Columns

Jack Lessenberry

Destroying the Village
to Save It

March 2, 2012

BLOOMFIELD HILLS – Mitt Romney grew up in this highly affluent town, on a secluded street in the richest suburb in the most well-heeled county in Michigan.

And though he hasn’t lived here for nearly half a century, Oakland County saved him from a humiliating primary election defeat at the hands of Rick Santorum, a man who two months ago was almost totally unknown in Michigan.

The son of one of Michigan’s best-known governors beat Santorum, a former senator from Pennsylvania, by a mere 32,000 votes. Almost all that came from his margin in Oakland County.

Wayne County, which includes the city of Detroit, where Romney was born in 1947, gave him a margin of nearly 10,000. Take away those two counties, and the native son lost Michigan.

Santorum beat Romney in two-thirds of the state’s counties. They each carried the same number of congressional districts and split Michigan’s convention delegates.

When the results were clear, Romney told his supporters, “We didn’t win by a lot, but we won by enough.”

But did he? Not according to a senior Santorum strategist, who was quoted as saying the contest was essentially a tie — and that the vote could “only be seen as a disaster for Mitt Romney.”

That’s not likely to be the way most people perceive it. The former Massachusetts governor did win — and also defeated his main rival in Arizona the same day by a much larger margin. That gives him some momentum heading into next week’s ten-state Super Tuesday contest, which includes the primary in Ohio.

Romney has far more money and more troops on the ground in more states than anyone else. He’s also run for president before, and should know more about what it takes.

But looked at analytically, the result in Michigan could be seen as a humiliation for Mitt Romney. Even if he wins the nomination, it indicates some huge weaknesses.

Consider: Yes, Romney beat Santorum, partly by spending nearly twice as much. But add the essentially anti-Romney votes cast for Newt Gingrich, and Romney loses. Now add in the Ron Paul votes, and Romney loses by a landslide. According to unofficial final returns, Mitt Romney got 410,517 votes in Michigan. But 588,325 votes were cast against him.

And consider that even in a contest where social conservatives dominate, Santorum is something of a far-out candidate. He has equated stable gay relationships with “man-on-dog” sex. Forget abortion as a litmus test; Santorum says the U.S. Supreme Court made a mistake when it legalized contraception back in the 1960s.

He also says John F. Kennedy’s famous speech on the need to keep church and state separate “makes me throw up.”

Probably few Michigan voters would agree with Santorum on contraception. Fewer still ever heard of him before a few weeks ago. So … why did so many Republicans vote for him?

The answer may have everything to do with their opinion of Mitt Romney, a man who doesn’t seem to inspire anything like the passion that voters felt for Ronald Reagan or Barack Obama.

Those supporting Romney told reporters they did so because “It makes sense. He has the qualifications,” or said something like “He‘s the only one who can win in November.”

That might be the case. Certainly, the rest of the primary field is loaded with baggage, from Gingrich’s three wives and admitted adultery to Ron Paul’s suspected John Birch Society ties.

But campaigns are largely about romance. Given their choice, few men — or women — would want to date the “sensible, rational choice” their mother might pick out for them. They want to fall in love, and be swept off their feet. Voters are much the same.

Conservatives are deeply distrustful, too, of the former governor’s views on social issues. They note that when Romney was running for the Senate in Massachusetts in 1994, he was pro-choice and strongly pro-gay rights. Now, he says he has changed.

But what does he really believe? Does a man really change his fundamental beliefs in late middle age?

Regardless, the hard-fought primary contest doesn’t seem to be doing anything to help the eventual nominee win in November.

Back in the late 1960s, when Romney was a student at Brigham Young University in Utah, other young men his age were dying in Vietnam. One of the officers in charge of that war once said, “It became necessary to destroy the village in order to save it.“

Something like that may be happening in the GOP nomination battle, where the candidates seem to be striving to outdo each other in appealing to their party’s hard right wing.

Why? Those are the people who vote in primaries. Turnout is traditionally small, and skewed to the ideological extremes. In Michigan, this meant all the Republicans proudly trumpeted that they would never have bailed out the auto industry.

Trouble is, that bailout is widely perceived as the one that worked. The auto companies survived; they’ve paid much of the money back, and are again profitable, and even adding workers.

Bashing the bailout made little sense in Michigan, but that’s what all the GOP candidates did. When the primary campaign began, Romney was nearly even with President Obama in a hypothetical November contest. Today, the polls show him 18 points behind.

November is still a long way away. But at this rate, Republicans may find the road to the White House considerably longer.

Veteran journalist and national Emmy Award winner Jack Lessenberry teaches at Wayne State University, serves as Michigan Radio’s senior political analyst and writes regularly for several publications. He also serves as The Toledo Blade’s writing coach and ombudsman and is host of the weekly television show Deadline Now on WGTE-TV in Toledo.

Columns


John Lindstrom
Gongwer News Service

I Told You So!

March 2, 2012

Don’t you just hate it when someone is so churlish to say, “I told you so”? Don’t you just detest the smarmy smugness oozing from the phrase? Worst of all, don’t you just hate the fact that they may be right, that they have the right to be smug?

Oh how annoying, how obnoxiously annoying.

Now what did we say last week? Something about a primary, in fact something about the delegate allocation rules of the Michigan Republican Party following the Republican Presidential Primary. What was said now? Hmm, something about a tie, was it? Something about a candidate being able to claim a win if he was able to split the delegates should he win in the congressional districts even if he didn’t win the popular vote?

Ahem, comments about telling one so, well, we’ll let it pass.

But what was foretold is exactly what has occurred following Tuesday’s primary. Indeedy weedy, but our purpose is not to gloat…too much…but to raise more questions about how it occurred. Specifically, the question of former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum’s tactic to call on Democrats to vote for him and what effect that might have going forward.
First, a moment to gleefully analyze the actions of Tuesday past. Tuesday’s primary was a kind of a kiss-your-sister primary. Michigan born and bred Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, won the popular vote and the bragging rights. Mr. Santorum appears to have won close to half the delegates because he won half the congressional districts. In that, he has won the right to scowl and mutter.

Mr. Santorum accomplished this because party rules allocate district delegates on a winner-take-all basis and Mr. Santorum won seven districts. So too did Mr. Romney.

Mr. Romney won a tight victory, and there is no question that absentee ballots and an overwhelming support in Oakland County played a major role in that. Mr. Santorum’s people say Mr. Romney won by just 3 percent; Mr. Romney’s people say, “Who cares?” And Mr. Romney’s people are right.

If the Tigers had beat the Cardinals by one run scored in the bottom of the ninth of the seventh game of the World Series (as heaven knows, they should have), anyone of sensible mind would say of a Cardinals fan who groused “It was just by one run” they were harvesting sour grapes. Such a comment by the Santorumites is as sour a grape as one could drink. If the position were reversed, certainly Mr. Santorum would claim a great win.

Mr. Santorum has some reason to claim a tie in the important category of delegates. His aides also say it is a victory. Yeah, okay, sure. Obviously, to win the nomination one needs sufficient delegates. So walking away with the same number of delegates, we think, does entitle him to claim a win in that regard. He could do so more graciously, but perhaps we ask too much.

From the campaign standpoint, Mr. Romney actually has the advantage because he can say he won. He can then take that advantage into the Super Tuesday primaries and caucuses. It helps in getting attention, it shows some momentum, but it will not be enough to win.

Let us return now to the question of why Mr. Santorum has an equal number of delegates. Because there is a chance that he may have an equal number of delegates because of his call to Democrats to vote for him. Well, at least, he may have won that equal number because some Democrats did vote for him.

Now, let us remember that Democrats have for some time debated whether they should go and vote in the Republican primary to make things interesting for Mr. Romney. Democrats, and others but especially Democrats, are furious at him for his 2008 comments on the prospective auto bailout. The idea that Democrats discussed was to vote for the candidate who was polling closest to Mr. Romney.

With Mr. Santorum’s emergence, he became the target of choice. In fact, when some Republican legislators invited Democrats to vote in the primary, Democrats leaped all over the invite.

Mr. Santorum then raised the ante with a controversial robo-call urging Democrats to vote for him to send “a message” to Mr. Romney. The Romney camp reacted furiously with its own robo-call saying in effect Mr. Santorum had taken on the other team’s uniform.

The issue of cross party voting in primaries has always been a vexed point. In the very first presidential primary in 1972, Democrats charged Republicans came in to vote for then Alabama Governor George Wallace (who had been shot the day before). Research indicates the Democrats may not have been as open-minded as they thought and that Mr. Wallace’s win was mostly Democrat-borne. Regardless, both parties have fumed over crossover primary voting, most recently in 2000 when Democrats probably did play a slight role in U.S. Sen. John McCain beating then Texas Governor George W. Bush (though Mr. McCain appealed to far more Republicans than perhaps then Governor John Engler thought).

This year, a number of Democrats said they had no intention of voting in the GOP primary because they didn’t think it right. They don’t like it when GOPs vote in Democratic primaries. They didn’t care who the nominee was because they think President Barack Obama will beat any comer. And of course they didn’t want the fact they requested a Republican ballot being public.

Most telling, Mr. Santorum’s robo-call did tread on ground not often trod. He didn’t just call on Democrats to vote for him, he wanted them to send a message to Mr. Romney.

What message? Mr. Santorum opposed the auto-bailout as much as Mr. Romney. Nor did he miss a chance to say he opposed the auto bailout and all bailouts to crowds, said such to a crowd in Lansing (and got very tepid applause when he did) probably at the same time his robo-call went out. So this was not a call to act on policy. This was basically a call to stick it to the other guy.

Now, did it work? More completely, did the whole idea of Democrats voting for Mr. Santorum work? Well….

About 9 percent of the total turnout identified itself as Democratic. Certainly they didn’t win Mr. Santorum the popular vote. Exit polls indicate most those who identified themselves as Republicans mostly voted for Mr. Romney.

But did Democrats get Mr. Santorum to a delegate tie? Consider: Mr. Santorum won seven congressional districts and Mr. Romney won seven. Mr. Santorum won in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th and 13th districts, Mr. Romney in the 5th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th and 14th.

What’s with the 13th? It’s a Democratic stronghold that encompasses much of Detroit. There Mr. Santorum nabbed 9,481 votes to Mr. Romney’s 7,946 votes. It had the smallest overall turnout of any district in the entire state, just 26,306 votes total cast. Heck, Mr. Santorum got 26,898 votes in a losing cause in the 12th district.

Could it be Democrats voting in that district did actually get Mr. Santorum two additional delegates? Might have been. More data from exit polls and such is not entirely available, so we can’t yet say with certainty. But it sure looks that way.

Which brings us to the next question: could the Santorum robo-call work against him? The Romney campaign spent the last day of the Michigan primary campaign pillorying Mr. Santorum for effectively committing partisan treason. In another tight primary fight, could this be brought up against him? Would it hurt him in a tight race?

Well, if it does, Mr. Romney could always say, “I told you so.”

John Lindstrom is publisher of Gongwer News Service. For more than 50 years in Michigan, Gongwer News Service has provided independent, comprehensive, accurate and timely coverage of issues in and around Michigan’s government and political systems. For subscription information, including a free trial, visit Gongwer online.

Columns


John Lindstrom
Gongwer News Service

Santorum Time?

February 17, 2012

By one minute after midnight, Wednesday, February 29, all of the following observations may be forgotten, but until then it is time to share a memory from three months ago.

And that memory is of the press section during the Republican presidential debate held at Oakland University this past November: an entire gymnasium given over to tables filled with reporters from around the world, fixed on their computers and the multiple TV screens, sucking coffee, gobbling M&Ms (and you wondered why reporters die young), chattering in a general assembly of languages, watching with great annoyance as what passed for security kept them from leaving the gym.

A scrum section had been set up with the names of the candidates listed, so they could all come down afterwards to speak to reporters once the momentous debate was done. So reporters waited for Romney, for Gingrich, for Bachmann, for Cain, for Paul, at their appointed spots.

Texas Governor Rick Perry appeared, trying to recoup from his calamitous gaffe during the debate when he forgot to turn on his memory. Former Utah Governor John Huntsman appeared at about the same time and was able to draw off some of the reporters who had crowded Mr. Perry.

And that was it. Except after a bit, a tallish, quiet fellow stood by the sign that said Santorum. An aide rushed around trying to gather attention to former Pennsylvania U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, and a few reporters, this one included, went up to him, more out of pity than anything else.

He expressed the required optimism of all candidates that the public would rally to him. We all nodded, smiled, said, “Thank you, Senator” and went back to our coffee, M&Ms and computers to write about the seeming disintegration of the Perry campaign. Mr. Santorum was a footnote to the campaign, reporters and everyone else thought, with no money, no organization and no flash to draw supporters to him.

Rick Perry is gone as a candidate. So is Michele Bachmann. So is Herman Cain. So is John Huntsman. Ron Paul gives all the appearance of being a candidate for president so long as he draws breath. And Newt Gingrich insists he is a candidate until the Republican convention in Tampa, but he’s not coming to Michigan.

So the Michigan Presidential Primary is now a race between Michigan native and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and the once lonely Mr. Santorum.

Some 10 days before the primary the once lonely Mr. Santorum right now seems ready to pound Michigan’s supposedly favorite son, Mr. Romney. That will, of course, be completely dependent on how much pounding the always smiling Mr. Romney does to Mr. Santorum via ads and interviews and personal appearances. The tactic worked against Mr. Gingrich in Florida. We shall see if it works here.

In fighting this upcoming fight, though, Republicans might want to think about whether they will make life tougher for themselves come November.

This unexpected campaign fight also raises some points about the changing nature of politics, and raises a question about how lucky (as well as skillful) Governor Rick Snyder may have been in 2010.

Let’s be clear: no one, no matter what he says he said at whatever time about Michigan being a challenging state, no one thought the Michigan primary would be in doubt. Everyone thought it was an easy W in the column for Mr. Romney. The only real question was would Michigan be the clincher for Mr. Romney’s nomination.

After all, he is a son of Michigan, born in Detroit, raised in Bloomfield Hills. Moreover, his father, George Romney, helped lead passage of the current Michigan Constitution and was a popular and influential governor through the 1960s. At one time, George Romney was seen as a possible president, and he then was secretary of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.

The current Mr. Romney’s family has been a major force in Republican politics. His brother Scott has served in state offices and been an advisor to leading Republicans. His former sister in law, Ronna, was national Republican committee-woman for many years and the GOP candidate for the U.S. Senate in 1996.

Even more, Mr. Romney won the primary in 2008.

Virtually every political prognosticator says Mr. Romney would be a more competitive candidate against President Barack Obama than, well, than anyone else.

So what’s the deal? Why suddenly is Mr. Romney facing an absolutely must-win election in Michigan? For if Mr. Romney wins Michigan it still may not mean he is the nominee; but if he loses the primary, he could, in fact, be fatally wounded in his quest.

Part of the problem lies with history. Anyone born the day George Romney was elected Michigan governor is 49 today. There are fewer people with memory of the Romneys, and fewer still who have any emotional tie to the family.

Much of the issue lies in the dramatic change in the conservative base of the Republican Party since the 2008 election.

The fight for the GOP nomination that year centered more on, well, centrist Republicans in the persons of Mr. Romney and eventual nominee Arizona Sen. John McCain. The social conservative element was present in former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, and he fought nearly to the end, generating considerable support. Mr. McCain recognized the need for that element on the ticket, so he selected former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his vice-presidential nominee (though she hurt the ticket more than helped).

But the election of Mr. Obama triggered an unexpected backlash of hyper-right-wing protest. It was also fueled by the policies enacted in the early days of the administration, and, frankly, by misappropriation of some of the policies of former President George W. Bush to fight the recession (such as the TARP plan). Some of the reaction was strange, such as the birthers; some of it just plain ugly, since racism has been a factor with some (not all, and certainly not most) of the critics.

Much of it, however, signaled an end to the type of conservatism dominant from the post World War II period through the 1990s. Conservatives such as Barry Goldwater, certainly George Romney and maybe even former President Ronald Reagan, might scratch their heads at the new conservatism that ties ultra-libertarian attitudes about business and government spending to an almost punitive Old Testament attitude about social issues.

It is certainly an energized, earnest element, which takes an evangelical zeal to its politics. These conservatives are motivated, really motivated. They are also often unforgiving. They insist on true believers being elected, sure they will capture the support of the nation awaiting them. In fact, it is a similar attitude to those on the far left.

Most Americans share neither the extreme conservative or liberal views, theirs being more a mélange of moderate views that can lean rightish or leftish at will. Most Americans don’t vote in primaries. Certainly most Michiganders don’t, which reflects a problem for Mr. Romney.

Most Michiganders are worried about the economy, however, which Mr. Romney will try to exploit by hyping his business experience against Mr. Santorum’s lack of executive experience.

While Mr. Santorum appears far more the appealing candidate to Tea Party supporters, Mr. Romney is already pushing many Tea Party buttons on Mr. Santorum, spotlighting his support of raising debt ceilings and co-sponsoring spending bills (which once both were relatively non-controversial).

Mr. Santorum, however, can flip the switch on the ultimate Tea Party hate button: that Mr. Romney is the father of “Obamacare.”

Because Mr. Santorum is of a more blue collar background, Mr. Romney is hammering away at labor. A Romney operative was asked if that might not hurt him (given the number of union voters in the state). It won’t in the primary, the operative said, not among Republican voters.

Should Mr. Romney win the nomination, attacking unions now could hurt him in his native state in November. Especially when tied to his comments on letting the auto industry go bankrupt (Mr. Romney still has not finessed the differences between the legal and accounting sense of bankruptcy compared to the moral sense of the word), slamming unions won’t help.

A bigger problem for Mr. Romney is the prospect of losing Michigan. Yes, he has the money and the organization and the ardent desire of party leaders to win, to go on, to fight to the end at Tampa. But losing on your home turf, being rejected by your people, there is no good message there to be spun in any sense. It wouldn’t mean he loses the nomination. Not at least on February 28. But it could be the tipping point, the moment that sets in motion the death spiral.

It could be, should Mr. Romney lose the popular vote, the moment we wonder if, as he stood unnoticed for a moment back in November, Mr. Santorum was assessing the local real estate and planning to take it over.

John Lindstrom is publisher of Gongwer News Service. For more than 50 years in Michigan, Gongwer News Service has provided independent, comprehensive, accurate and timely coverage of issues in and around Michigan’s government and political systems. For subscription information, including a free trial, visit Gongwer online.

Extremist Talk and Blithering Outrage

by John Lindstrom
Gongwer News Service
April 2, 2010

What is the etiquette when one is in the dentist’s chair and the dentist is peering down one’s gullet, impervious and intimidating behind the mask, various sharp tools in hand, all the while muttering about “Obamacare taking over everything…won’t have insurance this time next year…socialists everywhere, socialists taking over the country…guess the firing squads will be next…remember Castro? When he took over, 500 of them lined up in front of a ditch and machine-gunned down…guess won’t be too much longer before we get that.”

Does one take that moment to say, “Oh don’t be daft?” Or considering the nearness of sharp tools to soft tissue, merely mutter a non-committal grunt?

The ongoing anguish following passage of the national health care law continues, and it is maddening and amusing and infuriating all at once. On Facebook the fulminating from opponents, including Michigan legislators, parried and countered by the righteous sniggering of supporters, always provides a good excuse to enjoy a stiffening beverage.

Rep. Dave Agema (R-Grandville), for example, has in various Facebook posts called congressional and administration Democrats crooks, said the health care law will trigger a double-dip recession, and castigated news reporting on the bill, saying he felt like he was in Russia and reading Pravda. Compared to other comments from others with apparently higher blood pressures, Mr. Agema is a courtly gentleman.

Add to all this the arrests of the Hutaree crew down in Lenawee and Hillsdale counties, however, and the ongoing anguish is a bit worrying.

Now the Hutaree hysterics are a different breed of nutcase altogether, aiming, as is alleged, to do their bit to precipitate the end days by starting a war on police, presuming the successful slaughter of cops will inspire the mass to take up arms against government and, what…release the pure red heifer? Raise up the temple walls? Hear the trumpet sound across the heavens? (Who teaches these guys their strategy anyway? And does the scripture “I shall come as a thief in the night” mean nothing to these endtiming ijits? And on a purely parochial complaint, hows come these guys get busted and everyone remembers the Michigan Militia and the Nichols boys and says Michigan should make anti-government wackiness a growth industry? Timothy McVeigh hailed from the otherwise charming town of Lockport, New York; why not locate a fruitcake stand there? And Idaho, remember Justus Township, remember the Unabomber…oh cripes, he went to UM. Never mind.)

But with phoned threats to members of Congress, and gas lines being cut at homes, and bricks flying through the Livingston County Republican office, and the utterly bizarre suggestion that large numbers of Americans consider President Barack Obama the anti-christ, one could be excused for nervously wondering if the arrest of the Hutaree howlies could inspire a less balanced critic to see the passage of health care as the sign to start the tribulation.

Extremist talk and blithering outrage are part of our national heritage. After all, John Adams’ campaign warned that if Thomas Jefferson were elected president in 1800, old men’s heads would be raised on pikes and women would be raped in the streets with impunity.

No party is exempt from pronouncing outrage. The same Republicans and conservatives who today scream about socialist takeovers and holding sales on brownshirts were just a few years ago howling treason at Democrats and liberals who opposed the war in Iraq and called then President George W. Bush a fascist. (Note to both: talk to somebody who lived either in a socialist or fascist country, and that person will likely say you are out of your mind when you say the U.S. is going either way.)

Even within factions, levels of outrage exist and turn on each other. Why does U.S. Sen. John McCain (R-Arizona) have to worry about a tea-party upstart in his home state? What angers campaign aides for Attorney General Mike Cox when fellow Republican gubernatorial candidate Rick Snyder (who has called for repeal of the health care law) suggests Mr. Cox shouldn’t spend the state’s money on a lawsuit challenging the measure? What in the so-far more aggressively rightist campaign of Rep. Justin Amash (R-Kentwood) worries supporters of U.S. Rep. Vern Ehlers (R-Grand Rapids) whose favored candidate to succeed him is the unshakeable conservative Sen. Bill Hardiman (R-Kentwood)?

Even so, there’s nothing to worry about in the end, right? We are all letting off various levels of steam as we have for years and years and years, so there is nothing to worry about, right? We’re all on the same team in the end, and we will all pull together and we’re just loosening our collars and stretching our tonsils, right?

We can hope so. Yet the growing inability to civilly disagree, to even engage in argument without reducing the dialogue to playground semantics, and to be unwilling to consider opposing points and look at broader context is both depressing and worrying.

There was a time when it was our civic duty to at least hear the other guy out, as anyone old enough to remember Jack Kirkpatrick and Shana Alexander on 60 Minutes can attest. They each made their argument. Nobody talked over the other. Viewers favored one or the other, but they at least understood that they needed to listen.

But technology and its ability to segment and control idealistic markets, combined with political tactics and strategies aimed at isolating and controlling message, make the ability to reasonably argue and civilly disagree harder and harder.

Politics is rapidly devolving to an uncorked bar fight, and once punches get thrown worse things can happen. The western democracies, be they in the Americas, Europe, Asia, Oceania or Africa, exist on the concept of civil disagreement, on mutual respect even in disagreement.

There are countries where the worst is expected and treated as just the daily fare of political business. For example, in 2008 two Nigerian journalists were interviewing then Michigan Republican chair Saul Anuzis about the upcoming election.

Will this be an intense campaign, they asked Mr. Anuzis. He nodded his head, and said, yes, this should be a very intense campaign, and it will be very intense in Michigan.

The Nigerians nodded in understanding, and then asked completely innocently: and how many people do you expect to be killed during the campaign? Mr. Anuzis nearly fell out of his chair in astonishment. It was an absurd question, here, but clearly not in Nigeria.

Practicing moderate extremism, tolerant outrage, friendly fulminations, topped off with a communal brew, is a virtue we should all remember.

Recall that from the wild excesses of the 1800 campaign, Adams and Jefferson again became stalwart, passionate friends and the nation was better for it. And that is something to sink one’s teeth into.

John Lindstrom is publisher of Gongwer News Service. For nearly 50 years in Michigan, Gongwer News Service has provided independent, comprehensive, accurate and timely coverage of issues in and around Michigan’s government and political systems. For subscription information, including a free trial, visit Gongwer online.

What a Difference a Year Makes

by Tom Shields
March 19, 2010

Just a year ago, the pundits had the Republican Party on the verge of extinction. Time Magazine said, “Republicans have the desperate aura of an endangered species,” and speculated that they could sink to the level of a third party in a two-party system.

John Cherry looked like a prohibitive favorite for the Dems’ pick for governor, and the Senate Democrats were measuring Mike Bishop’s office for drapes.

What a difference a year makes.

Republican governors in Obama states like Virginia and New Jersey. A Republican senator from Massachusetts and here in Michigan, a landslide state Senate victory by Mike Nofs in a seat won by Obama and considered a safe bet for the Democrats in 2010.

As we enter the engagement period of the 2010 election cycle, the polls and pundits are all predicting a GOP year for Michigan and the nation. Our polls have seen a swing of almost 20 percentage points toward Republicans when asking Michigan voters which party does a better job of running state government (from -8 percent to +9 percent).

Many people who voted for change in 2008 did not get the change they were looking for in 2009. The voters are clearly supporting candidates who promise less government. The unorganized Tea Party movement is held together by its common opposition to increased government spending and higher taxes — issues that align them with the Republicans in 2010.

And though we are four months out from the primary and seven months out from the general election, each party’s candidate field for governor of Michigan seems to be almost set. Now seems to be as good a time as ever to handicap the race for the Governor’s Office.

Democrat Primary
The shift in the political winds has swept the best candidates out of the Democrat race for governor. After John Cherry, Bob Bowman and Denise Ilitch decided that 2010 wasn’t going to be their year, the Democrat Party is left with three candidates who, collectively, probably do not have 50 percent name I.D. or enough money in the bank to cover Rick Snyder’s monthly consultant bills. Our polls show “Don’t Know” clearly leading the field with 64 percent, followed by Dillon (18 percent), Bernero (9 percent) and Smith (7 percent).

One year ago, Andy Dillon was the one candidate for governor who Republicans did not want to face. They may get their wish as Dillon finds himself in political primary purgatory. He’s too liberal for the conservatives and too conservative for the Democrat Party hierarchy. His endorsement from the building trades will help soothe some fears from some Dems, but his pro-life beliefs and his legislation to control the health care benefits of public employees has already cost him support from the AFL-CIO and puts him on a crash course with pro-choice Democrats and the MEA.

Of course, the candidate benefiting from all this is Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero. Bernero is the true accidental candidate whose stock has risen as all the other candidates dropped out of the race. The ultimate political opportunist, Bernero seems to be benefiting from the mere fact that he’s not Andy Dillon. Though he’s down in the early polls, if he can cobble together support from the liberals, pro-choice women, the unions and urban voters, he could be tough to beat in the August primary.

It appears that the only way Alma Wheeler Smith is going to get some respect for her candidacy is by recruiting Aretha Franklin as one of her co-chairs. With little money and a small base of support, she is destined to play third fiddle in the Democrat primary.

Republican Primary
In the Republican primary, Rick Snyder, the tough rich nerd, is shaking up the field by dumping $3 million in the campaign — outspending the other three candidates by a 10 to 1 margin.

Our most recent poll shows this turning into a three-way race with Hoekstra (21 percent), Cox (21 percent) and Snyder (20 percent) in a dead heat, and Mike Bouchard stuck at 10 percent.

The shortage of funds in the state’s matching fund pool could have a significant impact in the Republican primary as the other three candidates struggle to match Snyder’s bankroll. If Snyder continues at this pace, he could spend $8 to $10 million in the primary — more than double what his three opponents will spend combined.

One of the key developments to watch will be the endorsement of Right-to-Life. Snyder doesn’t meet RTL endorsement criteria, and if they weigh into the primary, one of the other three candidates could be propelled to front-runner status.

While Snyder’s media blitz has him moving up in the polls, it appears that west Michigan voters aren’t ready to embrace the nerd and are sticking with Congressman Pete Hoekstra. The candidate with the smallest war chest has the strongest base of local support. Hoekstra needs to raise the funds to defend his base and expand it to win the primary. But for now, Hoekstra sits on his west Michigan perch, until someone knocks him off.

One candidate trying to do just that is Attorney General Mike Cox. While Cox and Hoekstra have been neck and neck in the polls for the past year, Snyder’s media buy seems to have cut into Cox’s support the most. But Cox has stockpiled some cash, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him the next one out of the gate to run some advertising to keep pace. With money, political savvy, statewide name I.D. and Asian Carp, expect Cox to be in the thick of things in August.

Three million dollars and a cute ad campaign have bought Ann Arbor businessman Rick Snyder about 50-percent name ID and some early support. But it remains to be seen if the “tough nerd” campaign can hold the momentum for the long haul. Historically, wealthy business candidates like Dick Chrysler and Jim Nicholson have jumped out to early leads by spending early money — only to fade in the end. Snyder must put a little more meat on those nerdy bones to withstand the attacks that are sure to come in June and July.

The most puzzling campaign for the Republican nomination is the campaign team of Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard and Secretary of State Terri Land. Both candidates have won statewide Republican primaries but have not yet clicked as the east/west team. Running fourth in the early polls may help them stay out of the line of fire when the real mud starts flying, but they need to come up with something to break out of the cellar and into the pack.

While it’s still early, primary money tends to flow to the front-runners. A candidate can lose in the early months and still be the first across the finish line in August, as long as the candidate keeps in position to win.

General Election
With 12 different potential match-ups for the general election, we don’t have room here to speculate on each race. But our polling shows each of the Republican candidates beating each of the Democrats by margins of 15 percent to 22 percent. The mood of the electorate and the general quality of the candidates certainly favor the Republicans in November.

The potential entry of former Republican Congressman Joe Schwarz as an Independent candidate could muck up the race. Our polling shows him pulling just 14 percent of the vote, with 8 percent coming from the Republican candidate and 5 percent from the Democrat candidate. In a close race, he could be the difference. But right now, it’s anything but close.

If I were a bookmaker, here are the early odds I’d give each candidate. But I’d wait until the first of August or November to place your bets.

GOP Nomination:
Hoekstra: 2-1
Cox: 2-1
Snyder: 3-1
Bouchard: 5-1

DEM Nomination
Dillon: 2-1
Bernero: 5-2
Smith: 15-1

General Election
GOP Nominee: 2-3
DEM Nominee: 3-1
Independent: 25-1

Tom Shields is founder and president of Marketing Resource Group (MRG), a Lansing-based political marketing and public relations firm.

Can the Candidates
Do the Job?

by John Lindstrom
Gongwer News Service
March 5, 2010

Herewith a point of argument that includes a prediction: if the professionals involved in government — that is, the people who work in and around state government, be they bureaucrats, lobbyists, policy analysts, reporters and others — were the only ones who could vote in the 2010 gubernatorial election, Michigan’s next governor would be John “Joe” Schwarz.

In fact, it is arguable that if those persons were the only ones who could vote in the election, Mr. Schwarz, former state senator, former member of Congress, former Republican candidate for governor, would win in a walk.

And in light of the surprising announcement Thursday night that former Genesee County Treasurer Dan Kildee was dropping out of the Democratic race barely more than a week after he got in, that prediction seems even more…predictable.

That prediction is not a knock, well not a hard knock, against any of the other remaining candidates running for governor: Republicans Attorney General Mike Cox, Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, U.S. Rep. Pete Hoekstra, Ann Arbor business executive Rick Snyder and Sen. Tom George (R-Kalamazoo) or Democrats House Speaker Andy Dillon (D-Redford Twp.), Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero and Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith (D-Salem Twp.).

But it is an expression of the frustration the professionals in government have endured, and the hope they have that whoever is elected governor in November knows what the hell he or she has to do and, even more importantly, how to get it done.

The field for governor should be set now. Others could still get in the race (and with Mr. Kildee’s exit some top Democrats might hope another name could emerge), but after the angst of the last several months that seems unlikely.

In the past two weeks there have been about a half-dozen major developments in the race: Mr. Kildee got in for the Democrats (to the relief of top Democrats worried about a Bernero/Dillon race), Mr. Dillon confirmed he was running, Mr. Dillon showed strength in new polls and so did Mr. Hoekstra and Mr. Snyder, and then to the surprise and some anguish of Democrats, Mr. Kildee got out.

The other development: Mr. Schwarz formed an exploratory committee for governor, to run as neither a Republican nor a Democrat. Until Mr. Kildee’s departure, Mr. Schwarz’s decision was probably the biggest surprise. Mr. Schwarz had been seen wavering on a possible independent bid. Earlier in the year he had said he was about 70 percent certain to run. By last week that had fallen to 50 percent certainty.

So his decision to establish an exploratory committee came as water in the desert for some people. There are lots of professionals eager to help his campaign, should Mr. Schwarz decide to run (which he has not yet).

Politics, and by extension government, is one of the few areas where professionalism is scorned by the public. Nobody wants his or her heart surgery performed by an amateur surgeon; nobody wants someone whose flying experience is limited to model airplanes piloting a 747 across the Atlantic; nobody wants a baker who has only made cookies with a Kenner Easy-Bake oven whipping up the daughter’s wedding cake; but nobody wants professional politicians trying to make government work. (Check out the reception Christopher Reeve’s character enjoyed when he defended professional negotiators in the film The Remains Of The Day, one of the few times the arts pay any tribute to the skill running a government can require.)

Yes, in a democratic republic we are all politicians because we are the government, and it is important to ensure that the viewpoints of all are included in the governing process. But there also have to be people who know how the law works, what the processes are, how to balance the books, how to make sure the cops show up when called and the inspectors find the nasty bugs whipped up in the peanut butter.

Talk to the people involved in government and it is striking how unenthusiastic they are about the candidates running for governor. They are not critical of each person’s intelligence. They worry somewhat about their different viewpoints, but they also know that whether from the right or the left, the person in charge tends to moderate, so eventually the new governor will lead more from the middle of the bird than from one of the wings.

But what the professionals worry about is: can any of these guys do the job? Can they figure out how to break down the partisan barriers that block so many things from taking effect? Can that person work efficiently — in other words, when he or she makes a pronouncement, will the bills or executive orders be ready to go in short order and not months? Can that person set an agenda and, as much as anyone can in a leadership position, stick to it? Can that person manage the different and sometimes competing elements of government so that the state advances by whatever measure one uses to determine advancement?

And can that person knock heads together when needed and still keep people talking to each other so resolutions are reached?

The fact that so many professionals, before Mr. Schwarz got in and Mr. Kildee got out, were interested in either Mr. Snyder or Mr. Kildee for governor should tell one something, at least about the other candidates. Mr. Snyder is backed by buckets of top business executives, who see him as a moderating influence outside of the bloodletting that goes on in government. Similarly, Mr. Kildee was seen as having effective governing cred that could have played well to the Democratic interest groups. But Mr. Kildee’s departure leaves the large middle ground of Michigan voters to consider Mr. Snyder. But Mr. Snyder is also a largely unknown quantity. The question remains, can he do the job?

Mr. Schwarz is a known quantity. He has become an independent because he disagrees with the direction (whichever direction that is) the Republican Party is heading. But he refuses to become a Democrat (in fact, Democrats tried hard to get him to switch parties and he declined). If Republicans now label themselves Reagan Republicans, Mr. Schwarz is a Lincoln Republican, a Teddy Roosevelt Republican, an Eisenhower and Rockefeller and Vandenberg and Milliken Republican. In other words, he is the kind of Republican many Republicans now reject by simply saying, “They weren’t conservatives.” (Maybe not, but boy could they govern.)

Nobody among the professionals has any doubt that Mr. Schwarz could do the job. Which is exactly why if the election were left to them, Mr. Schwarz would now profitably be measuring the drapes in the executive office for when he moves in next January.

But the election is open to all, and it is a fool’s errand to say who will win in November. The likely winner will come from one of the two parties, and right now the GOP has the edge. Everyone expects the primaries and the general election following to be so vicious that the public will feel comfortable voting only if the polling booths are in shower stalls. Right now, the thinking is that Mr. Schwarz’s presence could affect the outcome, but how is unknown. He could rob voters from both camps, so which benefits from his presence is a cipher.

And with a more limited Democratic primary, Mr. Schwarz might cut a larger figure in a general election, should he have the money needed to run a competitive campaign.

But he could also force the other candidates to do one of two things: try to measure up more to Mr. Schwarz as a knowing, competent candidate: or move farther to the fringe, pointing to Mr. Schwarz as one more example of the kind of politician trying to steal the public’s money and rights.

The one thing professionals hope for, and are worried about, is the election will come off as an amateur hour.

John Lindstrom is publisher of Gongwer News Service. For nearly 50 years in Michigan, Gongwer News Service has provided independent, comprehensive, accurate and timely coverage of issues in and around Michigan’s government and political systems. For subscription information, including a free trial, visit Gongwer online.

Experience Still Counts

by Tim Skubick
March 5, 2010

Everything you read these days about the political climate out there is bad news for anyone who even remotely resembles a career politician.

The anger is palpable, as citizens are mad at Republicans and Democrats. End of story.

Not so fast.

In the latest TV7-Detroit Free Press survey of the governor’s race, somebody apparently forgot to tell voters about the anti-incumbent mood.

When EPIC-MRA asked voters for their choice for governor, in what they call the blind question with no information about the candidates, each one of the candidates scored low.

But then respondents were read a short bio of each candidate, and on the Democratic side each of the four contenders is, without a doubt, a full-time politician with years of experience. So you would expect their numbers would go south once voters knew who they were.

They went north instead.

House Speaker Andy Dillon moved from 17 percent to 24 percent. Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith doubled her support from 7 percent to 14 percent. Former Genesee County Treasurer Dan Kildee got a two-point bump to 14 percent, and Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero gained five points to 13 percent.

Grasp the essence of these numbers. When voters found out the extensive political background of each, they were more likely to vote for them.

Now, the pundits don’t want to declare the anti-politician/anger thing dead, because it is a wonderful story line. But the numbers don’t lie. If, indeed, the rancor was out there, the quartet running for governor would have been voted off the island.

Instead, their career-politician resumes were applauded. However, it should be noted that the numbers might have changed had there been a true non-politician in the mix.

The same phenomenon was at work on the GOP side, but the impact was not as dynamic — suggesting Democrats may be more forgiving of their career politicians than the Republicans of theirs.

The guy who benefits the most from having his bio read to survey takers is Rick “The Nerd” Snyder. At a paltry 12 percent in the blind-poll question, he jumps to 22 percent. All of that may be traceable in part to the millions of dollars he is spending on campaign commercials, so the jump is not unexpected.

West Michigan Congressman Pete Hoekstra gets a slight boost, from 27 percent to 29 percent, while Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard gets a tiny, one-point hike. The only candidate to take a hit after his bio is read is Attorney General Mike Cox, who falls from 21 percent to 18 percent after they find out who he is.

However, the outsider factor really comes into play when you look at the hardcore GOP voters. When they find out Snyder is not a career pol, he leapfrogs to first place with 31 percent of the vote.

It should also be said that the vast majority of citizens are not tuned into this race yet.

Eighty-two percent of voters have no idea who Virg Bernero is; 72 percent scratch their heads to identify Dan Kildee, which is really unusual in that his uncle Dale has been in Congress for a million years. You would expect some slopover from Dale to Dan, but that was not reflected here.

Dillon, despite a ton of state Capitol media coverage on an almost daily basis, is still unknown by 66 percent of the citizens. And despite all of his appearances on the FOX television news channel, 44 percent wonder what a Pete Hoekstra is.

All this will change, of course, when the TV commercials begin. You can hardly wait for that, right?

Tim Skubick is Michigan’s Senior Capitol correspondent and has anchored the weekly public TV series “Off the Record” since 1972. He also covers the Capitol and politics for WLNS-TV6 in Lansing.

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Virg on the Verge?
The caller was direct: I have it from a reliable source that the UAW is going to endorse the mayor of Lansing.

Wow. The “Virg” on the verge of a mondo endorsement.

Actually, the caller was a day late. On Tuesday another source sent along the same story.

That prompted a call to the man. When his recorded voice came on the line, this message was left: “I’d like to run the story that the UAW is going to endorse you. Give me a buzz.”

A short time later the return call came. “What have you heard? I have not heard anything,” the excited Virg Bernero reported.

The buzz is all over town and, of course, it is not official until it is official. But even the thought of landing such a plumb blessing is good news for Bernero, who desperately needs this to jumpstart his fundraising efforts.

The union would do him a huge favor by trotting it out now, and how ironic. At the time that Lt. Gov. John Cherry truly needed the UAW’s help late last year, the union stiffed him. And as Paul Harvey often said, “Now you know the rest of the story.”

Any Democrat would give almost anything to have the financial and grassroots support that comes with a UAW tap on the head.

But just having that, while important, does not guarantee a win.

Ask Larry Owen, who got lots of union support when he ran for the Democratic nomination for governor years ago and ended up losing the nomination to a guy named Fieger (as in Geoffrey). The UAW proceeded to stiff Fieger, and you know the rest of that story, too — John Engler wins a third term.

There are some who will see this pending endorsement as an effort to wedge another labor Democrat out of the race, namely Dan Kildee out of Genesee County. Kildee and others buy into the theory that he and Bernero would divide up the mainstream Democratic vote, and the Blue Dog and more conservative labor folks would hightail it to Andy Dillon, thus handing him the nomination.

Kildee is not about to be scared off by one endorsement, but he did concede the other day that if Bernero gets it, “It does change things.”

Oh yeah. It sure do. (sic)

Finger on the Trigger
He has cocked the gun, but not pulled the trigger. Yet this is the closest Joe Schwarz has come to running for governor as an independent candidate.

When we last visited the former state senator/GOP congressman, he was in the midst of deciding what to do about this bid as the state on Sunday watched the U.S. lose in O.T. to the folks north of us.

“I’m inclined to run,” he revealed on Monday morning and, lo and behold, by Tuesday afternoon he cocked the gun by forming an exploratory committee. He won’t actually pull the trigger unless the exploration produces money, supporters and his guts to take a risk…all of these are unanswered questions at this read.

Yet a possible independent bid for governor has the town talking. Schwarz actually followed the advice of what passes as his kitchen cabinet. A majority of them told him, “You’ll never know unless you try.”

A Schwarz candidacy potentially hurts Democrat Andy Dillon and Republican Pete Hoekstra the most.

Schwarz no longer considers himself a Republican because he is way too moderate for those who own the party. He’s out of step with Right to Life; he’s willing to work with Democrats to get things done, which puts him at odds with the Tea Party crowd, which loathes any compromising of their principles; and he’s open to a tax hike if elected.

In other words, Schwarz has appeal to the sensible center of both the GOP and Democratic parties, who are the very same voters both Hoekstra and Dillon need to win their party nominations.

Schwarz has seen recent “fresh data” suggesting he would siphon more votes from his former party while at the same time attracting some Democrats, too. That’s why he has a shot, albeit a long shot, at winning this thing.

He says the time has never been better for an independent party candidate to tap into an electorate that is fed up with incumbents and career politicians. Dr. Schwarz is a career politician, but maybe with the “I” for independent after his name, voters will not automatically rule him out.

Dillon’s Bouncy Launch
He looks the part, but his campaign does not…at least not yet.

Democratic candidate for governor Andy Dillon does look like a governor. All he needs is the votes to be one.

However, his campaign for governor that’s designed to deliver those votes is not exactly hitting on all eight cylinders…more like four.

Dillon needed to make a good impression in Lansing, where the political press corps thrives on politics and is capable of picking apart even the smallest flub. He might get away with this stuff in Grand Rapids or even in Detroit, but the Lansing visit should have been a flawless performance.

It was not.

His news conference was scheduled for 11 a.m. The appointed hour came and went as the press secretary told everyone it would be 11:15 instead. No sweat there. Former Gov. Jim Blanchard was always late, but he had the job. Dillon was auditioning for it. Huge difference.

At around 11:20 or so, still no Dillon, and his worker bees finally showed up with the sound system and the big Dillon for Michigan backdrop. They scrambled to get it all set up. Good thing the star was late.

“He’s in the building,” a flustered yet relieved media secretary Ken Coleman was able to tell all the scribes.

But instead of heading to the news conference, Dillon took a side trip to a meeting of business executives who happened to be in the building at the same time.
He dropped in to say hi, said he was running for governor and left for the news conference. It was now approaching 11:40.

En route a local reporter stopped him in the hallway. A seasoned campaign machine would have told her politely to get lost and go upstairs with the other reporters. But Team Dillon just stood there with the clock ticking off even more time while she asked some inane questions about something or other.

Finally, after five minutes or so, Coleman intervened: “Last question.”

Dillon, now some 45 minutes tardy, made his way to the news conference.

Asked afterwards about the delay, Dillon said the 11 a.m. time was when the media were supposed to be in place. Nobody said that before, and Dillon protested that he had been on time.

Close but no cigar.

Symbolism is everything in politics. His Lansing launch was not very pretty, and some of his inside circle knew it.

Dillon has time, despite this pratfall, to whip these folks into shape. If he doesn’t, he can forget about being late like Gov. Blanchard.

Call the Doctor

by Jack Lessenberry
March 5, 2010

As a young doctor working in Laos during the Vietnam war, Joe Schwarz spent a fair amount of time saving people in impossible situations.

“One weekend I took off six legs of tribesmen who had stepped on land mines laid by the Pathet Lao and Vietnamese. And most of these people were not combatants — they were village people. They would go out to check the dry rice or poppies and step on a land mine. Then they’d lay there for two or three days till someone could get the word out to Air America, and they’d send a chopper and bring them to our place.”

Dr. Schwarz was on track to becoming Battle Creek’s best-known ear, nose and throat specialist, but he also had taken a year of general surgery, and made do. He took off legs, delivered babies, did whatever else he could to show that Americans were decent people.

He served a hitch with the Navy, then spent more time there with the Central Intelligence Agency. When he came back to Michigan, he built two careers, in medicine and politics.

Today, he’s trying to decide whether to take on one of the toughest cases of all — his home state of Michigan, which has not only the worst unemployment rate in the nation, but also what he cheerfully characterizes as a “fractured, screwed-up, term-limited, irrational, quasi-logical, and absurdly dysfunctional political culture.”

What he is thinking hard about is running for governor as an independent, something that would require collecting 30,000 signatures. He is forming an exploratory committee to test the waters. Now 72, he says he’d serve a single term to try to get the state back on some sort of rational track.

Winning election as an independent would be a daunting task. Then again, anyone who spent a few years voluntarily dodging land mines and bullets in Vietnam and Laos is used to daunting tasks.

Once upon a time, John Joseph Henry Schwarz would have been seen as a dream candidate by the GOP, the party that was his natural home. He was Battle Creek’s mayor, then became a champion of higher education during 16 years as a staunch Republican in the state Senate. He masterminded John McCain’s upset primary victory in Michigan in 2000; ran for the GOP nomination for governor; served a term in Congress.

He is a defense hawk and tough on government waste. But when he ran for re-election in 2006, he was targeted as a “liberal” by the right-wing Club for Growth. In the end, he lost the primary to a former Bible salesman. Twenty years ago, that would have been beyond imagining. But despite experience and credentials, Schwarz is largely unacceptable to those who now run the GOP.

Why? For one thing, he believes abortion should be “safe, legal and rare.” He strongly supports stem-cell research and thinks “in the United States of America, people should have a right to health care.”

And he believes that it is better in a crisis to raise taxes than to destroy the infrastructure of a state. “Especially the universities. You don’t tear down something you have worked so hard to build.”

Yet, increasingly, that’s not how Republicans see things. But he isn’t at home with the Democrats, either. “I am sort of a center-right guy, and the parties have gotten so polarized that I think maybe 40 percent of voters don’t feel they have a home in either one anymore.” Polls show some evidence that he is right. If he could win 40 percent of the vote, he could indeed be elected governor as an independent. That might not be as revolutionary as it sounds. In recent years, other states have elected independent governors, including Maine, and most famously, Jesse Ventura in Minnesota.

But could that happen in Michigan? The governor’s race is open, and both parties have strong fields of contenders.

Republicans are favored, if only because of the unpopularity of Gov. Jennifer Granholm, a Democrat. But that could change — and polls show the GOP-controlled state Senate is even more unpopular.

Schwarz may face another hurdle. Maverick candidates are often charismatic campaigners who later flop at governing. The good doctor was actually a master of legislative coalition building and compromise, though not without a few yelling matches. But he has never been a very effective campaigner. He’s not a spellbinding orator, doesn’t promise things he can’t deliver, and doesn’t suffer fools as gladly as other politicians feel they must.

“I believe an experienced independent could be an asset this year,” he told me, and maybe even win if the voters are in the mood for common sense. But then he added, cheerfully, “what the hell do I know?”

Veteran journalist and national Emmy Award winner Jack Lessenberry teaches at Wayne State University, serves as Michigan Radio’s senior political analyst and writes regularly for several publications. He also serves as The Toledo Blade’s writing coach and ombudsman and is host of the weekly television show Deadline Now on WGTE-TV in Toledo.

Tea Party Hijackers

by Tim Skubick
February 19, 2010

America, they say, is a red and blue country divided between Democrats and Republicans. Now there is unfolding a civil war within the Grand Ole Party that threatens to marginalize the GOP.

Even though the re-election bid of U.S. Senator John McCain out in Arizona appears to have little to do with politics around these parts, think again. The impact could be huge.

The Tea Party crowd out west has teamed up with conservative radio talk show host J.D. Hayworth, and between the two of them they are attacking McCain for not being conservative enough.

In fact, McCain is “an incumbent who calls himself a maverick but in fact is a moderate” who is “teaming with Democrats on key issues,” intones Mr. Hayworth, who is running against McCain in the GOP primary — and could win.

What is this country coming to…a lawmaker has the audacity to be moderate and team with the other party to get things done in Washington?

Here’s the dirty little secret the Tea Party gang has apparently missed: the vast majority of residents in red and blue states actually want the pols from both parties to cooperate. Imagine that!

Poor Sarah Palin. When not writing notes to herself, she is taking Tea Party lumps for working to elect her old running mate.

Are you listening Michigan Republicans?

There is a Tea Party movement in this state, too, and who knows what incumbent they may take on for being too “moderate” and “teaming” with the other side?

State GOP Chair Ron Weiser late last month was rather sanguine about the Tea Party stuff, suggesting it was not an “organized movement that e-mails each other back and forth.”

Asked if it was OK for them to go after McCain, he advised: “They can go after whoever they want.” But, he added, “I don’t think John McCain has any different view than they do.” Obviously, Weiser, back then, was clueless, because he also noted that he didn’t think the T.P. gang was focused on booting McCain out of office.

Mr. Weiser concluded that the movement here “is not going to affect our elections in Michigan.” So much for that.

But what if the Michigan party bigwigs show up at a convention with a slate of candidates for statewide offices and the Tea Party folks find them to be too “moderate” and too willing to “team” with the other side?

Or what if they go after incumbent legislative Republicans who have demonstrated the same malady?

Will Weiser and company sit back and let the minority take over or will he stand up and confront them, thus producing an ugly headline: Mainstream GOP Hijacked by Tea Party Fringe?

Please recall such an incendiary battle years ago when the Pat Robertson for President gaggle refused to make nice with the Michigan GOP leadership who wanted George H. Bush for president. The Rev’s followers argued Bush was not conservative enough for them. Sound familiar?

If it happened once, surely it could happen again. And a divided GOP going into the fall elections is an answer to a prayer from Michigan Democrats, who desperately need a little political manna from somewhere this election cycle.

Tim Skubick is Michigan’s Senior Capitol correspondent and has anchored the weekly public TV series “Off the Record” since 1972. He also covers the Capitol and politics for WLNS-TV6 in Lansing.

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Generation Gap on Nerds
What is a nerd and how do we feel about them? The answers are decidedly different depending on your age.

The 9th grader was sitting at the kitchen table the other night working on geography, and the question was, during a study break, how are nerds viewed in your school?

Without missing a beat, she noted, “They are smart and liked by other kids.”

Wow. If you are over 40-something, that is not the description you would have used.

They were socially out of it. Certainly not a member of the in-clique, which frowned on glasses held together by duct tape, a slide rule hanging down and countless pens protruding from the shirt pocket.

Of course, this generational revelation is important in the context of the Nerd ads that Rick Snyder is imposing on every TV viewer in the state…at least he hopes everyone.

He is in desperate need to up his name ID, so the Ann Arbor business guy has taken a calculated risk by calling himself a nerd for governor — and with the younger set it will probably work.

That’s because they aspire to be rich like other nerds such as Warren Buffet and Bill Gates. Being rich and being nerdy go hand in glove with the younger set, and so the ad works.

However, research indicates that young people don’t vote. Oh sure, they showed up in astounding numbers for Barack Obama, but then they retreated to their ipods and text messaging thing-a-ma-bobs.

In strong contrast, the older folks, who don’t cotton to nerds, vote in larger numbers and may not want a nerdy governor.

It’s a roll of the dice, with Snyder thinking perhaps he can rekindle the Obama generation and get them to the polls in August when most of them will be on the beach soaking up some rays.

Snyder wins with Obama voters…in a GOP primary? Wow, somebody pass the duct tape.

Let’s Raise More Money
Are we truly our brothers and sisters keepers?

The governor showed up to present her new budget, which includes another $500 million in budget cuts, a doctor’s tax, and a sales tax on services.

She explained that her budget was revenue neutral, which is just another way of saying there are no general tax increases in there.

While that is the politically proper stance to take during an election year, believe it or not there were some Democrats who did not like the revenue neutral suggestion.

“If I had my way, I’d raise $1.2 billion,” opined Rep. George Cushingberry from Detroit, who chairs the mighty important House Appropriations Committee. Having said that, he confesses he is not going to get his way because legislative Republicans want no part of anything that even smells like a tax hike.

You’ve heard the GOP mantra, “This is not the time to increase taxes on folks who are struggling.” Of course, for the GOP it is never a good time to raise taxes on anyone (but we digress).

Well, it turns out there was another Detroit Democrat who wants to tax her very own constituents because, she claims, it is the right thing to do.

With the governor 30 feet away and listening intently, Rep. Shanelle Jackson lectured her governor that the “revenue neutral” idea was a bad idea. In fact, she reported that her neighbors are telling her, “We are willing to give a little more if the folks next door can continue to eat or save their home from foreclosure or get into a better job training program.”

“I want more revenue,” she advised the governor, who never responded to the plea.

Betya when the governor meets privately with the Legislative Black Caucus, she’ll get another earful on this more-money demand.

At least somebody is talking the talk and walking the walk about taking care of brothers and sisters who are in dire need.

What’s the old saying, “If not for the grace of God, go I?”

Blood on the Campaign Trail

by John Lindstrom
Gongwer News Service
February 19, 2010

On Saturday, February 13, when they should have been otherwise engaged in buying flowers and candy for Valentine’s Day, friends and associates of former Governor James Blanchard started getting text messages telling them that Bob Bowman had decided not to seek the Democratic nomination for governor. It was hardly the token of love many Democrats had hoped for.

Meanwhile, Republicans have already begun violating Ronald Reagan’s 11th Commandment of partisan brotherly love, to the point that gubernatorial candidates are already calling in the cops (so to say) to try and arrest the campaign trash talk.

Ahhh, the days are growing longer, spring is coming and there’s romance in the air. Well, actually, that fragrance detectable in the atmosphere is not the roseate perfume of love, but the musky, heady, sweaty odor of electoral politics.

Anyone who has paid the least attention to politics in the last, oh, two decades (three decades? Four? Wait, when was Woodrow Wilson president?) knew this scenario would happen. And, it’s happening right on schedule. In fact, given recent political trends, it could be argued it’s happening a little late.

The first blood was drawn in this election some time ago, at least at the beginning of January when Lt. Governor John Cherry Jr. stunned everyone by pulling out of the gubernatorial race. Since that moment the dynamics at the gubernatorial political level have changed and driven down two different tracks.

First the Democrats: their struggle is to figure out who will be their field of candidates. Since Mr. Cherry abandoned the struggle, the only definite new candidate is Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero. House Speaker Andy Dillon (D-Redford Twp.) has created an exploratory committee and, according to a variety of sources, is telling party officials that he is close to already raising $1 million and is readying a campaign structure. Should be good, right? Take those two along with Rep. Alma Wheeler-Smith (D-Salem Twp.) and the Dems should be all set for a hearty partisan donnybrook, right?

No. Top Democrats are bereft at the thought of a Dillon/Bernero (okay, and Smith) lineup. No kidding, they are sweating through their five-day deodorant pads at the thought.

Mr. Dillon has isolated most of organized labor, and the liberal Democrats are furious at him for his disastrous budget deal with Republicans. Mr. Bernero has energy, drive, passion (okay so far), maybe a little too much populism for the general electorate (that could be dealt with), but he has, well, Shakespeare said it best: “I would that my horse had the speed of your tongue.” Democrats worry that they won’t have enough bandages to staunch Mr. Bernero’s bleeding feet if he shoots them as often as they fear he will.

So Democrats had crossed their fingers and hoped great hopes that someone else (and, if possible, someone with money, because the state’s campaign matching fund is effectively broke) would come into the race. Someone without heavy political baggage that would weigh them down in the campaign.

Denise Ilitch was one big hope, but she decided there wasn’t enough time to mount an effective campaign.

Then they hoped Mr. Bowman, the former state treasurer and current online umpire of Major League Baseball, would take up the colors and run. When he filed a campaign committee, because he had spent money coming into the state to court interest, one might have thought there had been an Elvis sighting with all the excitement.

But then the text messages started coming on Saturday, followed by a surprise public statement issued Monday morning. Mr. Bowman has not said publicly why he decided not to run. There is talk that he may become the next baseball commissioner, but the most likely reason now is that relocating his family from Connecticut, so he could erase the part-time resident status critics would hang on him, was too difficult.

(And while top Democrats had hoped either Ms. Ilitch or Mr. Bowman would have run, substantial whispering campaigns had already begun. Ms. Ilitch, some said, was “an empty dress.” Mr. Bowman not only wasn’t a full-time resident, he was the guy that brought you that, albeit temporary, 38-percent tax increase in 1983).

So now, officials wait and hope that former Genesee Country Treasurer Dan Kildee will get into the game. Mr. Kildee talks like a candidate, with requisite caution. He has government and campaign experience, labor likes him, Genesee County likes him (no small thing in a Democratic primary). What he does not have is money. He also has the added disadvantage of having just started a new think tank on community development that he spent years developing. He has already made it clear that if running for governor means folding the think tank, then somebody else can run for the state ranch house on Lansing’s Oxford Street.

So the leftover Valentine’s candy Democrats are crunching on is their fingernails as they wait to see what their final lineup will be. In that, they are sharing their diet with Republicans who are suddenly all atwitter over the growing nastiness of their race.

This too had been expected with Mr. Cherry’s drop-out. Republicans were hoping they could still spend some time hammering Mr. Cherry as the successor to Governor Jennifer Granholm, but his departure meant the GOP candidates for governor now had to focus on each other to build support and win votes.

Since the candidates — Attorney General Mike Cox, Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, U.S. Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-Holland), Ann Arbor business exec Rick Snyder and Sen. Tom George (R-Kalamazoo) — agree on the broad perspectives of their campaign policies, they have separated themselves elsewise.

Politicians tend to believe that just flashing a winning smile is no longer enough to guarantee victory. When dentistry doesn’t work, turn to butchery. So already the knives are out, and it has gotten to the point where Mr. Hoekstra has called on Mr. Cox to investigate the legality of a shadow company’s ads against him. Mr. Bouchard has likewise raised complaints about ads against him from a group that also targeted Mr. Snyder.

Mr. Snyder’s campaign has alleged that Mr. Cox’s supporters are behind the attacks, which Mr. Cox’s spokespersons have denied.

For his own part, Mr. Snyder has criticized all his opponents in his TV ad calling himself a nerd. In it, he trumpets his detailed Michigan recovery plan and doubts a politician could understand it (no offense to Mr. Snyder, but the plan ain’t that hard to follow).

Publicly, Republicans hope the bloodbath is short-lived and everyone will be passing the chocolates soon as the state sits back for a polite, pleasant partisan parley on policy. Privately, they know the chopping and hacking will only get worse.

This, for the time being, creates a tactical problem for them: while the Democrats are still trying to put together their lineup, no Democrat is publicly attacking the other potential candidates. The longer the Republicans have the bloody field to themselves, the more they worry they both provide the Democrats fodder for the November race and run themselves so ragged they make their candidates unattractive.

Can you feel the love? No? Imagine that. Well, St. Patrick’s Day is coming up; maybe the candidates are showing their Irish early.

John Lindstrom is publisher of Gongwer News Service. For nearly 50 years in Michigan, Gongwer News Service has provided independent, comprehensive, accurate and timely coverage of issues in and around Michigan’s government and political systems. For subscription information, including a free trial, visit Gongwer online.