Columns



Tim Skubick

Perles’ Misdirection Play

August 12, 2011

Bashing the news media is a popular indoor sport. Everyone has a gripe, and now you have another one. Read on.

The following rant is all about media gullibility driven by the desire to follow a storyline that looks tantalizing but may actually be wrong. Nonetheless, much of the media report those stories anyway without double-checking the facts.

In recent days the credibility of the political media got a well-deserved going over, compliments of one George Perles. Yes, that George Perles of MSU football fame.

During the last election cycle, when everyone was speculating on who would run for governor, one name cropped up over and over again: his.

Google “Perles for Governor” and then pull up a chair to read media breathlessly “report”: how Perles was serious about a run for governor; how one local paper reported he “will run” but provided no quote to support the conclusion; how another indicated he would begin his campaign after New Year’s, and how even the USA Today folks, grabbing the story from the Ann Arbor News, of all places, wrote about his impending candidacy.

Then, when you heard it on ESPN, the pinnacle of political prognostication, you just knew it had to be true.

Turns out it was a stretch. So says the man himself.

“You guys would write anything,” he laughs, as he finally comes clean on the extent of his bid for governor.

I did “nothing. Didn’t do a thing,” he confesses; yet the speculation continued as he masterfully fed the beast.

The Perles for Governor gambit had all the elements that the gullible media could not ignore. First, the idea of a jock running the state was tantalizing to say the least, prompted by the coach who promised to create a “football atmosphere” at the state Capitol.

A football what?

Next, the media were drawn to Mr. Perles, who was a likeable chap with a great sense of humor. He was accessible, gave good quotes and, when he refused to take himself out of the hunt, the stories kept rollin’ along.

So New Years came and went and, of course, Mr. Perles did not launch a campaign…but his “run” remained in the news.

“You were pulling the media’s legs?” he was asked the other day at his charity golf outing for the Special Olympics.

Keeping the hoax alive for a few more seconds, he began, “I was seriously thinking about it,” and then he noted that the doctors had ordered back surgery, which is true, but that’s not the reason he did not run.

Then he was asked, “You were playing with the media?”

Still staying on message he begins, “Nooooo. I would not do that to the media.” And then the truth finally dribbles out: “Darn right I would, and I’d get even one of these days.”

Get even for what? All those bash George stories that dotted the media when he was at MSU on the sidelines?

Now in a full grin, the coach closes the deal. “You took the hook, line and sinker…Why did you bite so easy?”

Darn good question and a not so pretty example of why sometimes the media won’t let the facts get in the way of a good story.

Tim Skubick is Michigan’s Senior Capitol correspondent and has anchored the weekly public TV series Off the Record since 1972. He also covers the Capitol and politics for WLNS-TV6 in Lansing.

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Greece Fire
It is the state treasurer’s job to keep his eye keenly on the economic ball and, at the first sign of trouble, blow the whistle.

If you look closely you can see Andy Dillon puckering up.

While the domestic political blame game continues over whether the Tea Party cabal caused this week’s meltdown on Wall Street, the experts assert it was an international deficit/red ink problem that precipitated the tumble. Mr. Dillon is also looking overseas for the “real” threat to Michigan’s comeback.

The former House-speaker-turned-treasurer indicates the bogeyman is not on Wall Street or in the Congress. “The biggest risk I see is you have trouble with Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy and Ireland. If trouble happens there, I could see a contagious effect that could affect our economy in North America.”

Translated: You thought Monday was bad, try worldwide bankruptcies on for size.

Years ago, before all this economic globalization mumbo jumbo, folks on this side of the pond could give two hoots about what happened on the other side. Now, the harsh reality is that if any one of those countries goes in the dumper, the resulting shock waves could reach these shores. And your 401-K goes down another notch.

Some Democrats are crying about impending federal budget cuts that may also impact Michigan’s fragile recovery; but even though he is a Democrat, Mr. Dillon has not joined the chorus.

In fact, he’s singing a different tune. In the near term the state is harvesting more money than anticipated, and even if Congress slices some services here, Mr. Dillon figures the state can survive. But he warns that three to five years out, if the feds continue to whack away at its deficit, “we need to be prepared for it.”

So despite the harsh reality this week, apparently all is not lost…if you believe Mr. D.

You do, don’t you?

Columns

Tim Skubick

Civil Service Commission Sets Off New Controversy

February 4, 2011

If the new governor wants to take a chunk out of the state’s jobless rate, he can do it by hiring a bunch of state investigators to ride herd on the new benefit that state workers just received.

Compliments of the State Civil Service Commission, some 15,000 civil servants are eligible to receive health care benefits for their “unrelated housemates” and their children.

Nope. That’s not a misprint.

If you are a state government worker and have someone living with you and you are not married, that person gets state health insurance. And if that someone has kids living there, too, they get coverage as well.

The conservatives are going nuts over this.

The governor’s point person on the civil service front tried to persuade the commission to place this on hold. Jan Winters contends the state is in lousy shape financially and this just adds to the mess.

The state labor unions, on the other hand, explain that the benefits were negotiated fair and square at the bargaining table and the state signed off. But Winters notes that was when Gov. Jennifer Granholm was in charge.

But rather than place the debate on hold, the commission gave the green light. Commissioner Charles Blockett rejected the argument that now is not the time to do this.

“Now was not the time to extend voting rights to women. Now was not the time to integrate our schools,” he reasoned as he tried to convince the “now is not the time” crowd that they were wrong. He also says at U of M and MSU, where the benefits are granted, it has not busted budgets.

Rep. Chuck Moss (R-Oakland County) runs the House budget committee and counters that the decision is “reckless and fiscally irresponsible.”

Interestingly, the Snyder administration has said nothing about the moral aspect of this debate. But the ultra conservatives want to argue morals or, in this case, the immorality of allowing live-in partners to be treated as if they were married, including same-sex partners.

Other opponents point out that the only test for receiving the benefits is that they must live together for a year.

Last time anyone checked, there are no state investigators prepared to go into the homes of unrelated relatives of state workers to gauge the extent of their relationship. Do these folks present a note from their mothers proving they have lived together for one year?

And, the critics contend, even if that could be documented, who will certify that any children are really the children of the unrelated housemate?

In other words, the conservatives argue this system is an invitation for fraud and there’s no one to uncover it.

The Granholm administration argued that through the insurance system, when claims are filed, such a probe could be done. Not everyone was buying that.

So chalk one up for the labor unions. But this may be winning the battle and losing the war. There was already growing sentiment in the hinterlands that state workers are on the gravy train — and here’s an example of more gravy.

State worker benefits are going to be cut under the upcoming Snyder budget, but what sympathy there might have been for those workers is pretty much out the window with this recent decision.

Tim Skubick is Michigan’s Senior Capitol correspondent and has anchored the weekly public TV series Off the Record since 1972. He also covers the Capitol and politics for WLNS-TV6 in Lansing.

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Ivory Tower Vs. Rs
This should be fun to watch.

In this corner are all the university presidents. And in that corner, conservative Republicans who want university worker bees to kick in more money for their bennies.

Problem is, the ivory tower crowd wants no part of this and, according to state law, they can tell the lawmakers to take a hike. And lawmakers won’t.

Republican Sen. Mark Jansen from West Michigan is leading the charge to force a 25 percent co-pay on university hires for their health care coverage.

He acknowledges the recalcitrance on the other side. “They don’t like to be told what to do,” he correctly observes.

Dr. Mike Boulus, who gets paid to lobby for the university leaders, tells the senator that the schools have already given at the office and, he contends, those employees are already $3,000 below their counterparts in the rest of state government.

So lawmakers should keep their hands off? “I think that would be wise,” he asserts.

Hence the stage is set for this issue to go before the voters. Jansen and company need a constitutional amendment on the ballot for voters to approve, and then lawmakers can lower the boom on the state’s 15 universities.

But to do that, Jansen needs a two-thirds vote in the House and Senate, and you can take this to the bank: the university presidents will go to the lawmakers who have a school in their district and apply the heat.

Instead of playing the lottery, bet on the schools winning this one.

Price to Pay
State Rep. Tim Melton is the John McCain of Michigan politics. Melton is a true maverick and is paying the price.

The Pontiac Democrat until recently was the chair of the House Education Committee. Traditionally, the chair was simpatico to the teacher labor movement and, in some cases, the chair was chair because of that. The Michigan Education Association and the Michigan Federation of Teachers are fond of saying, “We take care of our own.”

Melton did not fit the mold, not by a long shot, and they took care of him in another manner.

As a close confidant of former Democratic Speaker Rep. Andy Dillon, Melton signed up for the Dillon state-run health insurance pool concept that produced a nasty labor vs. Dillon dust-up. When the dust settled, labor won and Dillon did not.

Melton took some hits, too, and when they counted votes last November, the GOP took control of the House. Melton survived, but he was no longer chair of education. In fact, he woke up one morning and discovered he was no longer on the committee.

Que pasa?

He privately believes the MEA did everything it could to bounce him from the panel. “There is a price to pay,” he reflects. “I was a reformer [and] some of the traditional friends of education did not like that.”

But he is not giving up. Melton wants to revamp the teacher tenure law, continue to change the teacher health care system, and is still a big fan of Race to the Top/Obama-driven reforms.

But he’s off the committee that deals with that. Undaunted, he pledges to push on. “I’ll be front and center,” and this time he may have the new GOP governor in his corner.

Wonder what those “traditional friends of education” think about that?

Columns
John Lindstrom
Gongwer News Service

Dillon Appointment Creates Ripples

November 12, 2010

Is it really necessary to remind one of the old saw “be careful what you wish for?” At least, is it really necessary to do so in the context of Governor-elect Rick Snyder’s decision this week to name House Speaker Andy Dillon as Michigan’s next treasurer?

The public did say it wanted bipartisanship, did it not? That was one reason they voted so overwhelmingly for Mr. Snyder. He called for bipartisanship, he said we were all joined together by our love of Michigan, said repeatedly during the campaign and in the days following the election that we had to look beyond party labels.

Granted, the public message may have been a bit confused in the election. They voted for Mr. Snyder who pledged bipartisanship, but they also voted for conservative Republicans who did not make the same pledge. No matter. The public expects the governor, the state’s chief executive, to set the tone for the state, and he said the public needs to embrace bipartisanship, and so the public has said it wants bipartisanship.

And then darn it all, Mr. Snyder actually goes off and commits bipartisanship by naming Mr. Dillon as treasurer.

Oh my, oh my. When the announcement was confirmed Monday, one could feel the collective shock move through Lansing. One could almost hear jaws snapping into a tight clench as Republicans publicly praised the appointment while at the same time muttering to themselves, “Wait a minute, bipartisanship means we include Democrats?”

Of the many elements and factors this appointment raises, let us consider four.

First, the importance attached to the actual post by naming the treasurer first. Recall that when the constitution was adopted in the early ’60s, making the treasurer an appointed instead of elected position, the post was more of a figurehead position. Under former Governor William Milliken the financial post that mattered was that of Management and Budget director. Under then-director Jerry Miller, in his ubiquitous powder blue leisure suit, the DMB job handled budget and taxes all in one package.

That changed with former Governor James Blanchard and his financial wunderkind and enfant terrible, Bob Bowman. Every treasurer since has been a major policy player in every administration, responsible for developing overall tax policy and helping set the state’s financial forecasts as well as being the lobbyist-in-chief with Wall Street.

In fact, looking at the appointment of Mr. Dillon, it is valuable to remember that Mr. Snyder will be the fourth consecutive governor elected when the state was undergoing serious economic problems (ironically, although the state was in a definite recession in 2002 when Governor Jennifer Granholm was elected, it was probably in stronger shape than the economies Mr. Blanchard and former Governor John Engler got and Mr. Snyder is getting).

Those economic problems meant and mean the new governor has to demonstrate the importance of minding the financial store. In the macro sense, our financial and fiscal problems are the result of the poor economy, and long-term the governor will have to focus on boosting the state’s economy.

Mr. Snyder has certainly made “re-inventing” the state and its economy a priority. But that will be an ongoing, long-term priority. Immediately comes the issue of dealing with Michigan’s fiscal and financial problems, especially as he tries to figure out how to shoehorn a major tax cut (eliminating the Michigan Business Tax) into a situation where the state is now facing anywhere from a $1.4 billion deficit to a $1.6 billion deficit and that tax cut could add another revenue loss of $1.5 billion to the mix. So it is both politically prudent as well as administratively necessary to name the state’s treasurer before, say, letting slip who he wants to succeed Greg Main as the Michigan Economic Development Corporation president.

Ah, but it was Mr. Dillon whom he named as treasurer, and that raises the second point about the appointment: the man himself.

No one disputes Mr. Dillon has the business chops to handle the job. His business was business and particularly corporate finance before he ventured into politics. He understands the intricacies of financial grammar, how to parse bonds, notes, and the overall role of taxes in management.

It’s just, well, it’s just, it’s Andy Dillon, for cryin’ out loud. His tenure as House speaker raised lots of eyebrows and caused many heads to shake. The antipathy he and Ms. Granholm, fellow Democrats both, endured is well documented, plus he was clearly hated by legislative Republicans. Ms. Granholm’s administration viewed him as untrustworthy. Democrats loudly questioned his partisan leanings (forgetting that Democrats have encompassed everyone from Ted Kennedy to George Wallace). Republicans hate him for all those reasons and because, well, because they do.

What worries people immediately outside government operations is Mr. Dillon’s governing style, which seems on the casual side of laconic. Money management is not a quiet, contemplative occupation.

Money managers feel they are entitled to fancy cars, single-malts and Kobe steaks because they are killing themselves with stress. Managing Michigan’s money — its billions in bonds, in pension funds, in managing cash flow from dozens of different revenue sources and meeting the various payment schedules, plus keeping an eye on the financial status of the state’s thousands of cities, townships and school districts — is not a low intensity occupation. There were a number of people talked about as treasurer, so one has to presume Mr. Snyder saw something particular in Mr. Dillon that led him to make the appointment.

Ironically, one can make the argument that one reason why Mr. Snyder is preparing to raise his right hand on the steps of the Capitol on January 1 is because of Mr. Dillon. Until late in the primary campaign, Mr. Dillon held a lead in Democratic opinion polls over Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero. That lead among Democrats vanished and Mr. Snyder suddenly showed a lead in the Republican primary polls at roughly the same time.

There is no question that a number of moderate and conservative Democrats who would have backed Mr. Dillon went over and voted for Mr. Snyder when it was clear Mr. Bernero would likely win. How many Democrats crossed over is uncertain, but at least Mr. Dillon can say he helped Mr. Snyder win.

The third point to consider in the appointment is that it does in fact uphold a pledge of bipartisanship. The few people named by Mr. Snyder prior to that appointment, those running his transition effort, were all former executives under Mr. Engler.

While Republicans mostly gave public kudos to Mr. Dillon’s appointment, privately they fussed. With all the good Republicans out there for this critical appointment, why a Democrat? Moreover, why this Democrat, who helped lead the 2007 income tax increase effort?

Given that most of the members of the new supermajority in the Republican-controlled Senate are current and former House members who worked under Mr. Dillon’s speakership, could Mr. Dillon face an unpleasant confirmation hearing in the Senate?

So return to bipartisanship, and if we are to have bipartisanship, what does that really mean? Well, it means being willing to work with those you once tried to destroy in partisan battle.

In parliamentary countries “national governments” are often called during times of emergency, war or even economic crisis, where leaders of all parties serve in the cabinet. The concept being that the country’s situation is such that politicians must rise above politics. Is naming Mr. Dillon a sign Mr. Snyder will run a “Michigan administration” without regard to party?

Possibly. Close aides to the governor-elect have said other Democrats will be named along with Republicans to top posts in the administration. Some of the names will be surprises, they said, as if Mr. Dillon wasn’t a surprise enough.

The other appointment announced on Monday, which has not gotten much attention, however, also shows Mr. Snyder is not ignoring the need to work with and possibly corral Republicans as well. Former Lt. Governor Dick Posthumus will come back to work with the administration and legislators.

Mr. Posthumus comes after enduring an exhausting emotional roller coaster, surviving cancer, losing his wife, Pam, just a few months ago to cancer and then watching daughter Lisa Posthumus Lyons win election to the House. What he brings to the administration are solid Republican credentials and a sharp knowledge of how to work the legislative system, neither of which Mr. Snyder has. His being named at the same time as Mr. Dillon was one way of reassuring the GOP that they could still rely on their new leader.

Bringing us to the fourth point to consider: Mr. Dillon’s and Mr. Posthumus’ appointments show that Mr. Snyder is at this point still not thinking or acting like a typical politician. He is acting like a business executive who has developed a strategic corporate plan and is putting it into place.

The same aides to Mr. Snyder have said he is firm in his opinions and once he has set his mind to something he is difficult to move. That is both a blessing and curse for any top executive, in business or politics. While it’s good to have a confident sense of direction and action, it is also critical to know when to backtrack and change course if needed. In business that sometimes comes only after enormous sums of money are spent on failed ideas (think about that when you next crack open a bottle of New Coke). In politics, the art comes in recognizing when to backtrack and change course before embarking on a disastrous policy.

So far, Mr. Snyder has not had to backtrack or change direction, but there will come a time when he will. Naming both Mr. Dillon and Mr. Posthumus may be a sign he understands a day of reckoning is nigh and, perhaps, these two with legislative experience will be able to warn him when it is time to change course.

After all, the last thing the governor-elect will want is to one day regret what he wished for.

John Lindstrom is publisher of Gongwer News Service. For nearly 50 years in Michigan, Gongwer News Service has provided independent, comprehensive, accurate and timely coverage of issues in and around Michigan’s government and political systems. For subscription information, including a free trial, visit Gongwer online.

Poll Tries to Polish Granholm Legacy

July 9, 2010

They are quietly passing out the polish deep inside the Granholm administration as the effort continues to put a little gloss on the governor’s economic track record — which is not breaking any records, to say the least.

Even she is forced to concede that the job she is doing now to diversify the economy will not bear fruit on her watch. To which you can hear a collective “darn it” inside the Granholm inner circle.

So the legacy writers are already sharpening their pens to put a point on it when she walks out the door. The headlines will not be flattering, and she begrudgingly knows it. Which is why a document showed up the other day from pro-Granholm sources.

It’s a previously undisclosed survey conducted by the Mellman Group, which did all the polling for candidate Granholm and, as you might expect, has a different take on the Granholm economic blame-game so popular around these parts.

Mr. Mellman writes, “Michigan voters are certainly unhappy with the present state of the economy…[but they] certainly do not blame the governor for the state’s economic problems.”

Wow. There’s a statement that goes counter to all the rhetoric reaching a fevered pitched on the campaign trail. You won’t find one GOP candidate for governor patting Ms. Granholm on the head for a job well done, and even the two Democrats are loath to hitch their wagons to Granholm for fear it could cost them the election.

Yet Mr. Mellman goes on.

He sees a hint of optimism, as other pollsters have uncovered. Fifty-two percent believe the state (read the governor) has begun the process of turning things around, while 39 percent see no real signs of change, and more gloom and doom.

He’s still not done as the survey cuts to the guts of the Granholm economic dilemma.

Asked who they would blame for this sorry state of economic affairs, turns out Madam Governor finishes dead last behind lousy decisions by CEOs, former President George W. Bush, slanted trade agreements and high taxes.

It should be noted, however, that those tax policies were her policies. So she does not get complete exoneration for messing up the works on that front, but Mellman does not say that.

Finally, Mellman asserts: the prime cause of “Michigan’s economic straits” is the long-term decline of the auto industry (64 percent), while only one out of five blames her economic policies for the downfall.

Mellman even has some free advice for the seven candidates auditioning for her job: don’t go there.

“Trying to run a negative campaign that focuses on attacking Jennifer Granholm is a risky enterprise that is likely to ring hollow and run into voter resentment,” he offers.

Bottom line. The pollster gives her a clean bill of health.

The bad news is that to erase the eight years of lousy economic news, the governor would have to spend millions of dollars in TV ads to explain all this. And the rule in politics is that if you have to explain, you are in trouble.

But maybe, being the competitive person that she is, she could go back to the porch with her coffee cup and rocker, as she did in her first-election commercial, and tell the citizens: “I tried. I really did. It was not my fault, but in five years you really will be blown away.”

Tim Skubick is Michigan’s Senior Capitol correspondent and has anchored the weekly public TV series “Off the Record” since 1972. He also covers the Capitol and politics for WLNS-TV6 in Lansing.

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Subsidizing a Job Search
Running for governor is a full-time job, but what if you already have a full-time job on top of that?

Well, it creates some interesting challenges and can often provide an issue for your opponents to exploit.

Say hello to Congressman Pete Hoekstra, whose real job is to represent the good folks from West Michigan in the U.S. House of Representatives. They pay him a pretty good salary to be there to vote yeah or nay.

The other day when the House was voting on extending unemployment benefits, Mr. Hoekstra did not vote either way. He could not vote. He was at a fundraiser trying to cobble together enough money to secure a new job…governor of the State of Michigan.

Is he vulnerable on missing that critical vote? His opponents will answer that for him. The answer, of course, is yes.

Hoekstra is not the only one confronting this “where should I be?” dilemma, as House Speaker Andy Dillon and his Democratic opponent, Virg Bernero, both have full time jobs. Dillon runs the Michigan House here in Lansing and is very sensitive to being there when his campaign is tugging on him to attend fundraisers, knock on doors and give speeches to whomever is willing to listen.

Because the House and Senate have taken the next two weeks off…sort of a super extended July 4th break, he can now do that.

Bernero, the mayor of Lansing, does not publish his schedule, but it’s a pretty good bet that as the underdog in this primary, he has not done a lot of sitting in his office on the ninth floor of City Hall. He has a trusted aide who is running the joint and so far there’s been no tragedy in Lansing that has demanded the mayor’s attention. And unless all those oil globs down in the Gulf of Mexico suddenly find their way into the Grand River, you won’t find His Honor around these parts very often.

Years ago when Dick Posthumous ran for governor, he was also the Senate majority leader and made a choice about which assignment was more important. The West Michigan Republican missed 70 percent of the Senate votes. Seventy percent!

Posthumous’s buddy, Gov. John Engler, came to the candidate’s defense, glibly contending that this was just the way it was. That takes care of that.

All that leads to this perplexing question: if the taxpayers are paying you to do one job, and you take time off to pursue another, should they be subsidizing that job hunt or should you pay them back for the time you did not punch in?

You know what the pols would say, don’t you?

Subsidizing a Job Search-Take 2
Our last installment was about the trials and tribulations of having a dual career of being in one elective office while running for another. It focused on governor candidates Pete Hoekstra, Virg Bernero and Andy Dillon, all of whom have day jobs as they seek to replace Gov. Jennifer Granholm.

Left out of the first missive were the following: the two Mikes, Cox and Bouchard, state Senator Tom George and businessman Rick Snyder.

Of the seven in the field, Mr. Snyder, since he is a non-career politician, has the luxury of making his new job the moderator at town-hall meetings. Seems like in any little burg where there is a microphone and more than 20 gathered in his name, the Ann Arbor business guy is ready to discuss his Ten-Point Plan for reinventing Michigan.

Since part of his team is former John McCain operatives, Snyder has adopted this town-hall retail approach to the campaign. The only difference is that the former presidential candidate drew thousands to his shindigs, while Snyder is happy to see a hundred or so in front of him.

Tom George is the senator from Kalamazoo and, far as we can tell, he has not missed many, if any, Senate sessions. He’s done his job of voting and conducting hearings and has apparently left the campaigning to his off hours, although lawmakers lecture us that they are on 24/7, so they are never really off.

Mr. Cox, the state’s top law enforcement official, and Mr. Bouchard, the top cop in Oakland County, are often seen on the campaign stump during normal business hours.

To be sure, Attorney General Cox has lots of underlings tending the shop while he rounds up money and support. They are used to it, since Cox ran for reelection four years ago and was A.G. at the same time. And likewise for Sheriff Bouchard, who is no stranger to running for office while keeping an eye on the crime scene in his own backyard. Recall he did this before when he ran for the U.S. Senate, and nobody complained.

Or if they did, maybe they ended up in the slammer?

At any rate, so far in this primary, nobody has raised much of a stink about public officials campaigning while on the public clock and the public dime. Maybe you could care less, which is your constitutional right — and lots of folk are exercising it.

Peas in a Primary Pod

May 21, 2010

At first blush, Andy Dillon and Rick Snyder have zilch in common.

Blush again.

They both emerged from the private business sector into politics. They are more cerebral than they are political animals, by a long shot. If given a chance, they would blow up all the TV cameras, microphones and notepads used by reporters.

They are both running a brilliant general election campaign; problem is, they should be running a primary strategy instead.

Both of these guys do have appeal to independent voters and have benefited from attacks from special interest groups, which makes them look more independent. For example, every time “Official Lansing” takes a swipe at Snyder, it plays right into his image as the non-politician running from the outside hoping to get inside.

The Ann Arbor business guy is taking some hits for not participating in the final two Republican Party-sponsored televised debates. Everybody that plays the game in this town knows that candidates have to debate.

Tell that to Team Snyder.

“If you look at all these comments, they are coming from the career political people,” Snyder observes, which just gives him another chance to tell the voters, “I’m a non-politician. I’m doing things a different way.”

Likewise with Mr. Dillon. One of his calling cards is that when it’s time to stand up to the special interest groups (read organized labor), he has the guts to do it even against the advice of his political brain trust.

Independent voters admire candidates who think for themselves and don’t go along to get along, so both gentlemen are onto something. But it’s the wrong something for a primary election, where those voters don’t decide the outcome.

In a general election the impact of unions, chambers of commerce and a wealth of other special interests is diluted because more unattached citizens vote to mute their power. But in a primary, special interests wield more influence.

Snyder, for example, refuses to fill out questionnaires from a host of special interest groups, even though some of them would give him a second look. He’s not even getting the first look, and while he may be cool with that, the special interests aren’t, and some think he is arrogant for not playing the game.

Snyder either doesn’t get it or he doesn’t care, but if he wins, these are the very groups he will have to influence to move his agenda. To stiff them now is either shortsighted or just plain ignorant.

Dillon faces the same challenge as he struggles with his perceived organized labor opposition. “I’m not the devil,” he likes to say, but it doesn’t matter what he says. The bulk of the labor guys are behind Virg Bernero, and that will count for something and trumps Dillon’s independent cache.

Being from the business sector, it should come as no shock that neither of these candidates is a whiz-bang with the media. Raised in a cloistered boardroom where the glare of TV lights and snoopy reporters are verboten, they were not trained to be 10-second soundbite wonders.

Snyder is more content hawking his 10-Point plan, which takes more than 10 seconds to digest. Dillon is more into thinking in his head than thinking on his feet to combat some snotty question from an equally snotty reporter.

Two peas in a pod? Maybe not, but they’re closer to that than you think.

Tim Skubick is Michigan’s Senior Capitol correspondent and has anchored the weekly public TV series “Off the Record” since 1972. He also covers the Capitol and politics for WLNS-TV6 in Lansing.

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Bleed Him Dry
GOP candidate for governor Mike Cox is on a mission. He wants to bleed all the money out of the Pete Hoekstra campaign before the August 3rd primary.

Now, you might ask, how can one candidate do that to another?

Simple. You run attack ads, which puts your opponent in a box with two options: sit on your money and don’t purchase any ads to counteract the attacks, or spend your money now to counter them. By exercising the latter choice, you run the risk of running out of moola the closer you get to the election, when more voters are paying attention.

Cox knows this and so do the Hoekstra people. So far, Hoekstra has made a modest effort to mute the Cox ads, which suggest the Michigan congressman is a big spender of your tax dollars in Washington.

Last week came the first ad, and the Hoekstra camp scrambled to assemble a tepid response that did not get a ton of exposure compared to the bigger ad purchase made by the Cox folks.

This week a new attack ad and, so far, no response from the Hoekstra camp. It’s unclear if their first commercial continues to air around the state.

The popular wisdom in town has Hoekstra struggling to convert his grassroots support in West Michigan into checks. So he is not overflowing with money, while the Cox campaign coffers are looking better.

The commercials are an act of “desperation” decries Hoekstra mouthpiece John Truscott. J.T. contends Cox is losing support in the polls and has to act now to salvage his candidacy by trying to slice into Hoekstra’s lead.

Team Hoekstra expects to take a hit as a result of these ads.

Over in the Cox shop, campaign manager Stu Sandler argues the ads “are a show of strength,” not desperation.

So in all likelihood, those attacks will continue and the Hoekstra folks will have to decide to shut up or cough up. Either way, it’s a roll of the dice for the congressman, and the smiles you see over there are from Mr. Cox and company as they monitor the blood flow out of the Hoekstra campaign.

New Guy Gets It Right
You know the drill: politician screws up; has to convene his inner circle; they commence a protracted and secret discussion to decide what to do about it; and, eventually — sometimes days, weeks or even months later — the admission of guilt comes.

Think Bill Clinton and Monica what’s-her-name.

Say hello to David Palmer, who just proved you can do this turnaround in a matter of hours. Smart guy this Mr. Palmer.

Palmer is on a mission to win the House seat soon to be vacated by Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith. As such, he found himself handing his card to a Capitol correspondent as the two got on the elevator just off the House floor.

It was not out of the ordinary. A picture of the bearded Mr. Palmer with an engaging smile on his mug and over there on the left, in bold print his name, David Palmer. Underneath it, in smaller print, “State Representative 54th District.”

The reporter thought for a second. The guy’s been in town for 18 months and this is the first time Rep. Palmer has appeared on the radar screen?

Something didn’t compute.

Finally, this exchange as the smarty-pants reporter finally figured it out. “This state representative thing is interesting,” in that you are not the state representative.

Palmer sort of chuckled as the elevator reached its appointed stop and off he went into the night.

About three hours later an unsolicited email arrived. “I’ve asked my graphic designer to add the word ‘for’ on my card so that it would now read ‘David Palmer for state representative.’”

Funny thing what one tiny little word can do.

Palmer “got it” even though he confesses a “fairly large and diverse group of supporters” looked at the thing and raised no objections. But upon quick reflection he concludes, “It could be misleading.

So into the recycling bin go 950 of the offending 1,000 calling cards.

Making a mistake, correcting the mistake, and not taking a lifetime to do it. Mr. Clinton and other more experienced pols, are you listening?

Spread the Sunshine

by Tim Skubick

April 16, 2010

In a sport where timing is everything, the Bernero for Governor team has racked up one impressive win after another.

He was first to defend the domestic auto industry when it was under siege in the nation’s capital. He was first to argue that Lt. Governor John Cherry could not be elected governor, long before Cherry came to the same conclusion. When Toyota got its accelerator stuck, Virg Bernero was at the head of the line blasting the Japanese automaker for misleading the American public. And when Bernero’s governor, Jennifer Granholm, took him to task for doing that, he took a shot at her and the GOP attorney general for not standing up to the company.

In other words, if there was a story to exploit, Bernero was always at the front of the line to gobble up all the free media he could consume. At least that was until now.

Given a chance to score additional points recently, Bernero was late coming to the party and had to be goaded there by one of his opponents.

Ken Ross is the state insurance and banking commissioner. An avid supporter of Virg for Governor, Ross decided to stage a fundraiser in his own home at $1,000 a head. It was a welcomed event, as Bernero had been shopping around town for somebody to help him raise some badly needed revenue for his badly underfunded campaign.

The news media found out about the gig and asked Ross if there was anything unethical about a state regulator hosting an event that just might attract the very folks he regulates.

“I’m doing this as a private citizen,” Ross began his argument for the defense.

But what if lobbyists whom he regulates appeared on his doorstep (and they most certainly would), what appearance would that have to an untrusting citizenry? Ross saw nothing wrong with that, since he was not “pressuring” anyone to cough up the cool grand.

True, Ross was a private citizen and there was nothing illegal about him doing it for Bernero. Yet, while it may not have flunked the smell test, there was still an odor surrounding the whole affair. If Ross didn’t smell it, the Bernero folks should have sniffed it out — but instead of being first, it was Andy Dillon’s guys who leaped to the forefront to make a little political hay at Bernero’s expense.

This was a textbook example of how a candidate’s moral compass can be set askew when the almighty dollar is in play.

It’s not as if Bernero didn’t have a chance to take the high ground.

Days after the original story broke and Ross took his stand that there was nothing unethical about any of this, Bernero was given a chance to check in. He checked out instead.

“He doesn’t work for me,” was Bernero’s lame excuse after announcing that he was pleased to have Ross hosting the event. Hey, at $1,000 a pop what pol would not be pleased?

Bernero was then asked if there was anything wrong with the event.

“I haven’t thought about it,” he said while moving to the high grass.

If you were governor, would you allow this?

“I haven’t thought about it,” he repeated while moving away from the TV camera.

The governor was also flummoxed when she was asked for a comment on the story.

“What are you talking about?” she said, staring into the camera.

Given a chance later that same day to expand on her “answer,” the Granholm administration saw nothing amiss. End of story.

Well, not quite.

The Andy Dillon for Governor squad, not exactly a quick response team in the past, woke up to dish Bernero a little of his own medicine.

It issued a press release demanding that Bernero release the names of everyone who attended, noting that a “cloud” would be hanging over the head of Commissioner Ross if he was to make any major decisions affecting the banks or insurance companies after the party.

At that point the Berneroites finally got it right, as they promised to release the names — which they did — and, indeed, some industry lobbyists were on the list.

Bernero, seeking to even the score, urged Dillon to release all the names of lobbyists who had bankrolled him and the House Democratic caucus. Dillon’s guys said in due time.

Of course, all of this could have been avoided had Ross blocked insurance and bank folks from buying tickets in the first place. He did not.

Or if the governor had done it for him. She did not.

Or if Bernero had been savvy enough to take the offense on this ethics issue when he had the chance. He did not.

So let’s hear it for media sunshine. Sometimes it burns a little, but so be it when protecting the public interest is at risk.

Tim Skubick is Michigan’s Senior Capitol correspondent and has anchored the weekly public TV series “Off the Record” since 1972. He also covers the Capitol and politics for WLNS-TV6 in Lansing.

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Ds Stiff Their Governor
Your journalistic instincts kick in when the folks you cover suddenly change their behavior. Such was the case this week with Senate Democrats.

Since they are in the minority and don’t get much attention, they are normally very willing to do on-camera interviews. Hey, it beats being ignored.

So when all of the Democrats, minus one, failed to support their governor’s retirement package for 39,000 teachers and 9,000 state government employees, that was news. Stiffing their own governor was a good little story, which is why most of those Democrats dove for the high grass and stayed there.

Take the Senate Democratic leader. Mike Prusi is a likeable chap, but when he was asked to appear on camera, he uncharacteristically ducked out the back door in a hasty retreat to his office.

Went up to Sen. Tupac Hunter. At least he had the courtesy to say no to this reporter’s face before he followed Prusi out the door.

Look it, the Democrats were caught in a crossfire. The governor wanted the bill and the Michigan Education Association did not. The governor is leaving town in six months, and the MEA will be around forever. You can figure out why the Ds didn’t do the governor’s bidding.

Shouldn’t you give one up for the Gipper, Sen. Irma Clark-Coleman was asked after she did agree to chat.

“Normally I would,” she suggested.

So this is not a normal vote?

“It is not a normal vote,” she confirmed.

She was worried about luring away 39,000 seasoned teachers from the classroom at a time when, in her town of Detroit, they are trying to reform the school system.

“These young teachers [who would replace the old ones] come in and they are wonderful and full of energy and all. But you gotta know how to teach,” Clark correctly asserts.

Senate Democrats will get another chance to vote on this stuff because House Democrats, who now have the package, are likely to rewrite it more to the MEA’s liking.

For now, Gov. Gipper had to settle for a bill that passed with overwhelming GOP Senate support — which is also news, since she and they seldom agree on anything.

Johnny Comes Marching Home
Chill out, Michigan. John Engler may be buying a luxurious home in Michigan, but it does not mean he’s itching to get his fingers back in Michigan politics.

By now you’ve probably heard that speculation that surfaced at the beginning of the year turned out to be spot-on, even though close friends of the former governor and Mrs. denied the rumors.

Turns out, the Englers were looking and did purchase a new manse by a small lake just outside of Lansing. It listed for a cool $650,000 and boasts 4,200 square feet, including four bedrooms (remember, there are three teenagers in the family) and four bathrooms. If Mr. Engler is lucky, as the only guy in the joint he may actually get to use one…if he is extra nice.

Anyway, in this very political town the “he’s coming back to run for office” meter has been off the charts. Why else would he buy a house, the soothsayers keep asking?

Maybe he just wanted to have one in his home state.

Aw. That’s no fun. He must be itching to take on Debbie Stabenow for the U.S. Senate in 2012.

What, and take a pay cut?

What’s left of the Engler cabal in town is downplaying all the wild speculation.

He won’t run, confides long-time Engler groupie and noted barrister Richard McLellan. Former Engler media mouthpiece John Truscott goes “Ditto.”

What would you expect them to say — something like, “Oh sure. John wants to serve in the Senate and is coming home to run for that.” When were the Engler folks that forthcoming on anything like that?

Answer: never.

The one person who has not chimed in yet is Michelle Engler, and the popular wisdom has it that she has had it with elective politics…for her hubby.

But what about a Michelle vs. Debbie mud wrestling match in two years?

After all, she is the one who picked out the new digs.

Getting to Know You

by Tim Skubick

April 9, 2010

In the midst of the most convoluted governor’s race in modern times, one question keeps popping up: why would anybody want to be governor now?

Aside from the lousy economy and a toxic political environment in town, there’s another good reason to avoid this job at all cost.

The new governor will have a completely new Senate to work with and 39 new members of the Michigan House out of a population of 110. In other words, the theme song of the new administration should be “Getting to know you. Getting to know all about you.”

And here’s a freebie heads-up to all the would-be governators: don’t make the same miscue the current governor made at the outset of her tenure in town.

Roll the tape back to the early months of the new Granholm administration. The rock star governor was riding high in the polls as she began an uncharted journey as the first female chief executive in state history. To say that expectations were running high would be an understatement.

Someone who had been in town for a thousand years approached the new governor and suggested she invite legislators to the executive “cottage” on Mackinac Island as part of the “getting to know you process.”

Just by way of background, the island manse is envied by every other governor in the country, and every sitting lawmaker would be thrilled to death to get an invite.

In a word, the suggestion was a brilliant strategy, as it would give the bubbly governor a chance to rub elbows with the folks she would need later on if she wanted to get anything passed in the House and Senate.

She could have the Rs up on one weekend and the Ds on another or mix and match them. It didn’t matter.

Remember, just like the new governor coming in next year (with the exception of Andy Dillon, Alma Wheeler Smith and Tom George), Gov. Jennifer Granholm was the new kid on the block and a blank slate.

Well, as the story goes, the island schmooze-fest got as far as one of the key gatekeepers in the new administration and was immediately quashed. This person reportedly saw the island home as a retreat for the First Family, not to be disrupted with crass political glad-handing.

It was a kind notion, but totally off the mark.

Politics is the art of the possible, and not having a first-name relationship with the key players from the opening bell is a recipe for making the art impossible.

The island gig never happened at that time.

Now comes House Speaker Andy Dillon suggesting that the governor was not very good at forging legislative relationships. He might be right, but to be absolutely fair about this, Mr. Dillon and his one-time sidekick, Mike Bishop over in the Senate, were not exactly the best dancing partners either.

It takes three to tango, and the GOP and Senate leaders were stepping on her toes all over the place, and she has the bunions to prove it…figuratively of course.

So new governor out there, whoever you are, don’t ride into town on a white horse thinking you are going to reinvent Michigan all by your lonesome.

You might better reserve a horse and carriage and bring all your new legislative friends to your new island home and do what the soon to be ex-governor should have done in the first place.

Tim Skubick is Michigan’s Senior Capitol correspondent and has anchored the weekly public TV series “Off the Record” since 1972. He also covers the Capitol and politics for WLNS-TV6 in Lansing.

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There He Goes Again
You gotta hand it to Geoffrey Fieger. He knows how to play the news media like a Stradivarius, and we get suckered in every time.

“Fieger May Run for Governor,” the headlines screamed recently in a bad case of déjà vu all over again.

Fieger can go months without saying squat, and then he shows up out of nowhere doing a TV show over in Grand Rapids and dangles this dandy in front of buddy Rick Albin…

“I’ve…got the documents. I’m examining the documents to run,” he said, breathlessly manipulating the media on the same story he’s been manipulating them with since the invention of newsprint.

Take this to the bank sports fans: Geoffy-poo is not running for governor, just like he didn’t run for mayor of Detroit, despite speculation that he might, and just like he might run for Pope (only he is not Catholic).

Review what he said: “I’ve…got the documents.”

Wow. Stop the presses. He’s got the documents. So?

Your dog could have the documents and could even be studying them (before he eats them).

So why do we get roped into this each and every time?

Because, and Mr. Fieger knows this, he is good copy.

Fieger is to political correspondents what crack is to a druggy…you just can’t put it down once you start using it, and the news media have been using Fieger for years, and vice versa.

Don’t be misled, the Capitol press corps would love to have him in the governor’s office. He’d be a hoot to cover and amount to the full employment bill for political writers if he were running his mouth and the state at the same time.

But, alas, boys and girls, Fieger can exam all he wants. And when the filing deadline of May 11th rolls around, the papers will read: “Fieger Won’t Run for Governor.”

But stick this in your bonnet. If Attorney General Mike Cox gets the GOP nomination for governor, watch Fieger turn into a one-man wrecking crew to defeat his “bud” Mr. Cox.

That one you can print and believe.

Running Mates

by Tim Skubick
March 26, 2010

You are aware of the silly little game journalists play to see who can be first to write about a story. Be assured that this is the first time you will read anything about the GOP and Democratic nominees for governor thinking about running mates.

How absurd to even think about it. Heck, the primary for picking the candidates is a whopping 130 days away and the field is just beginning to fire up. Speculation on who will be second on the ticket is just plain silly.

Think again.

Betya each candidate in a private moment or two has allowed him or herself to drift toward that, if for no other reason than to have some fun contemplating the “what ifs” of this person or that.

A natural place to begin the search is with your opponents.

To be sure, often times primaries are such bruising events that the opponents inflict injuries on each other. And when all is said and done, the hard feelings between the contenders are palpable.

Nonetheless, after a grueling toe to toe and mano a womano battle years ago, victor Howard Wolpe picked opponent Debbie Stabenow for the Democratic ticket. This was no match made in heaven. To wit, they arrived at the announcement news conference in separate cars. But for political reasons he picked her, and the two proceeded to lose to John Engler.

So what about the 2010 race?

If Mike Cox wins the GOP nomination, the betting money is he may ask one of his opponents to join him. Whether the opponent would is another question. It is also unlikely Cox would end up as the running mate for somebody else if he loses the nomination. Some conclude he would bring too much political baggage to the ticket. The conclusion may be unfair, but it’s out there.

Pete Hoekstra is another case. Adding Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard would make some geographical sense. Hoekstra is from “that” side of the state (West Michigan) and the Mikester is from over here (East Side).

Many in this town believe the only reason Sen. Tom George of Kalamazoo remains in the hunt is to prove he could be a running mate for someone. That would make sense, too.

Rick Snyder, whether he wants to admit it or not, would want some hands-on Lansing experience if he got the GOP nod. If the self-described non-Lansing politician ever hopes to find the bathroom, he’ll need someone to point him in the right direction.

Even Snyder has admitted he would consider hiring career politicians, although his campaign literature suggests they are toxic and to be avoided at all cost.

On the Democratic side, everyone agrees that Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith has enough time in grade to be Andy Dillon’s or Virg Bernero’s second in command.

A Dillon-Bernero combo or vice versa just doesn’t look very good.

Dillon is tall; Bernero is…well, let’s just say he’s not so tall. It would be a weird picture on the tube and might draw more attention to them for all the wrong reasons.

But let’s not forget one other combination — picking a running mate from the other party.

Could you envision a Hoekstra-Dillon ticket?

The two of them actually debated last week, and they were quite in sync.

Stop laughing. It could happen. And remember, you heard it here…first.

Tim Skubick is Michigan’s Senior Capitol correspondent and has anchored the weekly public TV series “Off the Record” since 1972. He also covers the Capitol and politics for WLNS-TV6 in Lansing.

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Gutless In Lansing
Profiles in courage this ain’t. An example of pretty sharp politics, it is.

Faced with making a $255 cut per pupil, lawmakers who profess that education is their top priority are in a box.

The governor wants them to expand the sales tax to services to raise the funds to avert the cut. But in an election year, voting for anything that even smells like a tax hike is verboten. Yet those same solons run the risk of offending mom and dad back home if their little Johnny or Janey ends up in a classroom with 50 other pupils.

What’s a poor legislator to do? It’s a lose-lose, which lawmakers loathe-loathe.

Here’s what they will do: punt.

Quietly unfolding out of view is a scheme to place the sales tax question on the August ballot. And here’s the beauty of the move: if voters approve the sales tax change, the schools are saved. If the voters reject the sales tax and $255 ends up being sliced from every school kid, it’s the voters who are to blame and not the lawmakers.

“We didn’t cut education, you did,” will be the defensive rally cry of lawmakers seeking to save their own political necks this election cycle.

Pretty nifty, eh?

“I think lawmakers should have the courage to do this,” the governor advised the weary legislators the other day. Easy for her to say, she is not running for anything this time out.

But alas, she adds, if they can’t muster that courage, she would not stand in the way of allowing citizens to take the lawmakers off the hook.

So far there is not a consensus to take this escape route, but knowing these guys and gals, it’s only a matter of time before they do the math and pawn this puppy off on you.

Arf. Arf.

Explosive About-Face
For decades, when it comes to 4th of July time Michigan residents become instant lawbreakers, thanks to lawmakers who have banned really dangerous fireworks.

That means half the state travels across the border into Ohio to pick up the contraband, and everyone crosses the state line hoping the state cops don’t nab them en route to the family picnic.

But hope is on the way.

The continuing budget crunch is forcing lawmakers to get inventive, and here’s the latest scheme. Legalize those fireworks, force the seller to pay a fee, and the money would go — where else? — into a fund to cover the cost of local fire services.

It makes sense. Since the explosives are undoubtedly going to cause some grass fires or injuries, the local fire shops will need the extra money to respond to all the firework mayhem.

Chalk it up as another example of how far lawmakers will go to avoid a revenue increase. If dangerous fireworks were too risky in the past, why all of a sudden is it safe to light these things now?

Why? Because lawmakers don’t want to tax you, and if you lose a digit fumbling around with those M-80s and the like, that’s your fault, not theirs.

On a grander level, the concept of a user fee, which is what the fireworks fee would be, applies to road funds as well. But the backers of more revenue for the roads are still stuck in neutral, unable to muster enough votes to raise the road bucks the state needs.

Here again, it makes logical sense to let those who use the roads pay for the roads. Yet as noted in this space countless times before, when has logic ever been the touchstone of legislative decisions?

The road-building lobby is running out of patience as it remains clueless on how to break the logjam in this election year. The best hope now is for a vote after the November election, which means another construction season will come and go with the potholes getting bigger and the cracks in the freeway bridges getting wider. And, because Michigan can’t match the federal highway dollars it’s supposed to receive, that money will go to Ohio and elsewhere.

At least you won’t have to drive on poor Michigan roads to Ohio to get your fireworks…maybe.

Foot in Mouth Extraction
It’s trite but true: timing is everything in politics. And Richard Bernstein is like the White Rabbit in Alice in Wonderland — he is late…oh yeah, really late.

In case you missed it, last week the Democratic candidate for attorney general volunteered that there were many in the party, supposedly including himself, who had had enough of the United Auto Workers tossing its political weight around in the state Democratic Party.

“People are tired of being pushed around and told what to do,” the passionate Mr. Bernstein asserted.

It was a great quote and almost unheard of in the annals of state Democratic politics for someone to take on the UAW with such a direct verbal broadside, knowing that the union can influence who gets the nomination.

The comments sat out there for a week, untouched by other media outlets. Bernstein’s opponent, David Leyton, whom the UAW likes, finally weighed in by calling Mr. B.’s remarks “highly disrespectful” to the union leaders.

This prompted, out of fairness, an overture to the Bernstein campaign to assess what pushback, if any, it had suffered since the original comments.

An email dated March 17, seven days after the interview, arrived at 2:18 p.m.

“Richard is a union member,” it began. “He respects the UAW and the labor movement and will be a great partner to them if elected,” it went on.

There was no hint of an apology.

But something happened between 2:18 and 4:20, when a second email arrived with this: “I made a poor choice in words and I apologize if my remarks were off-putting.”

Yes, it was an acknowledgment that he was sorry for what he said on March 11.

But why did it take a week for him to figure out he made a mistake?

Had the apology come within hours or even a day of the original statements, it would have had some credibility. But it took the Bernstein gang one week to figure out it needed to remove the candidate’s foot from his mouth.

Hence, the apology looks more like an 11th hour political damage control move rather than a sincere and from the heart “I’m sorry.”

Maybe it took him a week to figure out he spoke out of turn.

Or maybe he still believes what he said; he just doesn’t want to stand by his opinion for fear it might cost him the party A.G. nomination?

What a Difference a Year Makes

by Tom Shields
March 19, 2010

Just a year ago, the pundits had the Republican Party on the verge of extinction. Time Magazine said, “Republicans have the desperate aura of an endangered species,” and speculated that they could sink to the level of a third party in a two-party system.

John Cherry looked like a prohibitive favorite for the Dems’ pick for governor, and the Senate Democrats were measuring Mike Bishop’s office for drapes.

What a difference a year makes.

Republican governors in Obama states like Virginia and New Jersey. A Republican senator from Massachusetts and here in Michigan, a landslide state Senate victory by Mike Nofs in a seat won by Obama and considered a safe bet for the Democrats in 2010.

As we enter the engagement period of the 2010 election cycle, the polls and pundits are all predicting a GOP year for Michigan and the nation. Our polls have seen a swing of almost 20 percentage points toward Republicans when asking Michigan voters which party does a better job of running state government (from -8 percent to +9 percent).

Many people who voted for change in 2008 did not get the change they were looking for in 2009. The voters are clearly supporting candidates who promise less government. The unorganized Tea Party movement is held together by its common opposition to increased government spending and higher taxes — issues that align them with the Republicans in 2010.

And though we are four months out from the primary and seven months out from the general election, each party’s candidate field for governor of Michigan seems to be almost set. Now seems to be as good a time as ever to handicap the race for the Governor’s Office.

Democrat Primary
The shift in the political winds has swept the best candidates out of the Democrat race for governor. After John Cherry, Bob Bowman and Denise Ilitch decided that 2010 wasn’t going to be their year, the Democrat Party is left with three candidates who, collectively, probably do not have 50 percent name I.D. or enough money in the bank to cover Rick Snyder’s monthly consultant bills. Our polls show “Don’t Know” clearly leading the field with 64 percent, followed by Dillon (18 percent), Bernero (9 percent) and Smith (7 percent).

One year ago, Andy Dillon was the one candidate for governor who Republicans did not want to face. They may get their wish as Dillon finds himself in political primary purgatory. He’s too liberal for the conservatives and too conservative for the Democrat Party hierarchy. His endorsement from the building trades will help soothe some fears from some Dems, but his pro-life beliefs and his legislation to control the health care benefits of public employees has already cost him support from the AFL-CIO and puts him on a crash course with pro-choice Democrats and the MEA.

Of course, the candidate benefiting from all this is Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero. Bernero is the true accidental candidate whose stock has risen as all the other candidates dropped out of the race. The ultimate political opportunist, Bernero seems to be benefiting from the mere fact that he’s not Andy Dillon. Though he’s down in the early polls, if he can cobble together support from the liberals, pro-choice women, the unions and urban voters, he could be tough to beat in the August primary.

It appears that the only way Alma Wheeler Smith is going to get some respect for her candidacy is by recruiting Aretha Franklin as one of her co-chairs. With little money and a small base of support, she is destined to play third fiddle in the Democrat primary.

Republican Primary
In the Republican primary, Rick Snyder, the tough rich nerd, is shaking up the field by dumping $3 million in the campaign — outspending the other three candidates by a 10 to 1 margin.

Our most recent poll shows this turning into a three-way race with Hoekstra (21 percent), Cox (21 percent) and Snyder (20 percent) in a dead heat, and Mike Bouchard stuck at 10 percent.

The shortage of funds in the state’s matching fund pool could have a significant impact in the Republican primary as the other three candidates struggle to match Snyder’s bankroll. If Snyder continues at this pace, he could spend $8 to $10 million in the primary — more than double what his three opponents will spend combined.

One of the key developments to watch will be the endorsement of Right-to-Life. Snyder doesn’t meet RTL endorsement criteria, and if they weigh into the primary, one of the other three candidates could be propelled to front-runner status.

While Snyder’s media blitz has him moving up in the polls, it appears that west Michigan voters aren’t ready to embrace the nerd and are sticking with Congressman Pete Hoekstra. The candidate with the smallest war chest has the strongest base of local support. Hoekstra needs to raise the funds to defend his base and expand it to win the primary. But for now, Hoekstra sits on his west Michigan perch, until someone knocks him off.

One candidate trying to do just that is Attorney General Mike Cox. While Cox and Hoekstra have been neck and neck in the polls for the past year, Snyder’s media buy seems to have cut into Cox’s support the most. But Cox has stockpiled some cash, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him the next one out of the gate to run some advertising to keep pace. With money, political savvy, statewide name I.D. and Asian Carp, expect Cox to be in the thick of things in August.

Three million dollars and a cute ad campaign have bought Ann Arbor businessman Rick Snyder about 50-percent name ID and some early support. But it remains to be seen if the “tough nerd” campaign can hold the momentum for the long haul. Historically, wealthy business candidates like Dick Chrysler and Jim Nicholson have jumped out to early leads by spending early money — only to fade in the end. Snyder must put a little more meat on those nerdy bones to withstand the attacks that are sure to come in June and July.

The most puzzling campaign for the Republican nomination is the campaign team of Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard and Secretary of State Terri Land. Both candidates have won statewide Republican primaries but have not yet clicked as the east/west team. Running fourth in the early polls may help them stay out of the line of fire when the real mud starts flying, but they need to come up with something to break out of the cellar and into the pack.

While it’s still early, primary money tends to flow to the front-runners. A candidate can lose in the early months and still be the first across the finish line in August, as long as the candidate keeps in position to win.

General Election
With 12 different potential match-ups for the general election, we don’t have room here to speculate on each race. But our polling shows each of the Republican candidates beating each of the Democrats by margins of 15 percent to 22 percent. The mood of the electorate and the general quality of the candidates certainly favor the Republicans in November.

The potential entry of former Republican Congressman Joe Schwarz as an Independent candidate could muck up the race. Our polling shows him pulling just 14 percent of the vote, with 8 percent coming from the Republican candidate and 5 percent from the Democrat candidate. In a close race, he could be the difference. But right now, it’s anything but close.

If I were a bookmaker, here are the early odds I’d give each candidate. But I’d wait until the first of August or November to place your bets.

GOP Nomination:
Hoekstra: 2-1
Cox: 2-1
Snyder: 3-1
Bouchard: 5-1

DEM Nomination
Dillon: 2-1
Bernero: 5-2
Smith: 15-1

General Election
GOP Nominee: 2-3
DEM Nominee: 3-1
Independent: 25-1

Tom Shields is founder and president of Marketing Resource Group (MRG), a Lansing-based political marketing and public relations firm.

Daddy-Daughter Dance

by Tim Skubick
March 12, 2010

This is a tale of four fathers with daughters.

Let’s start with Bob Bowman.

For two full terms he worked as state treasurer for Gov. Jim Blanchard. “I’ve always been interested in being governor,” Bowman confessed after he left state government.

But the interest remained unexplored until Lt. Gov. John Cherry dropped out of the race for governor at the start of 2010. Bowman’s chance was at hand.

He formed an exploratory committee. But within days, Bowman had pulled out before ever getting in.

In part, the decision was based on the reaction of his daughter. The high school sophomore was two years from graduation and, like most kids her age, wanted to finish high school where she was, with all those old friends at her real home, and not in some “new home” in Michigan.

To be sure, it was not the only reason for Bowman to stay in Connecticut. But best we can tell, it had an impact on Bowman the daddy, which trumped Bowman the would-be governor.

He confided, “maturity sucks.” But he picked kid over career.

Rick Snyder started his family discussion about running for governor over a year ago. His wife brought it up first, and they went to the three kids next. He was concerned about his daughter and how she would react when other kids said nasty things about her dad. After all, he is a nerd.

She said she could handle it and, as he periodically checks in with her, Snyder reports she continues to handle it. Talk to him two months from now when the nasty segment of the campaign may be in full bloom.

Genesee County Democrat Dan Kildee also was caught off guard by the earth-shattering Cherry announcement. He dusted off his desire to be governor shortly thereafter and went to his family, too.

Kildee said his son was all for the bid for governor. His daughter was not, but when he formed his exploratory committee and said, “I intend to run,” he reported that his family was on board.

Maybe the daughter said a prayer? Kildee decided not to run.

House Speaker Andy Dillon was standing in the back of the room waiting to say hi to a bunch of business executives. It was the first of what would be a grueling and unending schedule of thumb-sucker events that candidates must endure to self-promote their candidacy.

As Dillon leaned against the wall waiting to take the microphone, someone noted that he had seen a picture in the newspaper of Dillon and his teenage daughter. It was taken the day before in Dillon’s hometown of Redford, where he and his family launched his bid to be governor.

Any man who has a daughter and saw the photo felt the tenderness between the two.

“That was a really beautiful picture,” the person whispered to Dillon.

He had been so busy, he had not even seen it, let alone had a chance to cherish the moment. And then without prompting he whispered, “Yeah, I won’t see her again until November.”

Voters rarely see the personal sacrifices politicians make in order to serve the public. They never get credit for that from an uncaring electorate. When they are out working a room, daughters and sons, not to mention spouses, are left to keep the home fires burning, wondering when the candidate/parent will be home.

You gotta wonder how many of those on the home front secretly hope the candidate loses.

For Bowman and Kildee, no worries there.

Tim Skubick is Michigan’s Senior Capitol correspondent and has anchored the weekly public TV series “Off the Record” since 1972. He also covers the Capitol and politics for WLNS-TV6 in Lansing.

Tim Skubick Extra Extra… (A weekly bonus only for Dome readers)

You Can’t Make This Stuff Up
In an unbelievable move, some key union leaders have asked former candidate for governor John Cherry to reconsider his decision to drop out of the race.

It is another in a series of unprecedented twists in the Democratic race for governor that has turned this spectacle into a certified train wreck.

Here is the irony.

Last December, when then-candidate John Cherry knew his campaign was about to self-destruct, he went to the UAW and pleaded for its early endorsement. Cherry needed an infusion of money and grassroots support to keep his front-runner campaign alive.

The union stiffed him.

Within a month, Cherry shocked the political establishment by packing it in.

Now, within the last week, the union leaders went back to Cherry hoping he might change his mind. He told them no. Cherry will not confirm any of this, only to say, “I don’t know what you are talking about.”

The fact that this happened underscores that some elements in the state’s labor movement are not overjoyed with the current field for governor that includes House Speaker Andy Dillon, Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero, and Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith.

Each has enough baggage to warrant an attempted re-do on Cherry.

Labor appears to be fragmented, which is not always a healthy sign — and also nothing new.

Dillon is getting the endorsement of the building-trades unions. The leadership was pleased when the Redford Democrat took on Gov. Granholm last year when she wanted to slap a hold on badly needed construction jobs from a proposed coal-fired energy plant.

Bernero may get the UAW endorsement, but there are mixed signals on that.

And Ms. Smith, who clearly has the resume to be governor, is not raising any money, and it appears no one is coming to her rescue.

On top of all that, the Teamsters may be looking at making an endorsement in the other party, which would not be out of character for them.

All of this is reaching critical mass as union leaders are set to huddle behind closed doors on March 12, hoping against hope to find a consensus candidate for governor.

“I think we can,” reflects David Hecker, who runs the Michigan Federation of Teachers.

Based on all these latest signals, Mr. Hecker might want to think again.

Messin’ with Mikey
Michigan’s political landscape is strewn with popular wisdom that turned out to be false. To wit, John Engler can’t beat Gov. Jim Blanchard; Jennifer Granholm can’t beat money bags Dick DeVos; and now comes…Mike Bouchard will disconnect from the governor’s race to seek a more winnable seat in Congress.

Where the heck did that notion come from?

Certainly not from Bouchard, whose campaign sent out a to-the-point statement: “I’m running for governor. I am not running for Congress.”

Nonetheless, seems like all the other campaigns have heard the “rumor” that goes like this: Bouchard’s gov effort is not getting traction despite his impressive $800,000 fundraising; the GOP folks in D.C. want to take out Oakland County incumbent Congressman Gary Peters in the worst way and figure Bouchard is the guy to do it; dissolving the Bouchard-Terri Land ticket would be a twofer for the party, in that Land could run for retiring Congressman Vern Ehlers’ seat in her West Michigan home base and forget about being lieutenant governor with Bouchard.

Far-fetched? Of course. Totally out of the question? Of course not.

Just for the sake of filling out the rest of this blog, let’s assume that the buzz has some gravitas. The first challenge for Bouchard is how does he “message” this thing in a positive way?

His detractors will quickly tag Bouchard with job-hunting for his own personal gain. The story line? Unable to win the governor nomination, political opportunist Mike Bouchard went hunting for a post he might win. When will this guy stop running for every office that opens up?

The tag could stick, but Bouchard could counter it with the following. The party came to me with the desire to win back control of the Michigan congressional delegation so that we could effectively fight President Obama’s socialist policies. If we defeat Peters, and Terri holds onto the GOP seat on the west side of the state, we can do more good for Michigan. So it is with reluctance that I bow out of the governor’s race for the good of the party.

Hogwash, says the Bouchard team while reminding that some of the other contenders for governor would love to undercut his effort by fanning a story that puts El Sheriff in a negative light.

Bouchard’s guys can’t prove that, but they are surely thinking it.

Switalski Hit by Rangel Mess
State Senator Mickey Switalski probably doesn’t know Congressman Charlie Rangel from Adam, but Mr. Rangel has had a profound impact on the senator’s effort to unseat incumbent Congressman Sandy Levin this August in the Democratic primary.

Funny how seemingly unrelated political events can be linked, and in this case the New York congressman’s behavior has influenced the outcome of the contest between the Macomb County senator and the veteran Democratic congressman from Royal Oak.

Check this out. Switalski shocked the political establishment last year by announcing that he would challenge Sandy Levin, who has served in Congress since 1983.

What did the Mickster have to lose? He was term limited out of Lansing, had nowhere to go, so why not take a swipe at the 78-year old incumbent? And if lightening struck, Switalski could trade his senator label for U.S. congressman.

To be charitable to the challenger, it was a long-shot from the get-go, long before Mr. Rangel got into trouble over ethical questions surrounding his personal finances. In the wake of that, Rangel stepped down as chair of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee.

And guess who is the new chair?

Much to Switalski’s chagrin, it’s none other than Sandy Levin.

Levin now has control over congressional spending or, if you want to be blunt, he can influence where the pork barrel funds go. Which means he can campaign back here and tell local voters, “if you send me back to Congress I will make sure Michigan gets its fair share of federal support.”

In a battered economy, any ray of hope will be greeted with applause. And how does Switalski counter that?

He might say, “I’m against pork barrel spending.”

But Levin can counter, “So am I, but if other states are going to take it, Michigan is now at the head of the line to get something, too.”

Mr. Levin will milk this chairmanship for all it is worth, and Mr. Switalski can’t do much about it — except send a nasty note to Rangel for messing up what little chance he had of winning in the first place.