over congressional spending or, if you want to be blunt, he can influence where the pork barrel funds go. Which means he can campaign back here and tell local voters, “if you send me back to Congress I will make sure Michigan gets its fair share of federal support.”

In a battered economy, any ray of hope will be greeted with applause. And how does Switalski counter that?

He might say, “I’m against pork barrel spending.”

But Levin can counter, “So am I, but if other states are going to take it, Michigan is now at the head of the line to get something, too.”

Mr. Levin will milk this chairmanship for all it is worth, and Mr. Switalski can’t do much about it — except send a nasty note to Rangel for messing up what little chance he had of winning in the first place.

Hangover Politics

by John Lindstrom
Gongwer News Service
January 22, 2010

Okay, everyone take a deep breath. We are just three weeks into 2010 and political actions and portents have already uncorked a heady brew that could leave the state and nation seriously hung over as they lurch into the elections that are still 10 months away.

Even in an age of the never-ending campaign (which is the normal state of electoral politics in the U.S. today) the pile up of developments in the first 21 days of the year is imposing. Just since the sun came up on January 17 there have been so many changes one can be forgiven for taking a steadying brandy or two. Or maybe a bottle. Or maybe a case.

Consider Tuesday, January 19. Yes, we’ll get to Massachusetts in a bit, but start at the Capitol, where Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop (R-Rochester) unveiled a proposed constitutional amendment to cut the pay of every public worker directly and to require them all to pay more for their health insurance. It is one of the broadest slaps at public workers since Calvin Coolidge blackjacked the Boston Police Strike in 1919 (see, told you we’d get to Massachusetts).

Reducing the size and scope of government in every conceivable form has always been a guiding principle for Mr. Bishop. He speaks of it frequently and fervently. Even so, the proposal he outlined is a very big, risky move that could easily work for — or against — Republicans.

With ongoing economic hard times there is a lot of public anger directed broadly at government and government workers, especially at teachers. It’s a hard anger to pin down because the invective directed at government is also often tied up in frustration that government can’t do, won’t do, is unable to do certain things. That government can’t, won’t, is unable to, is often tied up in the cutbacks state and local governments have had to make during the ongoing recession. Still, many in the general public, especially those struggling, feel government has to take even more of a hit. So Mr. Bishop’s proposal could tap into that mood to help win passage of his plan to not only cut government workers’ pay but make enormous changes in overall government management.

Yeah, but…this is also a state that has a lot of worker sympathy. So targeting workers directly could easily backlash on Republicans by giving Democrats and their supporters in labor a rallying point. Clearly, Mr. Bishop recognizes that risk, which is one reason why he wants a vote on this proposal with the August primary, when turnout would be lower and more likely to support the change. Putting the proposal on the November ballot would draw more Democrats in opposition and potentially hurt GOP candidates.

In the end, though, expect this more to be a subject in the campaign than an actual campaign issue for the voters to decide. There is a greater chance that a former Cosmo centerfold will get elected governor than that legislative Democrats would put up the votes to allow the issue on the ballot, and unless there is a spectacularly successful petition drive we can expect this will be a matter of argument and not action.

That same day, of course, a former Cosmo centerfold running as a Republican (the party that one just doesn’t think of when one thinks of nude photos) was elected U.S. senator from the state that invented blue laws. Much already has been written about the irony of Scott Brown, pledged to defeat a health care insurance bill, being elected to succeed Ted Kennedy, who made universal health insurance his great campaign, and about how Mr. Brown tapped public worry and anger and how the Bay State Democrats ran such an incompetent campaign. Beyond proving that there are more Republicans in Massachusetts than an award-winning oil painter in Weymouth, what does Mr. Brown’s election portend: a massive win for the GOP in November or a resurgent Democratic Party able to pick up the pieces and add to their successes of 2006 and 2008? Yes.

Wise Republicans know not to gloat too much over the victory, and wise Democrats know not to despair over the loss. Mr. Brown’s victory could indeed be the spark that sets off a new GOP bonfire, sweeping Michigan and the rest of the nation and snapping politics back to the right. But it could also be the spark that sets off GOP self-immolation and allows the Democrats to regroup, refocus and recapture the public mood.

Since governing politics, as opposed to electoral politics, tends to operate on a stampede-or-standoff mode, Republicans have to be careful not to simply stand in the way of decisions and then be blamed for the country continuing to founder. And Democrats must be able to show they can bring in everyone to hammer together some legislative wins. Who plays the hand the most deftly could tip the winner.

Then following that, Sen. Gretchen Whitmer (D-East Lansing), perhaps the prohibitive favorite, announced she was not running for attorney general but for re-election instead. Her supporters portrayed the decision as a victory for motherhood, since as a single mom being a senator will allow Ms. Whitmer more time with the kids. Okay, sure.

Since her domestic revelation came two weeks after Lt. Governor John Cherry Jr. pulled out of the gubernatorial race and the day after Mr. Brown won in Massachusetts, it just ain’t going to rank with trotting down the road to Damascus. Whatever, Ms. Whitmer is a young woman and an ambitious politician, and this probably is not the time for a Democrat to give up what would be a safe seat for an uncertain campaign. That she will seek a higher office at another time is a safe bet.

The big effect of Ms. Whitmer’s decision is to emphasize the uncertain status of the Democrats right now. For as she came forward with her announcements, top Democratic names — Denise Illitch and Bob Bowman — were to meet with labor and others to discuss their potential campaigns for governor. Mr. Bowman, the financial whiz kid who was the boy treasurer in the 1980s, also said he could self-fund a campaign. If he is the nominee, that would be a Godsend for the Democrats, who know they will have a viciously tough election.

Then comes Thursday and the extra shot added to the cocktail was the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling that corporations (and labor unions, don’t forget them) can spend directly on political ads. The old joke used to be that you had to feel sorry for car dealers during elections because they could never get an ad on TV with all the candidate ads. Now, the car dealers will be able to run an ad for both their four-wheel clunkers and their political jalopies. “Come on down to Honest Harold’s, where every car is $100 over invoice and carries a bumper sticker for Tom Bananaramapeel for Congress!”

The potential effect of this ruling on campaigns is ginormous, it’s spectacucolossal, it’s mammothmindblowing, it’s awesomeious, it’s whatever ridiculous new-age word-merge you want to invent. It is no understatement to say the ruling could have a major effect on federal and state campaigns.

And it is only third week of January. Drink up, we’ve got a wild ride ahead.

John Lindstrom is publisher of Gongwer News Service. For nearly 50 years in Michigan, Gongwer News Service has provided independent, comprehensive, accurate and timely coverage of issues in and around Michigan’s government and political systems. For subscription information, including a free trial, visit Gongwer online.

Bowman to Face GOP Brushback

by Tim Skubick
January 22, 2010

Bob Bowman backers will quickly dismiss it as a cheap shot. But if the former state treasurer under former Democratic Governor Jim Blanchard decides to run for his old boss’s job, his opponents will jump on it as proof positive that Bowman is “not one of us.” More on that in a moment.

Bowman was brought to Michigan via Wisconsin, New York and Washington D.C. by Gov. Blanchard and quickly won the title of “Whiz Kid.” At his tender age of twenty-something he was not exactly a veteran of legislative wars, but he was a quick study, could think on and off his feet and established himself as the unofficial junior governor.

Fast forward some 20 years later, and Bowman, who has a summer home in Harbor Springs, is actively and seriously considering running for governor, something he admits he has “always wanted to do.”

Now the opportunity is closer than ever, and as a close friend told Bowman recently, “If you want to run, now is the time.”

On the upside, Bowman has no ties to the Granholm administration other than chairing the MET board where he helps to administer the college tuition program he and Blanchard hatched 20 years ago.

His business resume is impeccable. “He’s made money for everyone he’s worked for,” glows Bob Kolt, who worked with Bowman and remains a kitchen cabinet advisor. Bowman ran ITT and now operates MLB.com, the Internet arm of Major League Baseball…a “dream job,” as he describes it.

He has a ton of money, charisma, a touch of arrogance and he connects well on the tube and in person. Should he get in, he might be the guy to beat…but then there are the downsides.

Bowman pushed through a recalcitrant legislature a hefty income tax increase, and even though it was ions ago, the state Republican Party will pummel him with that if he gets the nomination. Count on it.

Second is the carpetbagger problem, as in the aforementioned “He is not one of us.” During a closed-door meeting of Democratic big wigs recently, that issue was raised.

Bowman had his own Dick DeVos moment. Remember when DeVos ran for governor he appeared on a Tigers broadcast and could not name his favorite Tigers.

Bowman can relate.

In the course of a Bowman interview on statewide public TV in July 2008, he was asked if it was not presumptuous for a guy “who has not been here for a thousand years” to show up and want to run for governor?

Bowman did not flinch, saying: “I’ve been in the state the whole time.” But only during the summer at his manse in Harbor Springs. “I do stay in touch with the state,” he rose to his own defense,” since no one else would.

Well then, name the captain of the Red Wings, he was asked

“I don’t know that,” he told the truth quickly, adding, “I’m a baseball person.” Let’s just say he did not look like a Michigander.

For everyone in the TV audience who knew Nick Lidstrom was the captain, you gotta wonder what they were thinking.

And if Bowman gets into the race for governor, what will they think when the Republicans remind them of this Bowman miscue?

Tim Skubick is Michigan’s Senior Capitol correspondent and has anchored the weekly public TV series “Off the Record” since 1972. He also covers the Capitol and politics for WLNS-TV6 in Lansing.

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White House Influence
Years ago when some upstart wanted to run for governor, the first drill was to raise some money, build name ID with the voters and start a buzz with the media.

Apparently the rules have changed. Now the first assignment is to get your butt into the White House…even if it is just to visit the janitor.

You’ve seen the headlines recently: “Ilitch visits White House,” followed by Speaker Andy Dillon noting, “I’ve been to the White House, too.” Finishing third is Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero, who can only boast that he has “talked” to folks at the White House. (Call the operator there and you can claim the same thing.)

Frankly, while all this W.H. stuff sounds wonderful and adds a certain air of legitimacy to a person’s candidacy, state Democratic Party Chair Mark Brewer admits it doesn’t mean much at all.

Nailing down a meeting with some second-tier flunky is like cotton candy…tastes good but not much substance. However, give Ilitch credit. She was able to “leak” to the media that President Obama stuck his head in for a moment. Nobody knows if he said, “Hey, anybody in here see our dog Beau?”

Ordinary folks are wondering what the White House is doing sticking its nose into the Michigan governor’s contest in the first place. Doesn’t it have more important fish to fry? It was reported here last October that operatives there are worried about losing the state in this year’s race for governor.

So?

Well, when Mr. President runs again in 2012, he’d like a blue governor in the chair and not some anti-Obama conservative Republican who would not lift a finger to help Mr. Obama.

There’s also the matter of redistricting. A Democratic governor has a critical role to play in composing the legislative and congressional voting districts. He or she who controls the redistricting process can increase the chances that his or her party will control both bodies.

With that it mind, look for other headlines to surface as Dan Kildee, Bob Bowman, Bart Stupak, and gawd only knows how many others will try to get into a “meeting” in the White House.

Maybe they can just try crashing a reception…apparently that’s easier to pull off.

Poor Danny Boy
He really wanted to run for the Democratic nomination to be governor, but being from Genesee County and all, he had a buddy from that same neck of the woods who also wanted the job.

Being a good guy and a wise politician, Dan Kildee chucked his bid for governor out of deference to frontrunner John Cherry.
Kildee proceeded to resign at the end of the year as county treasurer, and he took a job of a lifetime as president of a think-tank funded by some prestigious foundations out of D.C.

Then Cherry unexpectedly dropped out of the race, leaving Kildee with a huge problem: how do you get out of a new job when you really want the job as governor?

Kildee is trying to figure that out right now as he goes to his board of directors hoping to find some way to explore a bid for governor while not tossing in the towel on the foundation post.

Even he concedes it poses a professional problem that has not yet been ironed out.

On the family front, things have gone a little smoother. With one kid in college and one in high school, he does not have toddlers at home to demand more of his time. His wife is more concerned with the impact all this will have on her hubby, which is why God gave us loving spouses.

And then, of course, the biggest question of all: “Do the stars align to win?”

Kildee doesn’t know if this will work, but he says, “I want to run. I have the fire in the belly to do it. But will I run?”

He’s next up on the public TV series, Off the Record at WKAR.org. Tune in to see if he will.

Dillon’s Dual Role Put to Test

by Tim Skubick
January 15, 2010

Mike speaks: “I know you want to increase revenue, Andy, but if I let you do that, it will help you win the Democratic nomination for governor, and my party wants no part of that. So, will I compromise with you on this package? Sorry old pal, but the answer is ‘No.’”

Sure it’s a fictitious conversation (not really) between Senate GOP Leader Mike Bishop and his amigo, Democratic House Speaker Andy Dillon, but it underscores a point made by Rep. Fred Miller — if Dillon is running for governor, he should not be running the Michigan House.

Dillonites protest, but Mr. Miller is making a point that will add a certain intrigue when the boys and girls in the House start working on what promises to be a blockbuster 2010 session.

The unanswered question: will there be an effort to oust Dillon from his speakership gig and, if they make a run at him, will House Republicans join in?

Told ya this was going to be fun.

Macomb County Democrat Miller, with strong ties to the labor movement, floated his idea the other day, noting that Dillon’s “ability to speak [on issues] will be compromised” and any position Dillon takes on behalf of the remaining Democrats will be “overly politicized.” Miller figures that would needlessly complicate government at a juncture where there are complications enough.

Dillon can argue that nobody else running for governor ever resigned his leadership post, including Big John Engler and his sidekick Dick Posthumus, who both ran for governor and continued to run the Senate at the same time. Never mind that Dickie missed 70 percent of the Senate votes while he was stumping for his own.

Some will argue that if Dillon is running as a statesman, which one of his kitchen cabinet advisors noted the other day he would do, the statesmanly thing to do would be to step down as speaker.

However, and here’s the tricky part, if Dillon relinquishes his leadership mantle, he gives up a powerful tool to enhance his run for governor. He’ll lose a lot of free media coverage; he becomes one of 109 House members groveling to convince the new speaker to move the old speaker’s agenda. And who knows what impact stepping down might have on his fundraising prowess.

However, it appears, subject to change, that the support for ousting Dillon is about a mile long and two or three legislators deep. A pretty good source within the Democratic caucus says to open up this can of worms now would “create a whirlwind of a mess,” as the focus would shift from doing the people’s business to battling it out for a new speaker.

But at least 10 or 11 other Democrats have “serious concerns” about the dual role and want some direct answers from Dillon before they decide to embrace an ouster effort.

Seeking the nomination, trying to pass critical legislation and riding herd on his less-than-unified caucus will be a real test of Dillon’s leadership skills. If he gets something done on reforms and taxes, he’ll look like a governor in waiting. But if this dual role blows up in his mug, how can he make the case that he can lead the state when he can’t lead his own caucus? Answer: he can’t.

Hence as the legislative show reopens, it is as Arty Johnson used to say with his German accent on TV’s Laugh-In: it will be “veeery interesting.”

Tim Skubick is Michigan’s Senior Capitol correspondent and has anchored the weekly public TV series “Off the Record” since 1972. He also covers the Capitol and politics for WLNS-TV6 in Lansing.

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Cherry Pickin’
Put yourself in his shoes. You have stood by your boss for eight long and hard years. You’ve been waiting that long and even longer to have your chance at being in charge, and then the bottom falls out. How would you feel?

You’d’ be in quite a funk.

Frankly, it was unclear what mood John Cherry would be in as he granted his first state Capitol interview in the wake of last week’s monster story that he was not running for governor.

Turns out, any trepidation was unwarranted.

Cherry acted as if nothing had happened. Oh sure, he and his wife, Pam, were disappointed. But sad?

Nope.

Any regrets or second guessing?

Naw.

“The handwriting was on the wall,” he suggests, so there was no sense in “prolonging” the obvious. With not enough moola to run, why bother?

But there were loose strings to tie up.

What about the White House shopping the story that he couldn’t win?

Didn’t happen, the former candidate observes.

So where did that story come from?

Cherry sort of fingers two former opponents, namely Speaker Andy Dillon and Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero. Cherry says they tried to sell the story that the White House was worried. (It was true, by the way.)

So did the duo try to sabotage his campaign with that stuff?

“They may have,” he retorts.

“Nobody on my staff did that,” Mr. Dillon explains.

But what about his supporters who did peddle the story when they could?

Dillon professes no knowledge of that and, when asked if it was wrong to do that to Cherry, Dillon noted, “everyone is entitled to their opinion.”

The sanguine Mr. Cherry has turned the page, still rejecting the notion that he had to toss Gov. Granholm under the bus in order to win.

“I’d have no credibility” if I had done that. “My job was not to diss the governor.”

Loyal to the bitter and losing end.

Ilitch Checking off Boxes
Ilitch for governor. She wants to do it; she is not sure she will.

That, in a nutshell, is where Denise Ilitch finds herself as she methodically goes about the business of checking off boxes as she ponders a possible bid to become the second female governor in state history.

Democrat Ilitch ran statewide and won a seat on the U of M Board of Regents, but that statewide campaign does not compare to the heavy lifting she would have to do to get elected governor.

Does she have the “skills and tools” to actually be governor?

How deep is the commitment from those who have “urged her to run” to help her run with money and elbow grease?

Does her family support a bid?

Reportedly, the family box has been checked off in the affirmative. She has three children, but they are all adults. In other words, she is not a mom with a two- and five-year-old demanding her attention at home.

The other boxes are unchecked, and until she figures that out she will continue her self-imposed policy of not talking to the media.

Boo-hiss.

The arms-length strategy is understandable, but boo-hiss anyway.

She meets Governor Granholm’s criteria of not having any connections to Lansing or the incumbent governor, other than the fact that they are both women and Democrats.

Ilitch could self-fund, but she has not decided how much of her personal wealth she is willing to bring to the table.

She has been successful in the business world, helping two companies to turn around, and she has good name ID — who has not heard of the Ilitch moniker?

Unclear is whether daddy and mom, supposed Republicans, will help her.

But more importantly, does she really want to do it?

That box has been checked off big time.

A source familiar with her thinking confides, “She wants to run for governor. She has the fire, red-hot lava, in the belly to do it. Whether she runs is another question.”

The answer to that will come by the end of March.

Unimaginable Tip Was Right

by Tim Skubick
January 8, 2010

The last time John Cherry was interviewed was just before the holidays. He had just released his campaign manager, and other reports had him realigning his fundraising team. In a smart move, the campaign made him available to appear on camera to debunk the notion that his campaign was in deep do-do.

Turns out the do was deeper than he revealed.

The affable lieutenant governor stated, “My campaign is stronger than ever,” and he dismissed the changes in his campaign as the normal ebb and flow of constructing a winning team for next year. He then revealed that he was finally going to get some time off over the holidays and would try to take some excess poundage off as well.

Fast forward to four days into the new year, and the phone rings at 9:30 p.m.

“Sorry to call you so late, but you might want to check this out,” the voice on the other end of the line suggested. “Cherry is going to drop out of the race for governor.”

Say what?

Cherry was the media-anointed front-runner in the Democratic primary and, sure, he had some problems, but dropping out? Nobody had ever imagined such a thing this early into the 2010 election year.

Logic suggested this was some far-fetched wishful thinking on behalf of those who wanted Cherry out of the contest…yet it had to be checked out.

The usually talkative and jovial mouthpiece for the Cherry campaign was neither. Chris DeWitt was not answering his cell or home phone. Others connected to Cherry dove for the high grass, too.

Long story short, it was eventually nailed down that Cherry was poised to do just what the tipster had suggested: drop out.

Money was a problem. The balance sheet was not a pretty sight, one source conceded. Those who should have opened their checkbooks to the heir-apparent in the Granholm administration were keeping them tightly shut.

And akin to that, Cherry, the supposed candidate of labor, could not nail down the UAW endorsement when he needed it most — which sent the wrong signal to other would-be backers who sat on their hands and cans.

Image was a problem. For weeks the buzz was Cherry can’t win.

It would go like this: he is probably one of the best qualified to be governor with his wealth of time in the legislative trenches, including eight years as second in command, but… He is well liked by both political parties, both personally and professionally, as he knows how to cut a legislative deal and can be trusted to keep his word, but… He could be governor without the need for on-the-job training, but…

For months that unelectability story line had been shopped behind the scenes by those supporting House Speaker Andy Dillon for the Democratic nomination. Then out of nowhere came the mayor of Lansing, who said it out loud for everyone to hear.

“Everywhere I go, Democrats tell me Cherry is in trouble,” reported Virg Bernero, who quickly formed his own exploratory committee to consider a bid for the nomination.

The Cherry-Granholm linkage-baggage problem was already being exploited by the Republican candidates for governor and by virtually everyone else with an “R” after his/her name.

Long-time Democratic Party honcho Joel Ferguson nailed it when he advised that the longer the “lie” of “Cherry can’t win” was spoken, the more likely it was to become the truth.

Turns out he was right. With Cherry out of the race, indeed, he can’t win.

Tim Skubick is Michigan’s Senior Capitol correspondent and has anchored the weekly public TV series “Off the Record” since 1972. He also covers the Capitol and politics for WLNS-TV6 in Lansing.

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Joe D. for Governor?
Now that the candidate with the most political experience is out of the contest, some forces within the Michigan Democratic party are looking for a candidate with none. In effect, this faction is looking for its own version of GOP candidate Rick Snyder, the non-politician/business guy out of Ann Arbor.

The 180-degree flip from tons of experience to zero could produce a want ad that reads like this:

Wanted: Someone with no hands-on experience in Lansing and no visible or invisible ties to Gov. Jennifer Granholm. (Very important.) Resume with successful business accomplishments is essential, along with the ability to self-fund or bring own money to the table. Must have good name ID and a positive image that indicates you are a Lansing outsider but possess the intelligence to learn the ropes at the Capitol once elected.

Potential candidates House Speaker Andy Dillon and Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero could not answer the want ad above for obvious reasons. Even though he has been in the Michigan House only four years, Dillon is an insider. Even though Bernero is not there anymore, it would not take long for the GOP to tee him up as a product of government, with his county, state and now local experience as mayor.

So if not them, who?

Try this on for size: Joe Dumars. Yep, the former NBA basketball sensation and current president of the Detroit Pistons.

Stack him up against the want ad and you have a potential blockbuster of a candidate who would not only set this town on its ear but also produce enough buzz to give the Ds a better-than-even chance to hang onto the governor’s chair.

While some Democrats are sad that Lt. Gov. John Cherry has been relegated to the sidelines, pulling a Joe Dumar-type candidate out of the hat could quickly turn those tears into smiles and maybe even enough votes to send Rick Snyder and the rest of the GOP field to the showers.

Feelers are out there to see if Joe D. wants to try his shooting hands in another non-contact sport, namely politics.

Joe D. Part 2
It is such a simple phrase. But in politics, “no comment” is not always as simple as it looks. In fact, it can get quite complex, as you try to ascertain the true motivation for trotting out that old standby when somebody wants nothing to do with the media.

Case in point is that when the Joe D. story above reached the Piston’s president, waiting to see his team lose another one down in Texas, it produced an unexpected response.

Frankly, the popular wisdom was that once Dumars got wind of all this political stuff he would promptly laugh it off, declare it out of bounds, end of story.

But there was no rebuke, no laughter, no nothin’ except that curious “no comment.”

While it is risky business to read too much into anything, wouldn’t you agree that if there were nothing to this he would have said so. The fact that he did not will be interpreted this way: he indeed is thinking about it.

Maybe it is the ego stroke that motivates him to think about it, but whatever the rationale, he did not say no, which some will say means he could eventually give a yes.

Many believe that Dumars does not have any political passion. Well, turns out that when white supremacist David Duke was making anti-civil-rights noises down south years ago, Mr. Dumars went there to protest.

To be sure, it is a quantum leap from civil rights demonstrator to governor of Michigan. But in politics, anything can happen…just ask John Cherry.

Who’s Calling the Shots?
Here we go again. The Senate GOP leader has problems with the nose of the state GOP chair.

Three years ago when then-state Republican chair Saul Anuzis stuck his big nose into the delicate budget debate that included a hefty tax hike, GOP leader Mike Bishop complained there was no role for the party chair in this legislative matter.

The Oakland County Republican, in effect, lectured Big Saul to stick to politics while Bishop would do the heavy legislative lifting.

Fast forward to the new year, with a new state GOP chair and Bishop forced to confront the same old problem all over again.

Turns out that the new chairman, Ron Weiser, has attached his name to a grandiose scheme, hatched by a new business group, on how to reform state government in five easy steps.

Democrats are using that Weiser endorsement to urge Bishop to hop on board. But Bishop is not on board, and he’s bashful about going to the station to even look at the train.

Weiser notes that he has not endorsed the whole package put forth by the Business Leaders for Michigan, which is a morphed reincarnation of the old Detroit Renaissance group. But he says some of the concepts are worth doing.

Through his mouthpiece, Bishop basically tells Weiser what he told Anuzis: stay out of my business. Warm letter to follow.

All of this is slowly reaching critical mass, as the governor has hooked up with the BLFM folks and is eager to forge a “Grand Bargain” in which everyone gives a little to get a little, as she puts it.

Her “little” to get is new revenue, which Bishop is loath to support. And the specter of having the GOP chair on Granholm’s side, even though Weiser has not embraced new money, is a PR problem for Mr. Bishop that forces him to explain why he and Weiser are not on the same page…again.

Politics after Cherry

by Gongwer News Service
January 8, 2010

For all his angels on the head of a pin, Thomas Aquinas is not easy to simplify, but he did speak of knowing by faith and knowing by reason.

On Monday, January 4, Michigan Democrats knew both by reason and faith that Lt. Governor John Cherry Jr. would be their gubernatorial candidate. By noon Tuesday, January 5, they knew by reason he would not be their candidate, and they knew only by faith that someone would carry the party’s mantle into November.

Mr. Cherry’s decision to withdraw was truly stunning, something made late and kept tightly within a trusted circle. When rumors first started circulating late Monday that he might step aside, most Democrats were baffled as to why he would suddenly withdraw.

The official reason is money. Mr. Cherry raised only $1 million and spent virtually all of it, according to unofficial reports (until state campaign finance reports are filed we will not know for sure). For a moment think of what it means to say that he raised “only” $1 million. $1 million still gets a lot in this world: nice cars, a pretty nice house, one helluva vacation anywhere, the ability to send you and maybe a half-dozen buddies climbing up Everest, a modest but acceptable life for probably the rest of anyone’s life. What it won’t buy you is a fighter jet, a battleship or, apparently, a decent shot at getting elected governor in Michigan.

Many Democrats question whether money is truly the reason. Times are tough, but if Mr. Cherry were a little more aggressive about asking for money he might have turned the funding situation around. Their theory is that a constant set of bad polls showing him too tied to Governor Jennifer Granholm and too far behind almost any of the putative Republican candidates led him to the conclusion he could not win.

The problem with that theory is it is far too early to make that conclusion. With the campaign barely beginning in earnest, it is dangerous to make a decision based on poll numbers. Any Democrat would run badly now. Republicans are rightfully confident of their chances, perhaps too confident for comfort. But things can change quickly, and if the economy shows any signs of life (and there is some reasonable hope it will), if some major new developments come into the state, if Republicans make a major faux pas, if any of a number of factors happen, a Democrat’s chances could jump markedly.

Perhaps both thoughts — money and polls — are true, and the combination was enough to send Mr. Cherry out pheasant hunting this week instead of going on the stump. Perhaps he was having too tough a time raising money so he could begin to be competitive against Republicans.

Why he decided to drop out at this point is academic in contrast to the situation both parties now face. Some points to consider:

– Some Democrats are furious that President Barack Obama did not help the situation by appointing Ms. Granholm to a cabinet post, top ambassadorship or major judicial post. A year ago former Virginia Governor Tim Kaine came to Michigan to discuss the upcoming election, and sources said top Democrats urged her appointment. If Mr. Cherry were running as an incumbent, if he had time to make his own proposals and assert himself in the office, the entire dynamics of the race, even facing the bad economy, might be different, they said. But Ms. Granholm never got the call, and some Democrats feel Mr. Obama deserves the blame.

– Almost no top Democratic grandee wants either House Speaker Andy Dillon or Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero to be the candidate. If they could pick anyone to run it would be U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Lansing), but so far she expresses no interest. They fear that both Mr. Dillon and Mr. Bernero are coated with too many negatives to make a successful run. But who does that leave? Various sources say the emphasis seems to be on finding a candidate with no heavy Lansing connections, someone who cannot now be tied to the problems over which government founders.

– Whether Mr. Cherry’s departure makes the Republican effort easier or harder in November is not worth worrying about at this point. What it does do is mean the GOP candidates will have to focus on themselves now. With the most tangible symbol of an ongoing Granholm administration now out of the race, the candidates will have to, for at least the primary season, spend more time hammering each other than they will the governor. The winner of the primary battle will have plenty of time to slam the current chief executive during the general election.

– Finally, with Mr. Cherry gone it is noteworthy that two senior political leaders, one from each party, have taken themselves out of contention for the residence on Lansing’s Oxford Street. Last year Oakland County Executive L. Brooks Patterson decided not to run. What would an election between Mr. Cherry and Mr. Patterson have been like, a race between two seasoned, indisputably wise (yes, Brooks is wise, not just a wiseacre) candidates whose primary focus has always been results and not ideology? We cannot know by reason; we can only reckon by faith what it might have been, and we can hope that whomever each party tosses onto the stage this autumn approaches the knowledge, experience and ability of these two leaders in asking the voters for their trust.

For nearly 50 years in Michigan, Gongwer News Service has provided independent, comprehensive, accurate and timely coverage of issues in and around Michigan’s government and political systems. For subscription information, including a free trial, visit Gongwer online.

Put Up or Shut Up

by Tim Skubick
January 1, 2010

’Tis the season to forget about politics….except, of course, in this town, where it’s politics 24-7-365. Hence, even though Lt. Gov. John Cherry is home for the holidays — he’s adamant about taking some time and a few pounds off — his political family is busy nonetheless.

For openers, the Cherry gang dodged the bullet recently when they got rid of the campaign manager. Doing it in the dead of winter, 11 months before an election, and getting rid of somebody nobody knew in the first place was a two-day story that did not reach beyond the political junkies in this town. Normal folks missed it.

Also likely to fall into the same category was the decision by the Energizer Bunny, a.k.a. Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero, to form an exploratory committee as a prelude to a possible bid for governor in the new year.

Bernero has methodically moved from “very unlikely” to run to “seriously considering” a run to a committee that will determine once and for all if he can raise the dough to actually run against Cherry and others for the Democratic nomination.

Detroit and organized labor are key to winning that nomination, and Bernero believes he is making progress on both fronts.

He’s spent at least two full days in Motown meeting with the usual folks, from NAACP leaders to Baptist ministers to local power brokers and that ilk. Bernero comes away encouraged that they feel and like his “passion and energy,” and he continues to hear the “Cherry can’t win” theme, which only encourages the mayor even more.

Then there is the labor front. Popular wisdom has labor solidly in Cherry’s camp. State ALF-CIO President Mark Gaffney the other day described Bernero in a TV interview as a “bright young man with a great future” but “not as governor right now.” The labor leader advised, “keep up the good work as mayor.” Translated: keep your big nose out of this race, pal.

If that was the message sent, Bernero did not receive it. He senses that much of labor shares his “Cherry can’t win” notion and, with a little work, he can make some inroads.

That chuckling you hear is coming from the popular-wisdom pundits in this town. They’re not writing Bernero off, but very few are predicting he can pull this off.

The formation of an exploratory committee will now give Bernero backers a chance to put up or shut up, and how much they cough up will determine if Bernero actually runs.

At this early stage, money is the story. Those who have it are viable. Those who don’t, well, maybe next time.

Thus, Bernero will count the change as it flows in. He won’t and can’t raise a quick million, but if in 30 days or less he can demonstrate he can hustle upwards of $300,000 or so, the naysayers may put their naying on hold.

If he raises $50,000 or less, the mayor can go back to being mayor real quick — which is what a majority of Lansing voters thought they were getting when they re-elected him mayor last November.

Tim Skubick is Michigan’s Senior Capitol correspondent and has anchored the weekly public TV series “Off the Record” since 1972. He also covers the Capitol and politics for WLNS-TV6 in Lansing.

Tim Skubick Extra Extra… (A weekly bonus only for Dome readers)

Saul Nice to Cherry
What a shocker. Saul Anuzis is one of the last guys in this town you would expect to say anything even remotely complimentary about John Cherry. After all, Big Saul is the former state GOP chair and is about as partisan as it gets.

Yet, when asked about the Cherry for Governor effort, Saul had nice things to say about Democrat Cherry.

“Anybody who underestimates John Cherry is making a mistake,” Anuzis said, warming to the subject.

Calling him “clever, a smart and very personable guy,” Anuzis pays Cherry the ultimate compliment by using his name and John Engler’s in the same sentence. “Cherry is one of the shrewdest politicians I know…It wouldn’t be a stretch to say that he is the Democrat’s John Engler.”

Recall that when John Engler first ran for governor, everyone said with conviction there was no way he could unseat incumbent Democratic Gov. Jim Blanchard. No how, no way.

Well, of course, the impossible happened and now Anuzis is concerned, if you read between the compliments, that to underestimate Cherry as the Ds did with Engler could end up in four more years of Democratic reign.

Unfortunately for Cherry, one positive review from Anuzis will not erase the “can’t win” mantra that is fully engrained in this town’s psyche. The challenge in the new year will be for Cherryites to find a way to prove he can win.

Maybe Saul could do a TV spot for his long time acquaintance J.C.?

Right, and Kwame will pay back all the money he owes, too.

Illogical Legislative Logic
Sometimes legislative logic leaves much to be desired. It can be lousy reasoning masquerading as logic.

Two such examples stick out like the proverbial sore thumb as we put a ribbon on the 2009 legislative year: the Hollywood film tax credit and the Pure Michigan tourism campaign.

Everybody has seen the Pure Michigan TV spots narrated by Tim Allen that actually bring a tear to your eye if you are a true Michiganian. The spots touch a spot in your heart and have brought in tons of out-of-state tourists to spend money here.

Needless to say, the state needs those tourist dollars. So when it came time for lawmakers to ratify another $40 million in spending to continue the very successful campaign, they…well…blew it!

Here is the logic they either missed, were too stupid to get, just ignored…or all three. For every one dollar the state spent on the ads, three dollars came into the state. Repeat, three for one.

There was a proposal to raise new revenue to pay for the campaign by taxing car rentals. That seemed logical, but wait, Republicans are against raising new revenue, even if it produces more revenue.

As a result, the commercials will not air nationwide during the critical winter tourist season.

Next was the Hollywood credit. Again, the Rs first stood up to kill it, but when the pushback came, they opted to scale it back.

Some argued that even though the credit was working and bringing 80-some movie projects to the state, why would we want to continue that when it might lose a little money in the process?

The tax credit was having a tremendous psychological impact on a state that was in a deep-dark funk. The audience stood up and cheered when a Clint Eastwood movie final credit appeared: Made in Detroit, Michigan.

Even if the state lost a few bucks, it had a halo effect that in the long run will benefit the state.

Maybe some Republicans have it in for all those liberal Democrats who run the movie industry?

It’s that kind of logic that leaves you shaking your head.