Running Mates

by Tim Skubick
March 26, 2010

You are aware of the silly little game journalists play to see who can be first to write about a story. Be assured that this is the first time you will read anything about the GOP and Democratic nominees for governor thinking about running mates.

How absurd to even think about it. Heck, the primary for picking the candidates is a whopping 130 days away and the field is just beginning to fire up. Speculation on who will be second on the ticket is just plain silly.

Think again.

Betya each candidate in a private moment or two has allowed him or herself to drift toward that, if for no other reason than to have some fun contemplating the “what ifs” of this person or that.

A natural place to begin the search is with your opponents.

To be sure, often times primaries are such bruising events that the opponents inflict injuries on each other. And when all is said and done, the hard feelings between the contenders are palpable.

Nonetheless, after a grueling toe to toe and mano a womano battle years ago, victor Howard Wolpe picked opponent Debbie Stabenow for the Democratic ticket. This was no match made in heaven. To wit, they arrived at the announcement news conference in separate cars. But for political reasons he picked her, and the two proceeded to lose to John Engler.

So what about the 2010 race?

If Mike Cox wins the GOP nomination, the betting money is he may ask one of his opponents to join him. Whether the opponent would is another question. It is also unlikely Cox would end up as the running mate for somebody else if he loses the nomination. Some conclude he would bring too much political baggage to the ticket. The conclusion may be unfair, but it’s out there.

Pete Hoekstra is another case. Adding Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard would make some geographical sense. Hoekstra is from “that” side of the state (West Michigan) and the Mikester is from over here (East Side).

Many in this town believe the only reason Sen. Tom George of Kalamazoo remains in the hunt is to prove he could be a running mate for someone. That would make sense, too.

Rick Snyder, whether he wants to admit it or not, would want some hands-on Lansing experience if he got the GOP nod. If the self-described non-Lansing politician ever hopes to find the bathroom, he’ll need someone to point him in the right direction.

Even Snyder has admitted he would consider hiring career politicians, although his campaign literature suggests they are toxic and to be avoided at all cost.

On the Democratic side, everyone agrees that Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith has enough time in grade to be Andy Dillon’s or Virg Bernero’s second in command.

A Dillon-Bernero combo or vice versa just doesn’t look very good.

Dillon is tall; Bernero is…well, let’s just say he’s not so tall. It would be a weird picture on the tube and might draw more attention to them for all the wrong reasons.

But let’s not forget one other combination — picking a running mate from the other party.

Could you envision a Hoekstra-Dillon ticket?

The two of them actually debated last week, and they were quite in sync.

Stop laughing. It could happen. And remember, you heard it here…first.

Tim Skubick is Michigan’s Senior Capitol correspondent and has anchored the weekly public TV series “Off the Record” since 1972. He also covers the Capitol and politics for WLNS-TV6 in Lansing.

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Gutless In Lansing
Profiles in courage this ain’t. An example of pretty sharp politics, it is.

Faced with making a $255 cut per pupil, lawmakers who profess that education is their top priority are in a box.

The governor wants them to expand the sales tax to services to raise the funds to avert the cut. But in an election year, voting for anything that even smells like a tax hike is verboten. Yet those same solons run the risk of offending mom and dad back home if their little Johnny or Janey ends up in a classroom with 50 other pupils.

What’s a poor legislator to do? It’s a lose-lose, which lawmakers loathe-loathe.

Here’s what they will do: punt.

Quietly unfolding out of view is a scheme to place the sales tax question on the August ballot. And here’s the beauty of the move: if voters approve the sales tax change, the schools are saved. If the voters reject the sales tax and $255 ends up being sliced from every school kid, it’s the voters who are to blame and not the lawmakers.

“We didn’t cut education, you did,” will be the defensive rally cry of lawmakers seeking to save their own political necks this election cycle.

Pretty nifty, eh?

“I think lawmakers should have the courage to do this,” the governor advised the weary legislators the other day. Easy for her to say, she is not running for anything this time out.

But alas, she adds, if they can’t muster that courage, she would not stand in the way of allowing citizens to take the lawmakers off the hook.

So far there is not a consensus to take this escape route, but knowing these guys and gals, it’s only a matter of time before they do the math and pawn this puppy off on you.

Arf. Arf.

Explosive About-Face
For decades, when it comes to 4th of July time Michigan residents become instant lawbreakers, thanks to lawmakers who have banned really dangerous fireworks.

That means half the state travels across the border into Ohio to pick up the contraband, and everyone crosses the state line hoping the state cops don’t nab them en route to the family picnic.

But hope is on the way.

The continuing budget crunch is forcing lawmakers to get inventive, and here’s the latest scheme. Legalize those fireworks, force the seller to pay a fee, and the money would go — where else? — into a fund to cover the cost of local fire services.

It makes sense. Since the explosives are undoubtedly going to cause some grass fires or injuries, the local fire shops will need the extra money to respond to all the firework mayhem.

Chalk it up as another example of how far lawmakers will go to avoid a revenue increase. If dangerous fireworks were too risky in the past, why all of a sudden is it safe to light these things now?

Why? Because lawmakers don’t want to tax you, and if you lose a digit fumbling around with those M-80s and the like, that’s your fault, not theirs.

On a grander level, the concept of a user fee, which is what the fireworks fee would be, applies to road funds as well. But the backers of more revenue for the roads are still stuck in neutral, unable to muster enough votes to raise the road bucks the state needs.

Here again, it makes logical sense to let those who use the roads pay for the roads. Yet as noted in this space countless times before, when has logic ever been the touchstone of legislative decisions?

The road-building lobby is running out of patience as it remains clueless on how to break the logjam in this election year. The best hope now is for a vote after the November election, which means another construction season will come and go with the potholes getting bigger and the cracks in the freeway bridges getting wider. And, because Michigan can’t match the federal highway dollars it’s supposed to receive, that money will go to Ohio and elsewhere.

At least you won’t have to drive on poor Michigan roads to Ohio to get your fireworks…maybe.

Foot in Mouth Extraction
It’s trite but true: timing is everything in politics. And Richard Bernstein is like the White Rabbit in Alice in Wonderland — he is late…oh yeah, really late.

In case you missed it, last week the Democratic candidate for attorney general volunteered that there were many in the party, supposedly including himself, who had had enough of the United Auto Workers tossing its political weight around in the state Democratic Party.

“People are tired of being pushed around and told what to do,” the passionate Mr. Bernstein asserted.

It was a great quote and almost unheard of in the annals of state Democratic politics for someone to take on the UAW with such a direct verbal broadside, knowing that the union can influence who gets the nomination.

The comments sat out there for a week, untouched by other media outlets. Bernstein’s opponent, David Leyton, whom the UAW likes, finally weighed in by calling Mr. B.’s remarks “highly disrespectful” to the union leaders.

This prompted, out of fairness, an overture to the Bernstein campaign to assess what pushback, if any, it had suffered since the original comments.

An email dated March 17, seven days after the interview, arrived at 2:18 p.m.

“Richard is a union member,” it began. “He respects the UAW and the labor movement and will be a great partner to them if elected,” it went on.

There was no hint of an apology.

But something happened between 2:18 and 4:20, when a second email arrived with this: “I made a poor choice in words and I apologize if my remarks were off-putting.”

Yes, it was an acknowledgment that he was sorry for what he said on March 11.

But why did it take a week for him to figure out he made a mistake?

Had the apology come within hours or even a day of the original statements, it would have had some credibility. But it took the Bernstein gang one week to figure out it needed to remove the candidate’s foot from his mouth.

Hence, the apology looks more like an 11th hour political damage control move rather than a sincere and from the heart “I’m sorry.”

Maybe it took him a week to figure out he spoke out of turn.

Or maybe he still believes what he said; he just doesn’t want to stand by his opinion for fear it might cost him the party A.G. nomination?

What a Difference a Year Makes

by Tom Shields
March 19, 2010

Just a year ago, the pundits had the Republican Party on the verge of extinction. Time Magazine said, “Republicans have the desperate aura of an endangered species,” and speculated that they could sink to the level of a third party in a two-party system.

John Cherry looked like a prohibitive favorite for the Dems’ pick for governor, and the Senate Democrats were measuring Mike Bishop’s office for drapes.

What a difference a year makes.

Republican governors in Obama states like Virginia and New Jersey. A Republican senator from Massachusetts and here in Michigan, a landslide state Senate victory by Mike Nofs in a seat won by Obama and considered a safe bet for the Democrats in 2010.

As we enter the engagement period of the 2010 election cycle, the polls and pundits are all predicting a GOP year for Michigan and the nation. Our polls have seen a swing of almost 20 percentage points toward Republicans when asking Michigan voters which party does a better job of running state government (from -8 percent to +9 percent).

Many people who voted for change in 2008 did not get the change they were looking for in 2009. The voters are clearly supporting candidates who promise less government. The unorganized Tea Party movement is held together by its common opposition to increased government spending and higher taxes — issues that align them with the Republicans in 2010.

And though we are four months out from the primary and seven months out from the general election, each party’s candidate field for governor of Michigan seems to be almost set. Now seems to be as good a time as ever to handicap the race for the Governor’s Office.

Democrat Primary
The shift in the political winds has swept the best candidates out of the Democrat race for governor. After John Cherry, Bob Bowman and Denise Ilitch decided that 2010 wasn’t going to be their year, the Democrat Party is left with three candidates who, collectively, probably do not have 50 percent name I.D. or enough money in the bank to cover Rick Snyder’s monthly consultant bills. Our polls show “Don’t Know” clearly leading the field with 64 percent, followed by Dillon (18 percent), Bernero (9 percent) and Smith (7 percent).

One year ago, Andy Dillon was the one candidate for governor who Republicans did not want to face. They may get their wish as Dillon finds himself in political primary purgatory. He’s too liberal for the conservatives and too conservative for the Democrat Party hierarchy. His endorsement from the building trades will help soothe some fears from some Dems, but his pro-life beliefs and his legislation to control the health care benefits of public employees has already cost him support from the AFL-CIO and puts him on a crash course with pro-choice Democrats and the MEA.

Of course, the candidate benefiting from all this is Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero. Bernero is the true accidental candidate whose stock has risen as all the other candidates dropped out of the race. The ultimate political opportunist, Bernero seems to be benefiting from the mere fact that he’s not Andy Dillon. Though he’s down in the early polls, if he can cobble together support from the liberals, pro-choice women, the unions and urban voters, he could be tough to beat in the August primary.

It appears that the only way Alma Wheeler Smith is going to get some respect for her candidacy is by recruiting Aretha Franklin as one of her co-chairs. With little money and a small base of support, she is destined to play third fiddle in the Democrat primary.

Republican Primary
In the Republican primary, Rick Snyder, the tough rich nerd, is shaking up the field by dumping $3 million in the campaign — outspending the other three candidates by a 10 to 1 margin.

Our most recent poll shows this turning into a three-way race with Hoekstra (21 percent), Cox (21 percent) and Snyder (20 percent) in a dead heat, and Mike Bouchard stuck at 10 percent.

The shortage of funds in the state’s matching fund pool could have a significant impact in the Republican primary as the other three candidates struggle to match Snyder’s bankroll. If Snyder continues at this pace, he could spend $8 to $10 million in the primary — more than double what his three opponents will spend combined.

One of the key developments to watch will be the endorsement of Right-to-Life. Snyder doesn’t meet RTL endorsement criteria, and if they weigh into the primary, one of the other three candidates could be propelled to front-runner status.

While Snyder’s media blitz has him moving up in the polls, it appears that west Michigan voters aren’t ready to embrace the nerd and are sticking with Congressman Pete Hoekstra. The candidate with the smallest war chest has the strongest base of local support. Hoekstra needs to raise the funds to defend his base and expand it to win the primary. But for now, Hoekstra sits on his west Michigan perch, until someone knocks him off.

One candidate trying to do just that is Attorney General Mike Cox. While Cox and Hoekstra have been neck and neck in the polls for the past year, Snyder’s media buy seems to have cut into Cox’s support the most. But Cox has stockpiled some cash, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him the next one out of the gate to run some advertising to keep pace. With money, political savvy, statewide name I.D. and Asian Carp, expect Cox to be in the thick of things in August.

Three million dollars and a cute ad campaign have bought Ann Arbor businessman Rick Snyder about 50-percent name ID and some early support. But it remains to be seen if the “tough nerd” campaign can hold the momentum for the long haul. Historically, wealthy business candidates like Dick Chrysler and Jim Nicholson have jumped out to early leads by spending early money — only to fade in the end. Snyder must put a little more meat on those nerdy bones to withstand the attacks that are sure to come in June and July.

The most puzzling campaign for the Republican nomination is the campaign team of Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard and Secretary of State Terri Land. Both candidates have won statewide Republican primaries but have not yet clicked as the east/west team. Running fourth in the early polls may help them stay out of the line of fire when the real mud starts flying, but they need to come up with something to break out of the cellar and into the pack.

While it’s still early, primary money tends to flow to the front-runners. A candidate can lose in the early months and still be the first across the finish line in August, as long as the candidate keeps in position to win.

General Election
With 12 different potential match-ups for the general election, we don’t have room here to speculate on each race. But our polling shows each of the Republican candidates beating each of the Democrats by margins of 15 percent to 22 percent. The mood of the electorate and the general quality of the candidates certainly favor the Republicans in November.

The potential entry of former Republican Congressman Joe Schwarz as an Independent candidate could muck up the race. Our polling shows him pulling just 14 percent of the vote, with 8 percent coming from the Republican candidate and 5 percent from the Democrat candidate. In a close race, he could be the difference. But right now, it’s anything but close.

If I were a bookmaker, here are the early odds I’d give each candidate. But I’d wait until the first of August or November to place your bets.

GOP Nomination:
Hoekstra: 2-1
Cox: 2-1
Snyder: 3-1
Bouchard: 5-1

DEM Nomination
Dillon: 2-1
Bernero: 5-2
Smith: 15-1

General Election
GOP Nominee: 2-3
DEM Nominee: 3-1
Independent: 25-1

Tom Shields is founder and president of Marketing Resource Group (MRG), a Lansing-based political marketing and public relations firm.

Daddy-Daughter Dance

by Tim Skubick
March 12, 2010

This is a tale of four fathers with daughters.

Let’s start with Bob Bowman.

For two full terms he worked as state treasurer for Gov. Jim Blanchard. “I’ve always been interested in being governor,” Bowman confessed after he left state government.

But the interest remained unexplored until Lt. Gov. John Cherry dropped out of the race for governor at the start of 2010. Bowman’s chance was at hand.

He formed an exploratory committee. But within days, Bowman had pulled out before ever getting in.

In part, the decision was based on the reaction of his daughter. The high school sophomore was two years from graduation and, like most kids her age, wanted to finish high school where she was, with all those old friends at her real home, and not in some “new home” in Michigan.

To be sure, it was not the only reason for Bowman to stay in Connecticut. But best we can tell, it had an impact on Bowman the daddy, which trumped Bowman the would-be governor.

He confided, “maturity sucks.” But he picked kid over career.

Rick Snyder started his family discussion about running for governor over a year ago. His wife brought it up first, and they went to the three kids next. He was concerned about his daughter and how she would react when other kids said nasty things about her dad. After all, he is a nerd.

She said she could handle it and, as he periodically checks in with her, Snyder reports she continues to handle it. Talk to him two months from now when the nasty segment of the campaign may be in full bloom.

Genesee County Democrat Dan Kildee also was caught off guard by the earth-shattering Cherry announcement. He dusted off his desire to be governor shortly thereafter and went to his family, too.

Kildee said his son was all for the bid for governor. His daughter was not, but when he formed his exploratory committee and said, “I intend to run,” he reported that his family was on board.

Maybe the daughter said a prayer? Kildee decided not to run.

House Speaker Andy Dillon was standing in the back of the room waiting to say hi to a bunch of business executives. It was the first of what would be a grueling and unending schedule of thumb-sucker events that candidates must endure to self-promote their candidacy.

As Dillon leaned against the wall waiting to take the microphone, someone noted that he had seen a picture in the newspaper of Dillon and his teenage daughter. It was taken the day before in Dillon’s hometown of Redford, where he and his family launched his bid to be governor.

Any man who has a daughter and saw the photo felt the tenderness between the two.

“That was a really beautiful picture,” the person whispered to Dillon.

He had been so busy, he had not even seen it, let alone had a chance to cherish the moment. And then without prompting he whispered, “Yeah, I won’t see her again until November.”

Voters rarely see the personal sacrifices politicians make in order to serve the public. They never get credit for that from an uncaring electorate. When they are out working a room, daughters and sons, not to mention spouses, are left to keep the home fires burning, wondering when the candidate/parent will be home.

You gotta wonder how many of those on the home front secretly hope the candidate loses.

For Bowman and Kildee, no worries there.

Tim Skubick is Michigan’s Senior Capitol correspondent and has anchored the weekly public TV series “Off the Record” since 1972. He also covers the Capitol and politics for WLNS-TV6 in Lansing.

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You Can’t Make This Stuff Up
In an unbelievable move, some key union leaders have asked former candidate for governor John Cherry to reconsider his decision to drop out of the race.

It is another in a series of unprecedented twists in the Democratic race for governor that has turned this spectacle into a certified train wreck.

Here is the irony.

Last December, when then-candidate John Cherry knew his campaign was about to self-destruct, he went to the UAW and pleaded for its early endorsement. Cherry needed an infusion of money and grassroots support to keep his front-runner campaign alive.

The union stiffed him.

Within a month, Cherry shocked the political establishment by packing it in.

Now, within the last week, the union leaders went back to Cherry hoping he might change his mind. He told them no. Cherry will not confirm any of this, only to say, “I don’t know what you are talking about.”

The fact that this happened underscores that some elements in the state’s labor movement are not overjoyed with the current field for governor that includes House Speaker Andy Dillon, Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero, and Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith.

Each has enough baggage to warrant an attempted re-do on Cherry.

Labor appears to be fragmented, which is not always a healthy sign — and also nothing new.

Dillon is getting the endorsement of the building-trades unions. The leadership was pleased when the Redford Democrat took on Gov. Granholm last year when she wanted to slap a hold on badly needed construction jobs from a proposed coal-fired energy plant.

Bernero may get the UAW endorsement, but there are mixed signals on that.

And Ms. Smith, who clearly has the resume to be governor, is not raising any money, and it appears no one is coming to her rescue.

On top of all that, the Teamsters may be looking at making an endorsement in the other party, which would not be out of character for them.

All of this is reaching critical mass as union leaders are set to huddle behind closed doors on March 12, hoping against hope to find a consensus candidate for governor.

“I think we can,” reflects David Hecker, who runs the Michigan Federation of Teachers.

Based on all these latest signals, Mr. Hecker might want to think again.

Messin’ with Mikey
Michigan’s political landscape is strewn with popular wisdom that turned out to be false. To wit, John Engler can’t beat Gov. Jim Blanchard; Jennifer Granholm can’t beat money bags Dick DeVos; and now comes…Mike Bouchard will disconnect from the governor’s race to seek a more winnable seat in Congress.

Where the heck did that notion come from?

Certainly not from Bouchard, whose campaign sent out a to-the-point statement: “I’m running for governor. I am not running for Congress.”

Nonetheless, seems like all the other campaigns have heard the “rumor” that goes like this: Bouchard’s gov effort is not getting traction despite his impressive $800,000 fundraising; the GOP folks in D.C. want to take out Oakland County incumbent Congressman Gary Peters in the worst way and figure Bouchard is the guy to do it; dissolving the Bouchard-Terri Land ticket would be a twofer for the party, in that Land could run for retiring Congressman Vern Ehlers’ seat in her West Michigan home base and forget about being lieutenant governor with Bouchard.

Far-fetched? Of course. Totally out of the question? Of course not.

Just for the sake of filling out the rest of this blog, let’s assume that the buzz has some gravitas. The first challenge for Bouchard is how does he “message” this thing in a positive way?

His detractors will quickly tag Bouchard with job-hunting for his own personal gain. The story line? Unable to win the governor nomination, political opportunist Mike Bouchard went hunting for a post he might win. When will this guy stop running for every office that opens up?

The tag could stick, but Bouchard could counter it with the following. The party came to me with the desire to win back control of the Michigan congressional delegation so that we could effectively fight President Obama’s socialist policies. If we defeat Peters, and Terri holds onto the GOP seat on the west side of the state, we can do more good for Michigan. So it is with reluctance that I bow out of the governor’s race for the good of the party.

Hogwash, says the Bouchard team while reminding that some of the other contenders for governor would love to undercut his effort by fanning a story that puts El Sheriff in a negative light.

Bouchard’s guys can’t prove that, but they are surely thinking it.

Switalski Hit by Rangel Mess
State Senator Mickey Switalski probably doesn’t know Congressman Charlie Rangel from Adam, but Mr. Rangel has had a profound impact on the senator’s effort to unseat incumbent Congressman Sandy Levin this August in the Democratic primary.

Funny how seemingly unrelated political events can be linked, and in this case the New York congressman’s behavior has influenced the outcome of the contest between the Macomb County senator and the veteran Democratic congressman from Royal Oak.

Check this out. Switalski shocked the political establishment last year by announcing that he would challenge Sandy Levin, who has served in Congress since 1983.

What did the Mickster have to lose? He was term limited out of Lansing, had nowhere to go, so why not take a swipe at the 78-year old incumbent? And if lightening struck, Switalski could trade his senator label for U.S. congressman.

To be charitable to the challenger, it was a long-shot from the get-go, long before Mr. Rangel got into trouble over ethical questions surrounding his personal finances. In the wake of that, Rangel stepped down as chair of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee.

And guess who is the new chair?

Much to Switalski’s chagrin, it’s none other than Sandy Levin.

Levin now has control over congressional spending or, if you want to be blunt, he can influence where the pork barrel funds go. Which means he can campaign back here and tell local voters, “if you send me back to Congress I will make sure Michigan gets its fair share of federal support.”

In a battered economy, any ray of hope will be greeted with applause. And how does Switalski counter that?

He might say, “I’m against pork barrel spending.”

But Levin can counter, “So am I, but if other states are going to take it, Michigan is now at the head of the line to get something, too.”

Mr. Levin will milk this chairmanship for all it is worth, and Mr. Switalski can’t do much about it — except send a nasty note to Rangel for messing up what little chance he had of winning in the first place.

Can the Candidates
Do the Job?

by John Lindstrom
Gongwer News Service
March 5, 2010

Herewith a point of argument that includes a prediction: if the professionals involved in government — that is, the people who work in and around state government, be they bureaucrats, lobbyists, policy analysts, reporters and others — were the only ones who could vote in the 2010 gubernatorial election, Michigan’s next governor would be John “Joe” Schwarz.

In fact, it is arguable that if those persons were the only ones who could vote in the election, Mr. Schwarz, former state senator, former member of Congress, former Republican candidate for governor, would win in a walk.

And in light of the surprising announcement Thursday night that former Genesee County Treasurer Dan Kildee was dropping out of the Democratic race barely more than a week after he got in, that prediction seems even more…predictable.

That prediction is not a knock, well not a hard knock, against any of the other remaining candidates running for governor: Republicans Attorney General Mike Cox, Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, U.S. Rep. Pete Hoekstra, Ann Arbor business executive Rick Snyder and Sen. Tom George (R-Kalamazoo) or Democrats House Speaker Andy Dillon (D-Redford Twp.), Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero and Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith (D-Salem Twp.).

But it is an expression of the frustration the professionals in government have endured, and the hope they have that whoever is elected governor in November knows what the hell he or she has to do and, even more importantly, how to get it done.

The field for governor should be set now. Others could still get in the race (and with Mr. Kildee’s exit some top Democrats might hope another name could emerge), but after the angst of the last several months that seems unlikely.

In the past two weeks there have been about a half-dozen major developments in the race: Mr. Kildee got in for the Democrats (to the relief of top Democrats worried about a Bernero/Dillon race), Mr. Dillon confirmed he was running, Mr. Dillon showed strength in new polls and so did Mr. Hoekstra and Mr. Snyder, and then to the surprise and some anguish of Democrats, Mr. Kildee got out.

The other development: Mr. Schwarz formed an exploratory committee for governor, to run as neither a Republican nor a Democrat. Until Mr. Kildee’s departure, Mr. Schwarz’s decision was probably the biggest surprise. Mr. Schwarz had been seen wavering on a possible independent bid. Earlier in the year he had said he was about 70 percent certain to run. By last week that had fallen to 50 percent certainty.

So his decision to establish an exploratory committee came as water in the desert for some people. There are lots of professionals eager to help his campaign, should Mr. Schwarz decide to run (which he has not yet).

Politics, and by extension government, is one of the few areas where professionalism is scorned by the public. Nobody wants his or her heart surgery performed by an amateur surgeon; nobody wants someone whose flying experience is limited to model airplanes piloting a 747 across the Atlantic; nobody wants a baker who has only made cookies with a Kenner Easy-Bake oven whipping up the daughter’s wedding cake; but nobody wants professional politicians trying to make government work. (Check out the reception Christopher Reeve’s character enjoyed when he defended professional negotiators in the film The Remains Of The Day, one of the few times the arts pay any tribute to the skill running a government can require.)

Yes, in a democratic republic we are all politicians because we are the government, and it is important to ensure that the viewpoints of all are included in the governing process. But there also have to be people who know how the law works, what the processes are, how to balance the books, how to make sure the cops show up when called and the inspectors find the nasty bugs whipped up in the peanut butter.

Talk to the people involved in government and it is striking how unenthusiastic they are about the candidates running for governor. They are not critical of each person’s intelligence. They worry somewhat about their different viewpoints, but they also know that whether from the right or the left, the person in charge tends to moderate, so eventually the new governor will lead more from the middle of the bird than from one of the wings.

But what the professionals worry about is: can any of these guys do the job? Can they figure out how to break down the partisan barriers that block so many things from taking effect? Can that person work efficiently — in other words, when he or she makes a pronouncement, will the bills or executive orders be ready to go in short order and not months? Can that person set an agenda and, as much as anyone can in a leadership position, stick to it? Can that person manage the different and sometimes competing elements of government so that the state advances by whatever measure one uses to determine advancement?

And can that person knock heads together when needed and still keep people talking to each other so resolutions are reached?

The fact that so many professionals, before Mr. Schwarz got in and Mr. Kildee got out, were interested in either Mr. Snyder or Mr. Kildee for governor should tell one something, at least about the other candidates. Mr. Snyder is backed by buckets of top business executives, who see him as a moderating influence outside of the bloodletting that goes on in government. Similarly, Mr. Kildee was seen as having effective governing cred that could have played well to the Democratic interest groups. But Mr. Kildee’s departure leaves the large middle ground of Michigan voters to consider Mr. Snyder. But Mr. Snyder is also a largely unknown quantity. The question remains, can he do the job?

Mr. Schwarz is a known quantity. He has become an independent because he disagrees with the direction (whichever direction that is) the Republican Party is heading. But he refuses to become a Democrat (in fact, Democrats tried hard to get him to switch parties and he declined). If Republicans now label themselves Reagan Republicans, Mr. Schwarz is a Lincoln Republican, a Teddy Roosevelt Republican, an Eisenhower and Rockefeller and Vandenberg and Milliken Republican. In other words, he is the kind of Republican many Republicans now reject by simply saying, “They weren’t conservatives.” (Maybe not, but boy could they govern.)

Nobody among the professionals has any doubt that Mr. Schwarz could do the job. Which is exactly why if the election were left to them, Mr. Schwarz would now profitably be measuring the drapes in the executive office for when he moves in next January.

But the election is open to all, and it is a fool’s errand to say who will win in November. The likely winner will come from one of the two parties, and right now the GOP has the edge. Everyone expects the primaries and the general election following to be so vicious that the public will feel comfortable voting only if the polling booths are in shower stalls. Right now, the thinking is that Mr. Schwarz’s presence could affect the outcome, but how is unknown. He could rob voters from both camps, so which benefits from his presence is a cipher.

And with a more limited Democratic primary, Mr. Schwarz might cut a larger figure in a general election, should he have the money needed to run a competitive campaign.

But he could also force the other candidates to do one of two things: try to measure up more to Mr. Schwarz as a knowing, competent candidate: or move farther to the fringe, pointing to Mr. Schwarz as one more example of the kind of politician trying to steal the public’s money and rights.

The one thing professionals hope for, and are worried about, is the election will come off as an amateur hour.

John Lindstrom is publisher of Gongwer News Service. For nearly 50 years in Michigan, Gongwer News Service has provided independent, comprehensive, accurate and timely coverage of issues in and around Michigan’s government and political systems. For subscription information, including a free trial, visit Gongwer online.

Virg for Governor?

by Tim Skubick
December 4, 2009

If the political press corps were given a secret vote to install the mayor of Lansing as a Democratic candidate for governor, betya the vote would be an overwhelming yes. That’s not necessarily because Virg Bernero would make the best governor, but he’d certainly be the most fun to cover.

Bernero is known for his short fuse, his hot and sometime vitriolic rhetoric and a shoot-from-the-lip mouth. He’s sort of Geoffrey Fieger without all the money.

“I have to be interested,” Bernero confided the other day as he launched a trial balloon that will draw pot shots from all corners, including labor leaders, John Cherry backers and a list as long as your arm of folks he has offended during his years in the political trenches.

His announcement comes as no shock. For months he’s been asked to embrace the candidacy of Lt. Governor John Cherry, and for months good Democrat Bernero has said nice things … but refused to deliver the goods.

Actually, this whole Bernero boomlet took root at a time when the domestic auto industry was taking one brickbat after another on the talking-head cable networks 10 months ago.

Bernero took up the cause and found himself on national TV more than the president as he ratcheted up his anger, rhetoric and blasts of the naysayers for attacking the industry. He was tagged “Angriest Mayor in America” and loved every minute of it.

In the midst of this, Bernero conveniently revealed that he was fielding calls from undisclosed sources urging him to run for governor.

But when pressed about doing it, he offered, “No. Absolutely not. I have no plans.”

So much for that.

During his re-election bid last fall, he was asked during a radio debate about serving out his four-year term. He said he would.

Now, safely re-elected with no fear of losing votes for office climbing, Bernero can safely explore a bid for governor while his opponents claim he was thinking about running all along.

Bernero was asked to categorically deny that and he offered, “Pretty much, yeah.”

“Pretty much” is not a categorical denial and he knew it, so he conceded that every politician thinks about running for governor, but “I never gave it serious consideration.”

A quick check revealed that his nose was not growing…at least not at that precise moment.

Last weekend in the Detroit Free Press he described a run as “very unlikely.”

But something happened between “very unlikely” and the decorating of the Bernero family Christmas tree that same weekend, as Bernero emerged ready to give “serious consideration” to seeking the nomination.

Bernero “became convinced” to take a look at it because he, along with others, has concluded Cherry can’t win — and the early polling data suggest that is a Cherry problem.

Now Cherry’s got another one: Bernero, who is going around saying, “many people have that feeling” that Cherry is toast. But Bernero refuses to join in the chorus directly by lamely suggesting, “I don’t know.” Regardless, he is doing the dirty work for Republicans, who can use Bernero’s words against Cherry should Cherry get the nomination.

Some will be tempted to just pass this off as another Virg-being-Virg gambit.

At first blush, he can’t be counted out. But bet on this: he will milk this thing for all it is worth, and in the end he’ll join the Cherry team — where he may be politely asked to stuff it.

Tim Skubick is Michigan’s Senior Capitol correspondent and has anchored the weekly public TV series “Off the Record” since 1972. He also covers the Capitol and politics for WLNS-TV6 in Lansing.

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This Will Get Their Attention
School administrators across the state are in a deep holiday funk. Instead of decorating the schools, they are dismantling them.

With a hefty $292-per-pupil cut staring them in the face, they are forced to do one of two things: dip into their rainy day fund to restore the cuts, or start slashing here and there to balance the books.

It’s the “here and there” that is getting all the attention, and here’s a sure fire way to balance the books: eliminate school buses and athletics.

That giant clunk you just heard was from administrators falling off their chairs.

Eliminating transportation and high school sports would get the parents to lobby Lansing for more money, but it’s a risky strategy due to schools of choice.

Schools of Choice was invented years ago on the Gov. John Engler watch and gave parents all over the state the power to move their kids to another district. If they were stuck in lousy district B, they were free to move their kids to district C if there was room.

Thus was born “competition in the school marketplace,” which is impacting the decisions that superintendents are making right now regarding budget cuts.

As one insider lamented the other day, “if I cut sports, all my parents will move their kids to some school that doesn’t.”

It’s a valid point. That would only plummet the district deeper into debt, as about $7,000 walks out the door with every kid who skedaddles somewhere else.

At a recent education conference, the keynote speaker suggested if the assembled administrators had any guts, they would cut out sports — and the hoots and hollers were deafening.

“Friday night football is a social event in our town.”

“Sports are the reason some kids stay in school.”

“I’d like to keep my job…and life.”

The laments were serious, but if we are serious about reducing the cost of education, which is more important: preserving what goes on in the classroom or on the gridiron?

Yeah, in Michigan, unfortunately, we know the answer to that.

Ah, Sweet Vindication
It was November 2001, one year before the Democratic primary for governor involving five hopefuls. In the hunt: a former governor named Blanchard, a former congressman named Bonior, two lawmakers named Peters and Smith, and the state’s first female attorney general named Granholm.

The quintet had agreed to do their first televised debate on Michigan Public TV, and it was not long into the broadcast that the subject of “experience” was raised by the anchor.

Of the five sitting there, Jennifer Granholm had the least. It was only four years earlier that she decided to take a shot at elective office for the first time, and now here she was trying to become the state’s first female governor.

She felt she had enough experience to be governor, but the woman sitting next to her came to a different conclusion.

State Sen. Alma Wheeler Smith had a ton of legislative experience, but when first asked if she felt Ms. Granholm had enough to be governor, Smith demurred. Unfortunately for Smith, the moderator had quotes from an earlier interview during which Smith did reject Granholm’s experience as insufficient.

Reluctantly, Smith confirmed that was what she said and, with Granholm looking at her, Smith in effect argued Granholm was not up to the task.

Suffice it to say, Granholm was not happy with the remark.

Fast forward to last week.

Gov. Granholm during a one-on-one interview conceded that one of her major “flaws and liabilities” in becoming governor was her lack of legislative experience.

Color Ms. Smith, now a candidate for governor again, vindicated.

Thanksgiving Postscript

by Tim Skubick
November 27, 2009

There’s a good reason why political columnists rarely offer up anything remotely connected to Thanksgiving: there is so little for which to give thanks.

Should everyone be rejoicing at the professional manner in which lawmakers and the governor resolved this year’s budget?

Or better yet, should we be thankful that they took two weeks off for hunting season and Turkey Day because, as the old saying goes, if they aren’t in town they can’t do anything to harm you?

You get the point.

However, now that you are feasting on leftovers from the TG feast, let’s see if it’s possible to write a thanksgiving postscript.

Thank you to Sarah Palin. She has provided a nice distraction from the gargantuan health care debate, two wars, and the sorry state of the economy around here.

1,500 souls showed up to buy her book in Grand Rapids, and by media accounts the turnout was enough to launch her bid for the White House in four years.

A little perspective please: Michigan has nine million people who did not go roguing, and that mere handful of Palintologists does not a movement make…media accounts notwithstanding.

Thanks to the Gang of 44 in the Michigan House. After spending almost 10 months in hibernation, this freshman class has shown signs of life as it tackles a rewrite of how we fund our schools and pushes a long overdue effort to revamp the state’s gawdawful term limits law. To be sure, they have not produced any results, but their heart is in the right place even if the votes, so far, are not.

Thanks to House Speaker Andy Dillon. Not for his proposed rewrite of the state’s health care system, but for providing the long-running “Will-He-Or-Won’t-He-Run-For-Governor saga.” He and his minions have managed to keep the thing alive for months, but the end is in sight, for which we can also be thankful.

Thanks to Governor Jennifer Granholm for scrubbing the holiday parties at the executive residence this year. The time-honored tradition dates back to former Gov. William Milliken, who was so enthralled by having the Capitol Press Corps over to the house that he had his staff flick the lights on and off precisely at 7 p.m. when the bash was scheduled to end. This governor, of course, would never be so tacky, but she could use the rest as she prepares to enter her final year in office.

Thanks to former Gov. John Engler, who is secretly plotting to influence the outcome of the next race for governor. What’s a political dogfight without the ultimate in political dogfighters sticking his nose into the fray while reports circulate that he and his wife are looking for a new home back here.

Thanks to the Senate Republicans for teaching our children that the word compromise is a four-letter word and that it is better to avoid seeking the middle ground on anything if it damages the GOP chances of winning the next election. Kids, don’t do as they say…compromise in the legislative process is not a dirty word.

And finally, thanks to those political bloggers who add to the discourse and manage to do it with total disregard for any journalistic standards, including pursuit of that little thing we call the truth. You make the rest of the media look pretty good…which in and of itself is quite an accomplishment and something to be thankful for.

Tim Skubick is Michigan’s Senior Capitol correspondent and has anchored the weekly public TV series “Off the Record” since 1972. He also covers the Capitol and politics for WLNS-TV6 in Lansing.

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Biting Off a Lot
Talk about a mouthful.

For months, this lawmaker and that have chatted about revamping the state’s tax system. Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith is tired of all the talking and took matters into her own hands this week.

She wants a graduated income tax.

She wants to close $3 billion in tax loopholes.

She wants a sales tax on services and a new state sales tax rate of 5.5 percent instead of 6 percent.

And when she has nothing else to do she wants to wipe out the 22-percent business tax surcharge.

In other words, she wants the moon, the sun and the stars and, unfortunately for the Democratic candidate for governor, she is not likely to get any of it by her self-imposed deadline of January 31.

But give her credit for trying and having the guts to announce that state government needs more revenue…about $6.5 billion more.

Her biggest hurdle, of course, is rounding up the votes from House and Senate members to pass all this stuff, not to mention convincing you to support the graduated income tax if it makes it to the November ballot next year.

Her second biggest hurdle is fighting off the opposition, which will be strong, loud and well financed.

“This is not going to be an easy sell, but it’s a sell that has to happen,” Smith argues.

“It looks like its dead on arrival from my standpoint,” counterpunches Chuck Hadden, who runs the Michigan Manufacturers Association that includes the major automakers.

Smith’s assignment is to “educate” citizens on why all this money is needed. She can’t do it in a 10-second sound bite, but the opposition can. It will say Lansing wants to take $6.5 billion in new money out of your pocketbook. End of story.

You can see who has the easier job trying to “educate” the citizenry.

But Smith is not conceding defeat. There’s plenty of time for that later on.

Did She Really Say That?
There is one common trait among avid hunters. They are so passionate about the sport that occasionally they lose touch with reality. Just ask Rebecca Humphries, who for the last five years has been the governor’s Department of Natural Resources director.

Nobody knew she had this problem until the news guys at the MIRS newsletter interviewed her the other day.

Ever since lawmakers decided to take two weeks off for hunting season and Thanksgiving, they’ve taken some well-deserved heat for not showing up in town. Think school funding crisis, economic mess, and college kids screaming for their $4,000 state scholarship…all of these placed on hold for this two-week traditional break.

The governor has been relatively mild in her public rebuke saying, “Lawmakers should come back” and work on these issues. Dollars to donuts that in private she is seething.

Sen. Gretchen Whitmer (D-East Lansing) has been more blunt. “I am appalled and disgusted” by this time off.

Enter one Ms. Humphries, who proves beyond the shadow of a doubt that she’s from another planet.

Asked in the interview about lawmakers taking time off to hunt, Humphries opined, “It is part of our heritage…I hope we never see a day when the legislature decides deer hunting isn’t important enough and so they just stay in Lansing and continue their business.”

Ah. Hello. Earth to Humphries.

Deer hunting trumps doing the citizens’ business?

This is not a close call. Lawmakers who hunt could do it on the weekend. OK, maybe let them go on opening day if it falls during the workweek, but after that it’s back in the saddle.

The DNR director has, on balance, done a respectable job. So maybe she (1) had an off day; (2) was misquoted; or, perish the thought, (3) really believes that stuff about hunting being more important than lawmakers working for the people first.

Let’s go with number three.