Extremist Talk and Blithering Outrage

by John Lindstrom
Gongwer News Service
April 2, 2010

What is the etiquette when one is in the dentist’s chair and the dentist is peering down one’s gullet, impervious and intimidating behind the mask, various sharp tools in hand, all the while muttering about “Obamacare taking over everything…won’t have insurance this time next year…socialists everywhere, socialists taking over the country…guess the firing squads will be next…remember Castro? When he took over, 500 of them lined up in front of a ditch and machine-gunned down…guess won’t be too much longer before we get that.”

Does one take that moment to say, “Oh don’t be daft?” Or considering the nearness of sharp tools to soft tissue, merely mutter a non-committal grunt?

The ongoing anguish following passage of the national health care law continues, and it is maddening and amusing and infuriating all at once. On Facebook the fulminating from opponents, including Michigan legislators, parried and countered by the righteous sniggering of supporters, always provides a good excuse to enjoy a stiffening beverage.

Rep. Dave Agema (R-Grandville), for example, has in various Facebook posts called congressional and administration Democrats crooks, said the health care law will trigger a double-dip recession, and castigated news reporting on the bill, saying he felt like he was in Russia and reading Pravda. Compared to other comments from others with apparently higher blood pressures, Mr. Agema is a courtly gentleman.

Add to all this the arrests of the Hutaree crew down in Lenawee and Hillsdale counties, however, and the ongoing anguish is a bit worrying.

Now the Hutaree hysterics are a different breed of nutcase altogether, aiming, as is alleged, to do their bit to precipitate the end days by starting a war on police, presuming the successful slaughter of cops will inspire the mass to take up arms against government and, what…release the pure red heifer? Raise up the temple walls? Hear the trumpet sound across the heavens? (Who teaches these guys their strategy anyway? And does the scripture “I shall come as a thief in the night” mean nothing to these endtiming ijits? And on a purely parochial complaint, hows come these guys get busted and everyone remembers the Michigan Militia and the Nichols boys and says Michigan should make anti-government wackiness a growth industry? Timothy McVeigh hailed from the otherwise charming town of Lockport, New York; why not locate a fruitcake stand there? And Idaho, remember Justus Township, remember the Unabomber…oh cripes, he went to UM. Never mind.)

But with phoned threats to members of Congress, and gas lines being cut at homes, and bricks flying through the Livingston County Republican office, and the utterly bizarre suggestion that large numbers of Americans consider President Barack Obama the anti-christ, one could be excused for nervously wondering if the arrest of the Hutaree howlies could inspire a less balanced critic to see the passage of health care as the sign to start the tribulation.

Extremist talk and blithering outrage are part of our national heritage. After all, John Adams’ campaign warned that if Thomas Jefferson were elected president in 1800, old men’s heads would be raised on pikes and women would be raped in the streets with impunity.

No party is exempt from pronouncing outrage. The same Republicans and conservatives who today scream about socialist takeovers and holding sales on brownshirts were just a few years ago howling treason at Democrats and liberals who opposed the war in Iraq and called then President George W. Bush a fascist. (Note to both: talk to somebody who lived either in a socialist or fascist country, and that person will likely say you are out of your mind when you say the U.S. is going either way.)

Even within factions, levels of outrage exist and turn on each other. Why does U.S. Sen. John McCain (R-Arizona) have to worry about a tea-party upstart in his home state? What angers campaign aides for Attorney General Mike Cox when fellow Republican gubernatorial candidate Rick Snyder (who has called for repeal of the health care law) suggests Mr. Cox shouldn’t spend the state’s money on a lawsuit challenging the measure? What in the so-far more aggressively rightist campaign of Rep. Justin Amash (R-Kentwood) worries supporters of U.S. Rep. Vern Ehlers (R-Grand Rapids) whose favored candidate to succeed him is the unshakeable conservative Sen. Bill Hardiman (R-Kentwood)?

Even so, there’s nothing to worry about in the end, right? We are all letting off various levels of steam as we have for years and years and years, so there is nothing to worry about, right? We’re all on the same team in the end, and we will all pull together and we’re just loosening our collars and stretching our tonsils, right?

We can hope so. Yet the growing inability to civilly disagree, to even engage in argument without reducing the dialogue to playground semantics, and to be unwilling to consider opposing points and look at broader context is both depressing and worrying.

There was a time when it was our civic duty to at least hear the other guy out, as anyone old enough to remember Jack Kirkpatrick and Shana Alexander on 60 Minutes can attest. They each made their argument. Nobody talked over the other. Viewers favored one or the other, but they at least understood that they needed to listen.

But technology and its ability to segment and control idealistic markets, combined with political tactics and strategies aimed at isolating and controlling message, make the ability to reasonably argue and civilly disagree harder and harder.

Politics is rapidly devolving to an uncorked bar fight, and once punches get thrown worse things can happen. The western democracies, be they in the Americas, Europe, Asia, Oceania or Africa, exist on the concept of civil disagreement, on mutual respect even in disagreement.

There are countries where the worst is expected and treated as just the daily fare of political business. For example, in 2008 two Nigerian journalists were interviewing then Michigan Republican chair Saul Anuzis about the upcoming election.

Will this be an intense campaign, they asked Mr. Anuzis. He nodded his head, and said, yes, this should be a very intense campaign, and it will be very intense in Michigan.

The Nigerians nodded in understanding, and then asked completely innocently: and how many people do you expect to be killed during the campaign? Mr. Anuzis nearly fell out of his chair in astonishment. It was an absurd question, here, but clearly not in Nigeria.

Practicing moderate extremism, tolerant outrage, friendly fulminations, topped off with a communal brew, is a virtue we should all remember.

Recall that from the wild excesses of the 1800 campaign, Adams and Jefferson again became stalwart, passionate friends and the nation was better for it. And that is something to sink one’s teeth into.

John Lindstrom is publisher of Gongwer News Service. For nearly 50 years in Michigan, Gongwer News Service has provided independent, comprehensive, accurate and timely coverage of issues in and around Michigan’s government and political systems. For subscription information, including a free trial, visit Gongwer online.

What a Difference a Year Makes

by Tom Shields
March 19, 2010

Just a year ago, the pundits had the Republican Party on the verge of extinction. Time Magazine said, “Republicans have the desperate aura of an endangered species,” and speculated that they could sink to the level of a third party in a two-party system.

John Cherry looked like a prohibitive favorite for the Dems’ pick for governor, and the Senate Democrats were measuring Mike Bishop’s office for drapes.

What a difference a year makes.

Republican governors in Obama states like Virginia and New Jersey. A Republican senator from Massachusetts and here in Michigan, a landslide state Senate victory by Mike Nofs in a seat won by Obama and considered a safe bet for the Democrats in 2010.

As we enter the engagement period of the 2010 election cycle, the polls and pundits are all predicting a GOP year for Michigan and the nation. Our polls have seen a swing of almost 20 percentage points toward Republicans when asking Michigan voters which party does a better job of running state government (from -8 percent to +9 percent).

Many people who voted for change in 2008 did not get the change they were looking for in 2009. The voters are clearly supporting candidates who promise less government. The unorganized Tea Party movement is held together by its common opposition to increased government spending and higher taxes — issues that align them with the Republicans in 2010.

And though we are four months out from the primary and seven months out from the general election, each party’s candidate field for governor of Michigan seems to be almost set. Now seems to be as good a time as ever to handicap the race for the Governor’s Office.

Democrat Primary
The shift in the political winds has swept the best candidates out of the Democrat race for governor. After John Cherry, Bob Bowman and Denise Ilitch decided that 2010 wasn’t going to be their year, the Democrat Party is left with three candidates who, collectively, probably do not have 50 percent name I.D. or enough money in the bank to cover Rick Snyder’s monthly consultant bills. Our polls show “Don’t Know” clearly leading the field with 64 percent, followed by Dillon (18 percent), Bernero (9 percent) and Smith (7 percent).

One year ago, Andy Dillon was the one candidate for governor who Republicans did not want to face. They may get their wish as Dillon finds himself in political primary purgatory. He’s too liberal for the conservatives and too conservative for the Democrat Party hierarchy. His endorsement from the building trades will help soothe some fears from some Dems, but his pro-life beliefs and his legislation to control the health care benefits of public employees has already cost him support from the AFL-CIO and puts him on a crash course with pro-choice Democrats and the MEA.

Of course, the candidate benefiting from all this is Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero. Bernero is the true accidental candidate whose stock has risen as all the other candidates dropped out of the race. The ultimate political opportunist, Bernero seems to be benefiting from the mere fact that he’s not Andy Dillon. Though he’s down in the early polls, if he can cobble together support from the liberals, pro-choice women, the unions and urban voters, he could be tough to beat in the August primary.

It appears that the only way Alma Wheeler Smith is going to get some respect for her candidacy is by recruiting Aretha Franklin as one of her co-chairs. With little money and a small base of support, she is destined to play third fiddle in the Democrat primary.

Republican Primary
In the Republican primary, Rick Snyder, the tough rich nerd, is shaking up the field by dumping $3 million in the campaign — outspending the other three candidates by a 10 to 1 margin.

Our most recent poll shows this turning into a three-way race with Hoekstra (21 percent), Cox (21 percent) and Snyder (20 percent) in a dead heat, and Mike Bouchard stuck at 10 percent.

The shortage of funds in the state’s matching fund pool could have a significant impact in the Republican primary as the other three candidates struggle to match Snyder’s bankroll. If Snyder continues at this pace, he could spend $8 to $10 million in the primary — more than double what his three opponents will spend combined.

One of the key developments to watch will be the endorsement of Right-to-Life. Snyder doesn’t meet RTL endorsement criteria, and if they weigh into the primary, one of the other three candidates could be propelled to front-runner status.

While Snyder’s media blitz has him moving up in the polls, it appears that west Michigan voters aren’t ready to embrace the nerd and are sticking with Congressman Pete Hoekstra. The candidate with the smallest war chest has the strongest base of local support. Hoekstra needs to raise the funds to defend his base and expand it to win the primary. But for now, Hoekstra sits on his west Michigan perch, until someone knocks him off.

One candidate trying to do just that is Attorney General Mike Cox. While Cox and Hoekstra have been neck and neck in the polls for the past year, Snyder’s media buy seems to have cut into Cox’s support the most. But Cox has stockpiled some cash, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him the next one out of the gate to run some advertising to keep pace. With money, political savvy, statewide name I.D. and Asian Carp, expect Cox to be in the thick of things in August.

Three million dollars and a cute ad campaign have bought Ann Arbor businessman Rick Snyder about 50-percent name ID and some early support. But it remains to be seen if the “tough nerd” campaign can hold the momentum for the long haul. Historically, wealthy business candidates like Dick Chrysler and Jim Nicholson have jumped out to early leads by spending early money — only to fade in the end. Snyder must put a little more meat on those nerdy bones to withstand the attacks that are sure to come in June and July.

The most puzzling campaign for the Republican nomination is the campaign team of Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard and Secretary of State Terri Land. Both candidates have won statewide Republican primaries but have not yet clicked as the east/west team. Running fourth in the early polls may help them stay out of the line of fire when the real mud starts flying, but they need to come up with something to break out of the cellar and into the pack.

While it’s still early, primary money tends to flow to the front-runners. A candidate can lose in the early months and still be the first across the finish line in August, as long as the candidate keeps in position to win.

General Election
With 12 different potential match-ups for the general election, we don’t have room here to speculate on each race. But our polling shows each of the Republican candidates beating each of the Democrats by margins of 15 percent to 22 percent. The mood of the electorate and the general quality of the candidates certainly favor the Republicans in November.

The potential entry of former Republican Congressman Joe Schwarz as an Independent candidate could muck up the race. Our polling shows him pulling just 14 percent of the vote, with 8 percent coming from the Republican candidate and 5 percent from the Democrat candidate. In a close race, he could be the difference. But right now, it’s anything but close.

If I were a bookmaker, here are the early odds I’d give each candidate. But I’d wait until the first of August or November to place your bets.

GOP Nomination:
Hoekstra: 2-1
Cox: 2-1
Snyder: 3-1
Bouchard: 5-1

DEM Nomination
Dillon: 2-1
Bernero: 5-2
Smith: 15-1

General Election
GOP Nominee: 2-3
DEM Nominee: 3-1
Independent: 25-1

Tom Shields is founder and president of Marketing Resource Group (MRG), a Lansing-based political marketing and public relations firm.

Can the Candidates
Do the Job?

by John Lindstrom
Gongwer News Service
March 5, 2010

Herewith a point of argument that includes a prediction: if the professionals involved in government — that is, the people who work in and around state government, be they bureaucrats, lobbyists, policy analysts, reporters and others — were the only ones who could vote in the 2010 gubernatorial election, Michigan’s next governor would be John “Joe” Schwarz.

In fact, it is arguable that if those persons were the only ones who could vote in the election, Mr. Schwarz, former state senator, former member of Congress, former Republican candidate for governor, would win in a walk.

And in light of the surprising announcement Thursday night that former Genesee County Treasurer Dan Kildee was dropping out of the Democratic race barely more than a week after he got in, that prediction seems even more…predictable.

That prediction is not a knock, well not a hard knock, against any of the other remaining candidates running for governor: Republicans Attorney General Mike Cox, Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, U.S. Rep. Pete Hoekstra, Ann Arbor business executive Rick Snyder and Sen. Tom George (R-Kalamazoo) or Democrats House Speaker Andy Dillon (D-Redford Twp.), Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero and Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith (D-Salem Twp.).

But it is an expression of the frustration the professionals in government have endured, and the hope they have that whoever is elected governor in November knows what the hell he or she has to do and, even more importantly, how to get it done.

The field for governor should be set now. Others could still get in the race (and with Mr. Kildee’s exit some top Democrats might hope another name could emerge), but after the angst of the last several months that seems unlikely.

In the past two weeks there have been about a half-dozen major developments in the race: Mr. Kildee got in for the Democrats (to the relief of top Democrats worried about a Bernero/Dillon race), Mr. Dillon confirmed he was running, Mr. Dillon showed strength in new polls and so did Mr. Hoekstra and Mr. Snyder, and then to the surprise and some anguish of Democrats, Mr. Kildee got out.

The other development: Mr. Schwarz formed an exploratory committee for governor, to run as neither a Republican nor a Democrat. Until Mr. Kildee’s departure, Mr. Schwarz’s decision was probably the biggest surprise. Mr. Schwarz had been seen wavering on a possible independent bid. Earlier in the year he had said he was about 70 percent certain to run. By last week that had fallen to 50 percent certainty.

So his decision to establish an exploratory committee came as water in the desert for some people. There are lots of professionals eager to help his campaign, should Mr. Schwarz decide to run (which he has not yet).

Politics, and by extension government, is one of the few areas where professionalism is scorned by the public. Nobody wants his or her heart surgery performed by an amateur surgeon; nobody wants someone whose flying experience is limited to model airplanes piloting a 747 across the Atlantic; nobody wants a baker who has only made cookies with a Kenner Easy-Bake oven whipping up the daughter’s wedding cake; but nobody wants professional politicians trying to make government work. (Check out the reception Christopher Reeve’s character enjoyed when he defended professional negotiators in the film The Remains Of The Day, one of the few times the arts pay any tribute to the skill running a government can require.)

Yes, in a democratic republic we are all politicians because we are the government, and it is important to ensure that the viewpoints of all are included in the governing process. But there also have to be people who know how the law works, what the processes are, how to balance the books, how to make sure the cops show up when called and the inspectors find the nasty bugs whipped up in the peanut butter.

Talk to the people involved in government and it is striking how unenthusiastic they are about the candidates running for governor. They are not critical of each person’s intelligence. They worry somewhat about their different viewpoints, but they also know that whether from the right or the left, the person in charge tends to moderate, so eventually the new governor will lead more from the middle of the bird than from one of the wings.

But what the professionals worry about is: can any of these guys do the job? Can they figure out how to break down the partisan barriers that block so many things from taking effect? Can that person work efficiently — in other words, when he or she makes a pronouncement, will the bills or executive orders be ready to go in short order and not months? Can that person set an agenda and, as much as anyone can in a leadership position, stick to it? Can that person manage the different and sometimes competing elements of government so that the state advances by whatever measure one uses to determine advancement?

And can that person knock heads together when needed and still keep people talking to each other so resolutions are reached?

The fact that so many professionals, before Mr. Schwarz got in and Mr. Kildee got out, were interested in either Mr. Snyder or Mr. Kildee for governor should tell one something, at least about the other candidates. Mr. Snyder is backed by buckets of top business executives, who see him as a moderating influence outside of the bloodletting that goes on in government. Similarly, Mr. Kildee was seen as having effective governing cred that could have played well to the Democratic interest groups. But Mr. Kildee’s departure leaves the large middle ground of Michigan voters to consider Mr. Snyder. But Mr. Snyder is also a largely unknown quantity. The question remains, can he do the job?

Mr. Schwarz is a known quantity. He has become an independent because he disagrees with the direction (whichever direction that is) the Republican Party is heading. But he refuses to become a Democrat (in fact, Democrats tried hard to get him to switch parties and he declined). If Republicans now label themselves Reagan Republicans, Mr. Schwarz is a Lincoln Republican, a Teddy Roosevelt Republican, an Eisenhower and Rockefeller and Vandenberg and Milliken Republican. In other words, he is the kind of Republican many Republicans now reject by simply saying, “They weren’t conservatives.” (Maybe not, but boy could they govern.)

Nobody among the professionals has any doubt that Mr. Schwarz could do the job. Which is exactly why if the election were left to them, Mr. Schwarz would now profitably be measuring the drapes in the executive office for when he moves in next January.

But the election is open to all, and it is a fool’s errand to say who will win in November. The likely winner will come from one of the two parties, and right now the GOP has the edge. Everyone expects the primaries and the general election following to be so vicious that the public will feel comfortable voting only if the polling booths are in shower stalls. Right now, the thinking is that Mr. Schwarz’s presence could affect the outcome, but how is unknown. He could rob voters from both camps, so which benefits from his presence is a cipher.

And with a more limited Democratic primary, Mr. Schwarz might cut a larger figure in a general election, should he have the money needed to run a competitive campaign.

But he could also force the other candidates to do one of two things: try to measure up more to Mr. Schwarz as a knowing, competent candidate: or move farther to the fringe, pointing to Mr. Schwarz as one more example of the kind of politician trying to steal the public’s money and rights.

The one thing professionals hope for, and are worried about, is the election will come off as an amateur hour.

John Lindstrom is publisher of Gongwer News Service. For nearly 50 years in Michigan, Gongwer News Service has provided independent, comprehensive, accurate and timely coverage of issues in and around Michigan’s government and political systems. For subscription information, including a free trial, visit Gongwer online.

Experience Still Counts

by Tim Skubick
March 5, 2010

Everything you read these days about the political climate out there is bad news for anyone who even remotely resembles a career politician.

The anger is palpable, as citizens are mad at Republicans and Democrats. End of story.

Not so fast.

In the latest TV7-Detroit Free Press survey of the governor’s race, somebody apparently forgot to tell voters about the anti-incumbent mood.

When EPIC-MRA asked voters for their choice for governor, in what they call the blind question with no information about the candidates, each one of the candidates scored low.

But then respondents were read a short bio of each candidate, and on the Democratic side each of the four contenders is, without a doubt, a full-time politician with years of experience. So you would expect their numbers would go south once voters knew who they were.

They went north instead.

House Speaker Andy Dillon moved from 17 percent to 24 percent. Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith doubled her support from 7 percent to 14 percent. Former Genesee County Treasurer Dan Kildee got a two-point bump to 14 percent, and Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero gained five points to 13 percent.

Grasp the essence of these numbers. When voters found out the extensive political background of each, they were more likely to vote for them.

Now, the pundits don’t want to declare the anti-politician/anger thing dead, because it is a wonderful story line. But the numbers don’t lie. If, indeed, the rancor was out there, the quartet running for governor would have been voted off the island.

Instead, their career-politician resumes were applauded. However, it should be noted that the numbers might have changed had there been a true non-politician in the mix.

The same phenomenon was at work on the GOP side, but the impact was not as dynamic — suggesting Democrats may be more forgiving of their career politicians than the Republicans of theirs.

The guy who benefits the most from having his bio read to survey takers is Rick “The Nerd” Snyder. At a paltry 12 percent in the blind-poll question, he jumps to 22 percent. All of that may be traceable in part to the millions of dollars he is spending on campaign commercials, so the jump is not unexpected.

West Michigan Congressman Pete Hoekstra gets a slight boost, from 27 percent to 29 percent, while Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard gets a tiny, one-point hike. The only candidate to take a hit after his bio is read is Attorney General Mike Cox, who falls from 21 percent to 18 percent after they find out who he is.

However, the outsider factor really comes into play when you look at the hardcore GOP voters. When they find out Snyder is not a career pol, he leapfrogs to first place with 31 percent of the vote.

It should also be said that the vast majority of citizens are not tuned into this race yet.

Eighty-two percent of voters have no idea who Virg Bernero is; 72 percent scratch their heads to identify Dan Kildee, which is really unusual in that his uncle Dale has been in Congress for a million years. You would expect some slopover from Dale to Dan, but that was not reflected here.

Dillon, despite a ton of state Capitol media coverage on an almost daily basis, is still unknown by 66 percent of the citizens. And despite all of his appearances on the FOX television news channel, 44 percent wonder what a Pete Hoekstra is.

All this will change, of course, when the TV commercials begin. You can hardly wait for that, right?

Tim Skubick is Michigan’s Senior Capitol correspondent and has anchored the weekly public TV series “Off the Record” since 1972. He also covers the Capitol and politics for WLNS-TV6 in Lansing.

Tim Skubick Extra Extra… (A weekly bonus only for Dome readers)

Virg on the Verge?
The caller was direct: I have it from a reliable source that the UAW is going to endorse the mayor of Lansing.

Wow. The “Virg” on the verge of a mondo endorsement.

Actually, the caller was a day late. On Tuesday another source sent along the same story.

That prompted a call to the man. When his recorded voice came on the line, this message was left: “I’d like to run the story that the UAW is going to endorse you. Give me a buzz.”

A short time later the return call came. “What have you heard? I have not heard anything,” the excited Virg Bernero reported.

The buzz is all over town and, of course, it is not official until it is official. But even the thought of landing such a plumb blessing is good news for Bernero, who desperately needs this to jumpstart his fundraising efforts.

The union would do him a huge favor by trotting it out now, and how ironic. At the time that Lt. Gov. John Cherry truly needed the UAW’s help late last year, the union stiffed him. And as Paul Harvey often said, “Now you know the rest of the story.”

Any Democrat would give almost anything to have the financial and grassroots support that comes with a UAW tap on the head.

But just having that, while important, does not guarantee a win.

Ask Larry Owen, who got lots of union support when he ran for the Democratic nomination for governor years ago and ended up losing the nomination to a guy named Fieger (as in Geoffrey). The UAW proceeded to stiff Fieger, and you know the rest of that story, too — John Engler wins a third term.

There are some who will see this pending endorsement as an effort to wedge another labor Democrat out of the race, namely Dan Kildee out of Genesee County. Kildee and others buy into the theory that he and Bernero would divide up the mainstream Democratic vote, and the Blue Dog and more conservative labor folks would hightail it to Andy Dillon, thus handing him the nomination.

Kildee is not about to be scared off by one endorsement, but he did concede the other day that if Bernero gets it, “It does change things.”

Oh yeah. It sure do. (sic)

Finger on the Trigger
He has cocked the gun, but not pulled the trigger. Yet this is the closest Joe Schwarz has come to running for governor as an independent candidate.

When we last visited the former state senator/GOP congressman, he was in the midst of deciding what to do about this bid as the state on Sunday watched the U.S. lose in O.T. to the folks north of us.

“I’m inclined to run,” he revealed on Monday morning and, lo and behold, by Tuesday afternoon he cocked the gun by forming an exploratory committee. He won’t actually pull the trigger unless the exploration produces money, supporters and his guts to take a risk…all of these are unanswered questions at this read.

Yet a possible independent bid for governor has the town talking. Schwarz actually followed the advice of what passes as his kitchen cabinet. A majority of them told him, “You’ll never know unless you try.”

A Schwarz candidacy potentially hurts Democrat Andy Dillon and Republican Pete Hoekstra the most.

Schwarz no longer considers himself a Republican because he is way too moderate for those who own the party. He’s out of step with Right to Life; he’s willing to work with Democrats to get things done, which puts him at odds with the Tea Party crowd, which loathes any compromising of their principles; and he’s open to a tax hike if elected.

In other words, Schwarz has appeal to the sensible center of both the GOP and Democratic parties, who are the very same voters both Hoekstra and Dillon need to win their party nominations.

Schwarz has seen recent “fresh data” suggesting he would siphon more votes from his former party while at the same time attracting some Democrats, too. That’s why he has a shot, albeit a long shot, at winning this thing.

He says the time has never been better for an independent party candidate to tap into an electorate that is fed up with incumbents and career politicians. Dr. Schwarz is a career politician, but maybe with the “I” for independent after his name, voters will not automatically rule him out.

Dillon’s Bouncy Launch
He looks the part, but his campaign does not…at least not yet.

Democratic candidate for governor Andy Dillon does look like a governor. All he needs is the votes to be one.

However, his campaign for governor that’s designed to deliver those votes is not exactly hitting on all eight cylinders…more like four.

Dillon needed to make a good impression in Lansing, where the political press corps thrives on politics and is capable of picking apart even the smallest flub. He might get away with this stuff in Grand Rapids or even in Detroit, but the Lansing visit should have been a flawless performance.

It was not.

His news conference was scheduled for 11 a.m. The appointed hour came and went as the press secretary told everyone it would be 11:15 instead. No sweat there. Former Gov. Jim Blanchard was always late, but he had the job. Dillon was auditioning for it. Huge difference.

At around 11:20 or so, still no Dillon, and his worker bees finally showed up with the sound system and the big Dillon for Michigan backdrop. They scrambled to get it all set up. Good thing the star was late.

“He’s in the building,” a flustered yet relieved media secretary Ken Coleman was able to tell all the scribes.

But instead of heading to the news conference, Dillon took a side trip to a meeting of business executives who happened to be in the building at the same time.
He dropped in to say hi, said he was running for governor and left for the news conference. It was now approaching 11:40.

En route a local reporter stopped him in the hallway. A seasoned campaign machine would have told her politely to get lost and go upstairs with the other reporters. But Team Dillon just stood there with the clock ticking off even more time while she asked some inane questions about something or other.

Finally, after five minutes or so, Coleman intervened: “Last question.”

Dillon, now some 45 minutes tardy, made his way to the news conference.

Asked afterwards about the delay, Dillon said the 11 a.m. time was when the media were supposed to be in place. Nobody said that before, and Dillon protested that he had been on time.

Close but no cigar.

Symbolism is everything in politics. His Lansing launch was not very pretty, and some of his inside circle knew it.

Dillon has time, despite this pratfall, to whip these folks into shape. If he doesn’t, he can forget about being late like Gov. Blanchard.

Call the Doctor

by Jack Lessenberry
March 5, 2010

As a young doctor working in Laos during the Vietnam war, Joe Schwarz spent a fair amount of time saving people in impossible situations.

“One weekend I took off six legs of tribesmen who had stepped on land mines laid by the Pathet Lao and Vietnamese. And most of these people were not combatants — they were village people. They would go out to check the dry rice or poppies and step on a land mine. Then they’d lay there for two or three days till someone could get the word out to Air America, and they’d send a chopper and bring them to our place.”

Dr. Schwarz was on track to becoming Battle Creek’s best-known ear, nose and throat specialist, but he also had taken a year of general surgery, and made do. He took off legs, delivered babies, did whatever else he could to show that Americans were decent people.

He served a hitch with the Navy, then spent more time there with the Central Intelligence Agency. When he came back to Michigan, he built two careers, in medicine and politics.

Today, he’s trying to decide whether to take on one of the toughest cases of all — his home state of Michigan, which has not only the worst unemployment rate in the nation, but also what he cheerfully characterizes as a “fractured, screwed-up, term-limited, irrational, quasi-logical, and absurdly dysfunctional political culture.”

What he is thinking hard about is running for governor as an independent, something that would require collecting 30,000 signatures. He is forming an exploratory committee to test the waters. Now 72, he says he’d serve a single term to try to get the state back on some sort of rational track.

Winning election as an independent would be a daunting task. Then again, anyone who spent a few years voluntarily dodging land mines and bullets in Vietnam and Laos is used to daunting tasks.

Once upon a time, John Joseph Henry Schwarz would have been seen as a dream candidate by the GOP, the party that was his natural home. He was Battle Creek’s mayor, then became a champion of higher education during 16 years as a staunch Republican in the state Senate. He masterminded John McCain’s upset primary victory in Michigan in 2000; ran for the GOP nomination for governor; served a term in Congress.

He is a defense hawk and tough on government waste. But when he ran for re-election in 2006, he was targeted as a “liberal” by the right-wing Club for Growth. In the end, he lost the primary to a former Bible salesman. Twenty years ago, that would have been beyond imagining. But despite experience and credentials, Schwarz is largely unacceptable to those who now run the GOP.

Why? For one thing, he believes abortion should be “safe, legal and rare.” He strongly supports stem-cell research and thinks “in the United States of America, people should have a right to health care.”

And he believes that it is better in a crisis to raise taxes than to destroy the infrastructure of a state. “Especially the universities. You don’t tear down something you have worked so hard to build.”

Yet, increasingly, that’s not how Republicans see things. But he isn’t at home with the Democrats, either. “I am sort of a center-right guy, and the parties have gotten so polarized that I think maybe 40 percent of voters don’t feel they have a home in either one anymore.” Polls show some evidence that he is right. If he could win 40 percent of the vote, he could indeed be elected governor as an independent. That might not be as revolutionary as it sounds. In recent years, other states have elected independent governors, including Maine, and most famously, Jesse Ventura in Minnesota.

But could that happen in Michigan? The governor’s race is open, and both parties have strong fields of contenders.

Republicans are favored, if only because of the unpopularity of Gov. Jennifer Granholm, a Democrat. But that could change — and polls show the GOP-controlled state Senate is even more unpopular.

Schwarz may face another hurdle. Maverick candidates are often charismatic campaigners who later flop at governing. The good doctor was actually a master of legislative coalition building and compromise, though not without a few yelling matches. But he has never been a very effective campaigner. He’s not a spellbinding orator, doesn’t promise things he can’t deliver, and doesn’t suffer fools as gladly as other politicians feel they must.

“I believe an experienced independent could be an asset this year,” he told me, and maybe even win if the voters are in the mood for common sense. But then he added, cheerfully, “what the hell do I know?”

Veteran journalist and national Emmy Award winner Jack Lessenberry teaches at Wayne State University, serves as Michigan Radio’s senior political analyst and writes regularly for several publications. He also serves as The Toledo Blade’s writing coach and ombudsman and is host of the weekly television show Deadline Now on WGTE-TV in Toledo.

Tea Party Hijackers

by Tim Skubick
February 19, 2010

America, they say, is a red and blue country divided between Democrats and Republicans. Now there is unfolding a civil war within the Grand Ole Party that threatens to marginalize the GOP.

Even though the re-election bid of U.S. Senator John McCain out in Arizona appears to have little to do with politics around these parts, think again. The impact could be huge.

The Tea Party crowd out west has teamed up with conservative radio talk show host J.D. Hayworth, and between the two of them they are attacking McCain for not being conservative enough.

In fact, McCain is “an incumbent who calls himself a maverick but in fact is a moderate” who is “teaming with Democrats on key issues,” intones Mr. Hayworth, who is running against McCain in the GOP primary — and could win.

What is this country coming to…a lawmaker has the audacity to be moderate and team with the other party to get things done in Washington?

Here’s the dirty little secret the Tea Party gang has apparently missed: the vast majority of residents in red and blue states actually want the pols from both parties to cooperate. Imagine that!

Poor Sarah Palin. When not writing notes to herself, she is taking Tea Party lumps for working to elect her old running mate.

Are you listening Michigan Republicans?

There is a Tea Party movement in this state, too, and who knows what incumbent they may take on for being too “moderate” and “teaming” with the other side?

State GOP Chair Ron Weiser late last month was rather sanguine about the Tea Party stuff, suggesting it was not an “organized movement that e-mails each other back and forth.”

Asked if it was OK for them to go after McCain, he advised: “They can go after whoever they want.” But, he added, “I don’t think John McCain has any different view than they do.” Obviously, Weiser, back then, was clueless, because he also noted that he didn’t think the T.P. gang was focused on booting McCain out of office.

Mr. Weiser concluded that the movement here “is not going to affect our elections in Michigan.” So much for that.

But what if the Michigan party bigwigs show up at a convention with a slate of candidates for statewide offices and the Tea Party folks find them to be too “moderate” and too willing to “team” with the other side?

Or what if they go after incumbent legislative Republicans who have demonstrated the same malady?

Will Weiser and company sit back and let the minority take over or will he stand up and confront them, thus producing an ugly headline: Mainstream GOP Hijacked by Tea Party Fringe?

Please recall such an incendiary battle years ago when the Pat Robertson for President gaggle refused to make nice with the Michigan GOP leadership who wanted George H. Bush for president. The Rev’s followers argued Bush was not conservative enough for them. Sound familiar?

If it happened once, surely it could happen again. And a divided GOP going into the fall elections is an answer to a prayer from Michigan Democrats, who desperately need a little political manna from somewhere this election cycle.

Tim Skubick is Michigan’s Senior Capitol correspondent and has anchored the weekly public TV series “Off the Record” since 1972. He also covers the Capitol and politics for WLNS-TV6 in Lansing.

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Generation Gap on Nerds
What is a nerd and how do we feel about them? The answers are decidedly different depending on your age.

The 9th grader was sitting at the kitchen table the other night working on geography, and the question was, during a study break, how are nerds viewed in your school?

Without missing a beat, she noted, “They are smart and liked by other kids.”

Wow. If you are over 40-something, that is not the description you would have used.

They were socially out of it. Certainly not a member of the in-clique, which frowned on glasses held together by duct tape, a slide rule hanging down and countless pens protruding from the shirt pocket.

Of course, this generational revelation is important in the context of the Nerd ads that Rick Snyder is imposing on every TV viewer in the state…at least he hopes everyone.

He is in desperate need to up his name ID, so the Ann Arbor business guy has taken a calculated risk by calling himself a nerd for governor — and with the younger set it will probably work.

That’s because they aspire to be rich like other nerds such as Warren Buffet and Bill Gates. Being rich and being nerdy go hand in glove with the younger set, and so the ad works.

However, research indicates that young people don’t vote. Oh sure, they showed up in astounding numbers for Barack Obama, but then they retreated to their ipods and text messaging thing-a-ma-bobs.

In strong contrast, the older folks, who don’t cotton to nerds, vote in larger numbers and may not want a nerdy governor.

It’s a roll of the dice, with Snyder thinking perhaps he can rekindle the Obama generation and get them to the polls in August when most of them will be on the beach soaking up some rays.

Snyder wins with Obama voters…in a GOP primary? Wow, somebody pass the duct tape.

Let’s Raise More Money
Are we truly our brothers and sisters keepers?

The governor showed up to present her new budget, which includes another $500 million in budget cuts, a doctor’s tax, and a sales tax on services.

She explained that her budget was revenue neutral, which is just another way of saying there are no general tax increases in there.

While that is the politically proper stance to take during an election year, believe it or not there were some Democrats who did not like the revenue neutral suggestion.

“If I had my way, I’d raise $1.2 billion,” opined Rep. George Cushingberry from Detroit, who chairs the mighty important House Appropriations Committee. Having said that, he confesses he is not going to get his way because legislative Republicans want no part of anything that even smells like a tax hike.

You’ve heard the GOP mantra, “This is not the time to increase taxes on folks who are struggling.” Of course, for the GOP it is never a good time to raise taxes on anyone (but we digress).

Well, it turns out there was another Detroit Democrat who wants to tax her very own constituents because, she claims, it is the right thing to do.

With the governor 30 feet away and listening intently, Rep. Shanelle Jackson lectured her governor that the “revenue neutral” idea was a bad idea. In fact, she reported that her neighbors are telling her, “We are willing to give a little more if the folks next door can continue to eat or save their home from foreclosure or get into a better job training program.”

“I want more revenue,” she advised the governor, who never responded to the plea.

Betya when the governor meets privately with the Legislative Black Caucus, she’ll get another earful on this more-money demand.

At least somebody is talking the talk and walking the walk about taking care of brothers and sisters who are in dire need.

What’s the old saying, “If not for the grace of God, go I?”

Blood on the Campaign Trail

by John Lindstrom
Gongwer News Service
February 19, 2010

On Saturday, February 13, when they should have been otherwise engaged in buying flowers and candy for Valentine’s Day, friends and associates of former Governor James Blanchard started getting text messages telling them that Bob Bowman had decided not to seek the Democratic nomination for governor. It was hardly the token of love many Democrats had hoped for.

Meanwhile, Republicans have already begun violating Ronald Reagan’s 11th Commandment of partisan brotherly love, to the point that gubernatorial candidates are already calling in the cops (so to say) to try and arrest the campaign trash talk.

Ahhh, the days are growing longer, spring is coming and there’s romance in the air. Well, actually, that fragrance detectable in the atmosphere is not the roseate perfume of love, but the musky, heady, sweaty odor of electoral politics.

Anyone who has paid the least attention to politics in the last, oh, two decades (three decades? Four? Wait, when was Woodrow Wilson president?) knew this scenario would happen. And, it’s happening right on schedule. In fact, given recent political trends, it could be argued it’s happening a little late.

The first blood was drawn in this election some time ago, at least at the beginning of January when Lt. Governor John Cherry Jr. stunned everyone by pulling out of the gubernatorial race. Since that moment the dynamics at the gubernatorial political level have changed and driven down two different tracks.

First the Democrats: their struggle is to figure out who will be their field of candidates. Since Mr. Cherry abandoned the struggle, the only definite new candidate is Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero. House Speaker Andy Dillon (D-Redford Twp.) has created an exploratory committee and, according to a variety of sources, is telling party officials that he is close to already raising $1 million and is readying a campaign structure. Should be good, right? Take those two along with Rep. Alma Wheeler-Smith (D-Salem Twp.) and the Dems should be all set for a hearty partisan donnybrook, right?

No. Top Democrats are bereft at the thought of a Dillon/Bernero (okay, and Smith) lineup. No kidding, they are sweating through their five-day deodorant pads at the thought.

Mr. Dillon has isolated most of organized labor, and the liberal Democrats are furious at him for his disastrous budget deal with Republicans. Mr. Bernero has energy, drive, passion (okay so far), maybe a little too much populism for the general electorate (that could be dealt with), but he has, well, Shakespeare said it best: “I would that my horse had the speed of your tongue.” Democrats worry that they won’t have enough bandages to staunch Mr. Bernero’s bleeding feet if he shoots them as often as they fear he will.

So Democrats had crossed their fingers and hoped great hopes that someone else (and, if possible, someone with money, because the state’s campaign matching fund is effectively broke) would come into the race. Someone without heavy political baggage that would weigh them down in the campaign.

Denise Ilitch was one big hope, but she decided there wasn’t enough time to mount an effective campaign.

Then they hoped Mr. Bowman, the former state treasurer and current online umpire of Major League Baseball, would take up the colors and run. When he filed a campaign committee, because he had spent money coming into the state to court interest, one might have thought there had been an Elvis sighting with all the excitement.

But then the text messages started coming on Saturday, followed by a surprise public statement issued Monday morning. Mr. Bowman has not said publicly why he decided not to run. There is talk that he may become the next baseball commissioner, but the most likely reason now is that relocating his family from Connecticut, so he could erase the part-time resident status critics would hang on him, was too difficult.

(And while top Democrats had hoped either Ms. Ilitch or Mr. Bowman would have run, substantial whispering campaigns had already begun. Ms. Ilitch, some said, was “an empty dress.” Mr. Bowman not only wasn’t a full-time resident, he was the guy that brought you that, albeit temporary, 38-percent tax increase in 1983).

So now, officials wait and hope that former Genesee Country Treasurer Dan Kildee will get into the game. Mr. Kildee talks like a candidate, with requisite caution. He has government and campaign experience, labor likes him, Genesee County likes him (no small thing in a Democratic primary). What he does not have is money. He also has the added disadvantage of having just started a new think tank on community development that he spent years developing. He has already made it clear that if running for governor means folding the think tank, then somebody else can run for the state ranch house on Lansing’s Oxford Street.

So the leftover Valentine’s candy Democrats are crunching on is their fingernails as they wait to see what their final lineup will be. In that, they are sharing their diet with Republicans who are suddenly all atwitter over the growing nastiness of their race.

This too had been expected with Mr. Cherry’s drop-out. Republicans were hoping they could still spend some time hammering Mr. Cherry as the successor to Governor Jennifer Granholm, but his departure meant the GOP candidates for governor now had to focus on each other to build support and win votes.

Since the candidates — Attorney General Mike Cox, Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, U.S. Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-Holland), Ann Arbor business exec Rick Snyder and Sen. Tom George (R-Kalamazoo) — agree on the broad perspectives of their campaign policies, they have separated themselves elsewise.

Politicians tend to believe that just flashing a winning smile is no longer enough to guarantee victory. When dentistry doesn’t work, turn to butchery. So already the knives are out, and it has gotten to the point where Mr. Hoekstra has called on Mr. Cox to investigate the legality of a shadow company’s ads against him. Mr. Bouchard has likewise raised complaints about ads against him from a group that also targeted Mr. Snyder.

Mr. Snyder’s campaign has alleged that Mr. Cox’s supporters are behind the attacks, which Mr. Cox’s spokespersons have denied.

For his own part, Mr. Snyder has criticized all his opponents in his TV ad calling himself a nerd. In it, he trumpets his detailed Michigan recovery plan and doubts a politician could understand it (no offense to Mr. Snyder, but the plan ain’t that hard to follow).

Publicly, Republicans hope the bloodbath is short-lived and everyone will be passing the chocolates soon as the state sits back for a polite, pleasant partisan parley on policy. Privately, they know the chopping and hacking will only get worse.

This, for the time being, creates a tactical problem for them: while the Democrats are still trying to put together their lineup, no Democrat is publicly attacking the other potential candidates. The longer the Republicans have the bloody field to themselves, the more they worry they both provide the Democrats fodder for the November race and run themselves so ragged they make their candidates unattractive.

Can you feel the love? No? Imagine that. Well, St. Patrick’s Day is coming up; maybe the candidates are showing their Irish early.

John Lindstrom is publisher of Gongwer News Service. For nearly 50 years in Michigan, Gongwer News Service has provided independent, comprehensive, accurate and timely coverage of issues in and around Michigan’s government and political systems. For subscription information, including a free trial, visit Gongwer online.

Political Establishment Out of Touch with Voters

Guest Column
by Roger Buchholtz

February 16, 2010

Scott Brown’s Massachusetts victory demonstrates the disconnect between voters and the Republican and Democratic Party establishments that has been in evidence for some time now. That view was validated in two December 2009 polls:

1. Wall Street Journal/NBC – Comparing the favorable/unfavorable ratings of the Republican and Democratic parties and the Tea Party movement, Tea Party leads with 41 percent favorable to 24 percent unfavorable, compared to 35/45 for Democrats and 28/43 for Republicans. See poll.
2. Rasmussen Reports found that 73 percent of Republican voters believe Republicans in Washington are out of touch with the base. See report.

In addition, a January 28, 2010, Rasmussen poll found that 45 percent of the public believe that most Congress members are corrupt, while 28 percent believe they are not, with 26 percent undecided. See report.

On January 6, Rasmussen released poll results showing only 32 percent of likely voters nationwide are even somewhat convinced that their elected representatives have their best interests in mind. The electorate is highly skeptical of incumbents. See report.

A national Tea Party website, called the Contract From America, asks visitors to vote on which public policy issues they consider the most important. The national FairTax is currently in the #1 position, with twice the votes of term limits, balanced budget amendment, drill here/drill now and 30 other issues on the list. No other tax reform proposal even made the list. At the Michigan Tea Party Convention held in Holt last spring, the MI FairTax was the runaway winner as the #1 issue of importance in Michigan.

Politico is now reporting that 2009 will probably represent still another record-breaking year for lobbying revenues, in spite of the current difficult economy. See report. This buying and selling of votes for tax and other favors has so corrupted our representative form of government that many legislators no longer listen to their constituents.

The above information can be very useful to candidates in upcoming elections, but most are just learning of these recent polls and the Contract From America. For example, few candidates are aware that the FairTax/MI FairTax is the #1 issue for the millions of very politically active Tea Party members. These surveys show candidates that they likely have a better chance of winning by choosing to run on issues of importance to constituents, and truly representing constituents, rather than running as establishment party members, regardless of their party affiliation.

Defining who candidates are and in what manner they will represent constituents can best be predicted by whether they run as an establishment party candidate or as a representative of the people.

Currently, no political party advocates the FairTax or encourages its candidates to run on it, often saying that it is too difficult to explain (that the public is not capable of understanding it). The Tea Party votes placing FairTax at the top of its issues list dispels the claim that the public can’t comprehend the FairTax. A more likely reason is that the buying and selling of tax favors (which accounts for half of all lobby money going to the political establishment) is eliminated by the FairTax/MI FairTax.

The MI FairTax is a simple 9.75-percent retail sales tax that will replace the current 4.35-percent state income tax, 6-percent sales tax and most business taxes. Michigan residents recognize that they already are paying all so-called business taxes, as businesses treat tax cost just like other expenses and pass the cost on in prices. We citizens also understand that the tax-inflated prices of Michigan-produced goods and services place Michigan labor and business at a competitive disadvantage to products produced elsewhere, and that this is costing us our jobs. A Harvard University study determined that 22 percent of the retail price of American-produced goods and services are taxes hidden in our prices.

The MI FairTax is unique in that it provides for a monthly “prebate” payment to every legal household in the amount of what the tax would be for expenditures up to the poverty level. Because of the prebate and other untaxed uses of income, the typical Michigan household will have an effective tax rate of around 2.5 percent.

Since the MI FairTax rate is set to raise the same amount of revenue as the taxes it replaces, Michigan residents will be paying about the same amount in taxes as we are today. The major differences are that we will be able to see our true tax burden for the first time in generations (you can’t fight it if you can’t see it), we will have the most attractive business tax environment in America to attract jobs, and we will have re-established our representative form of government where our elected officials represent the people rather than special interests.

For more information, visit the MI FairTax website.

Roger Buchholtz of Kalamazoo is volunteer president of the MI FairTax Association.

Politics after Cherry

by Gongwer News Service
January 8, 2010

For all his angels on the head of a pin, Thomas Aquinas is not easy to simplify, but he did speak of knowing by faith and knowing by reason.

On Monday, January 4, Michigan Democrats knew both by reason and faith that Lt. Governor John Cherry Jr. would be their gubernatorial candidate. By noon Tuesday, January 5, they knew by reason he would not be their candidate, and they knew only by faith that someone would carry the party’s mantle into November.

Mr. Cherry’s decision to withdraw was truly stunning, something made late and kept tightly within a trusted circle. When rumors first started circulating late Monday that he might step aside, most Democrats were baffled as to why he would suddenly withdraw.

The official reason is money. Mr. Cherry raised only $1 million and spent virtually all of it, according to unofficial reports (until state campaign finance reports are filed we will not know for sure). For a moment think of what it means to say that he raised “only” $1 million. $1 million still gets a lot in this world: nice cars, a pretty nice house, one helluva vacation anywhere, the ability to send you and maybe a half-dozen buddies climbing up Everest, a modest but acceptable life for probably the rest of anyone’s life. What it won’t buy you is a fighter jet, a battleship or, apparently, a decent shot at getting elected governor in Michigan.

Many Democrats question whether money is truly the reason. Times are tough, but if Mr. Cherry were a little more aggressive about asking for money he might have turned the funding situation around. Their theory is that a constant set of bad polls showing him too tied to Governor Jennifer Granholm and too far behind almost any of the putative Republican candidates led him to the conclusion he could not win.

The problem with that theory is it is far too early to make that conclusion. With the campaign barely beginning in earnest, it is dangerous to make a decision based on poll numbers. Any Democrat would run badly now. Republicans are rightfully confident of their chances, perhaps too confident for comfort. But things can change quickly, and if the economy shows any signs of life (and there is some reasonable hope it will), if some major new developments come into the state, if Republicans make a major faux pas, if any of a number of factors happen, a Democrat’s chances could jump markedly.

Perhaps both thoughts — money and polls — are true, and the combination was enough to send Mr. Cherry out pheasant hunting this week instead of going on the stump. Perhaps he was having too tough a time raising money so he could begin to be competitive against Republicans.

Why he decided to drop out at this point is academic in contrast to the situation both parties now face. Some points to consider:

– Some Democrats are furious that President Barack Obama did not help the situation by appointing Ms. Granholm to a cabinet post, top ambassadorship or major judicial post. A year ago former Virginia Governor Tim Kaine came to Michigan to discuss the upcoming election, and sources said top Democrats urged her appointment. If Mr. Cherry were running as an incumbent, if he had time to make his own proposals and assert himself in the office, the entire dynamics of the race, even facing the bad economy, might be different, they said. But Ms. Granholm never got the call, and some Democrats feel Mr. Obama deserves the blame.

– Almost no top Democratic grandee wants either House Speaker Andy Dillon or Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero to be the candidate. If they could pick anyone to run it would be U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Lansing), but so far she expresses no interest. They fear that both Mr. Dillon and Mr. Bernero are coated with too many negatives to make a successful run. But who does that leave? Various sources say the emphasis seems to be on finding a candidate with no heavy Lansing connections, someone who cannot now be tied to the problems over which government founders.

– Whether Mr. Cherry’s departure makes the Republican effort easier or harder in November is not worth worrying about at this point. What it does do is mean the GOP candidates will have to focus on themselves now. With the most tangible symbol of an ongoing Granholm administration now out of the race, the candidates will have to, for at least the primary season, spend more time hammering each other than they will the governor. The winner of the primary battle will have plenty of time to slam the current chief executive during the general election.

– Finally, with Mr. Cherry gone it is noteworthy that two senior political leaders, one from each party, have taken themselves out of contention for the residence on Lansing’s Oxford Street. Last year Oakland County Executive L. Brooks Patterson decided not to run. What would an election between Mr. Cherry and Mr. Patterson have been like, a race between two seasoned, indisputably wise (yes, Brooks is wise, not just a wiseacre) candidates whose primary focus has always been results and not ideology? We cannot know by reason; we can only reckon by faith what it might have been, and we can hope that whomever each party tosses onto the stage this autumn approaches the knowledge, experience and ability of these two leaders in asking the voters for their trust.

For nearly 50 years in Michigan, Gongwer News Service has provided independent, comprehensive, accurate and timely coverage of issues in and around Michigan’s government and political systems. For subscription information, including a free trial, visit Gongwer online.

Blown Away

by Tim Skubick
November 20, 2009

Out of the blue, the governor was asked what title she would use if she wrote a book about her tenure in Lansing.

How about Blown Away?

You’ll recall that was the line she used in one of her State of the State speeches as she gushed about how her economic recovery plans would eventually blossom.

“In five years you’ll be blown away,” she confidently reassured everyone.

Sitting at the anchor desk that night, one recalls thinking, “That line is going to be used against her by somebody down the line.”

And true to form, it was and still is — and in retrospect even the governor concedes the line was a mistake.

But those two words capture the essence of this governor, which will be part of her legacy.

You can almost hear her and Team Granholm behind closed doors brainstorming about the lousy state of Michigan’s economy and wanting desperately to say something positive. Being positive is in her DNA, and her troops, eager to please her, know it.

Everyone in the room believed that the seeds the governor was planting would result in a diversified economy long after she was gone. So wanting to strike that positive note, you could see them nodding in agreement that in five years, folks would be blown away.

Here was the rub, and this is what has plagued this governor from the get-go. There was no hard-nosed realist in the room to shake everyone to their senses, someone to stomp on the rose-colored glasses and urge everyone to get real. Far as we can tell, very few of her inner circle advisors have regularly challenged her, taken her on and pointed out the consequences of some of her decisions.

It is not healthy for any governor to have group-think, with everyone on the same page all the time.

Somebody should have said, “Governor, I understand your desire to say something nice, but this line is a ticking time bomb. You may feel good about using it, but it’s going to come back to haunt you. Some opponent is going to say, why do we have to wait five years? Why didn’t you do something before this so we don’t have to wait? Take the line out, now.”

If somebody in the room did say that, apologies to that person, but it’s highly unlikely that happened.

It is widely believed in this town that the governor does not like confrontation, although she has certainly had to confront it and deal with it successfully. But in the political sandbox, sometimes you have to throw sand in the other guy’s eye just to get your toy back and establish who is in charge.

Not wanting to hurt someone’s feelings is an admirable human trait, as is wanting to be uplifting and optimistic, but sometimes that desire gets in the way of reality, which in this case produced the blown-away line.

As for what her book title would be, the governor confesses she has none, but she says the content would focus on leadership in a crisis.

And for the first time, she concludes that her “biggest flaw, my biggest liability” was the lack of legislative experience before she became chief executive to cope with this never ending economic mess.

As for a chapter in her book on another political career, she promises: “I have no intention of running for anything again.” With the exception, she laughs, of a post on the PTA.

Tim Skubick is Michigan’s Senior Capitol correspondent and has anchored the weekly public TV series “Off the Record” since 1972. He also covers the Capitol and politics for WLNS-TV6 in Lansing.

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Farm Turf War
As long as everybody stays in his or her own lane, life in this town can be tranquil. Alas, when somebody wanders onto someone else’s hallowed ground, you get a turf war.

And we’ve got a dandy one unfolding right now.

In this corner, Gov. Jennifer Granholm. And in that one, the state’s farming community led by the Michigan Farm Bureau.

Seems she wants the power to pick the director of the state Agriculture Department, and the other guys want the status quo, which allows the Agriculture Commission to do the picking.

Granholm has at least one supporter, former Gov. Bill Milliken. Back in the ’70s when his administration was up to its eyeballs in the PBB controversy — cattle eating feed laced with that chemical and then humans eating that meat — Milliken locked horns with B. Dale Ball.

Ball was anointed by the ag commission. Milliken wanted to fire him but couldn’t. Milliken lost.

This governor is not in the middle of any such controversy, but she’s created another one by encroaching on Farm Bureau turf, and the farmers are winning.

Ms. Granholm figures, as did other governors before her, that it makes sense to give the chief executive the authority over appointments so that the buck stops at the governor’s desk.

One could argue that indirectly she has that power now, in that she appoints the commission. So if she wanted person “X” to run the department, she calls her appointees and tells them what to do.

Governors tend to favor direct power over indirect, but the state Senate last week undid what the governor hopes to do.

Now the game comes down to Democrats in the House. Will they side with their governor or the farmers?

Since she may lose this battle, the governor’s folks are making noises about finding a compromise to end this little turf scrimmage. And it is simple: she picks the director with the advice and consent of the board.

Done.

Bouchard the Dancer
Mike Bouchard is no wimp. He proudly packs heat and is not afraid to use his hefty size to his advantage, so you would think he’d be the last guy to be an accomplished dancer.

Ah, but he is.

Watch how he dances around a very sticky wicket unfolding in the GOP primary for governor, namely what to say about Mike Cox, a fellow candidate for gov.

Cox is soaking up lots of free media, but not the kind you would necessarily want, over his role in investigating an alleged party at former Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick’s pad. Cox concluded, “What party?” and tagged it an “urban legend.” But apparently not everyone agrees, although there is no proof to the contrary.

So the issue on the campaign trail is the credibility of Mr. Cox.

Your comments Sheriff Bouchard?

“I’m just focused on my message,” he laces up his dancing shoes.

“So you are not going there?”

“I’m not going there,” he heads for the dance floor.

“Why don’t you want to go there?”

“I’m focused on my issues,” he taps away.

He is pressed further and notes that if other candidates or voters want to comment on Mr. Cox, they are free to do so, as he stands up for free speech just as long as he doesn’t have to participate.

“I’m not worrying about somebody else. That isn’t where my focus is,” he goes on.

Well, if that is the case, then Mr. Bouchard should be willing to promise that he will resist the temptation to exploit the story for his own benefit.

He waltzed away from the pledge, dredging up a line we never heard before, “I’m focused on exactly where I’m focused,” he repeated redundantly.

Points for staying on message, but one final attempt: “Why not make the promise?”

Here’s why not: “Because I’m bigger than you,” he smiles.

Nuf said.