Politics after Cherry
For all his angels on the head of a pin, Thomas Aquinas is not easy to simplify, but he did speak of knowing by faith and knowing by reason.
On Monday, January 4, Michigan Democrats knew both by reason and faith that Lt. Governor John Cherry Jr. would be their gubernatorial candidate. By noon Tuesday, January 5, they knew by reason he would not be their candidate, and they knew only by faith that someone would carry the party’s mantle into November.
Mr. Cherry’s decision to withdraw was truly stunning, something made late and kept tightly within a trusted circle. When rumors first started circulating late Monday that he might step aside, most Democrats were baffled as to why he would suddenly withdraw.
The official reason is money. Mr. Cherry raised only $1 million and spent virtually all of it, according to unofficial reports (until state campaign finance reports are filed we will not know for sure). For a moment think of what it means to say that he raised “only” $1 million. $1 million still gets a lot in this world: nice cars, a pretty nice house, one helluva vacation anywhere, the ability to send you and maybe a half-dozen buddies climbing up Everest, a modest but acceptable life for probably the rest of anyone’s life. What it won’t buy you is a fighter jet, a battleship or, apparently, a decent shot at getting elected governor in Michigan.
Many Democrats question whether money is truly the reason. Times are tough, but if Mr. Cherry were a little more aggressive about asking for money he might have turned the funding situation around. Their theory is that a constant set of bad polls showing him too tied to Governor Jennifer Granholm and too far behind almost any of the putative Republican candidates led him to the conclusion he could not win.
The problem with that theory is it is far too early to make that conclusion. With the campaign barely beginning in earnest, it is dangerous to make a decision based on poll numbers. Any Democrat would run badly now. Republicans are rightfully confident of their chances, perhaps too confident for comfort. But things can change quickly, and if the economy shows any signs of life (and there is some reasonable hope it will), if some major new developments come into the state, if Republicans make a major faux pas, if any of a number of factors happen, a Democrat’s chances could jump markedly.
Perhaps both thoughts — money and polls — are true, and the combination was enough to send Mr. Cherry out pheasant hunting this week instead of going on the stump. Perhaps he was having too tough a time raising money so he could begin to be competitive against Republicans.
Why he decided to drop out at this point is academic in contrast to the situation both parties now face. Some points to consider:
– Some Democrats are furious that President Barack Obama did not help the situation by appointing Ms. Granholm to a cabinet post, top ambassadorship or major judicial post. A year ago former Virginia Governor Tim Kaine came to Michigan to discuss the upcoming election, and sources said top Democrats urged her appointment. If Mr. Cherry were running as an incumbent, if he had time to make his own proposals and assert himself in the office, the entire dynamics of the race, even facing the bad economy, might be different, they said. But Ms. Granholm never got the call, and some Democrats feel Mr. Obama deserves the blame.
– Almost no top Democratic grandee wants either House Speaker Andy Dillon or Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero to be the candidate. If they could pick anyone to run it would be U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Lansing), but so far she expresses no interest. They fear that both Mr. Dillon and Mr. Bernero are coated with too many negatives to make a successful run. But who does that leave? Various sources say the emphasis seems to be on finding a candidate with no heavy Lansing connections, someone who cannot now be tied to the problems over which government founders.
– Whether Mr. Cherry’s departure makes the Republican effort easier or harder in November is not worth worrying about at this point. What it does do is mean the GOP candidates will have to focus on themselves now. With the most tangible symbol of an ongoing Granholm administration now out of the race, the candidates will have to, for at least the primary season, spend more time hammering each other than they will the governor. The winner of the primary battle will have plenty of time to slam the current chief executive during the general election.
– Finally, with Mr. Cherry gone it is noteworthy that two senior political leaders, one from each party, have taken themselves out of contention for the residence on Lansing’s Oxford Street. Last year Oakland County Executive L. Brooks Patterson decided not to run. What would an election between Mr. Cherry and Mr. Patterson have been like, a race between two seasoned, indisputably wise (yes, Brooks is wise, not just a wiseacre) candidates whose primary focus has always been results and not ideology? We cannot know by reason; we can only reckon by faith what it might have been, and we can hope that whomever each party tosses onto the stage this autumn approaches the knowledge, experience and ability of these two leaders in asking the voters for their trust.
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2 responses so far ↓
1 Dan Wholihan // Jan 8, 2010 at 11:48 am
I am quite surprised by this. I thought Cherry is actually much stronger than his polling numbers indicate. Somewhat like Dick Posthumus actually. Before I’m laughed at for saying this, if the “can’t win” talkers and pundits actually believe, or least SAID they believed (even if they didn’t) that Posthumus could win, we would have a different governor today. Posthumus only lost by 4% against the “unstoppable” Granholm, when most predicted a 13% win. I expected a repeat of 1990 John Engler.
I don’t think Dillon gets past the primary, but if he does, I think he loses by 8% against anyone but Snyder (outsourcing). The left is mad at him. The right would not accept him for his tax increases. The populist middle see him as an insider and part of the Granholm team, regardless of the inside baseball rifts that are going on between them.
Virg Bernero would be interesting. He has some Lansing experience and negatives, but he knows how to win tough campaigns. If I owned a signmaking business, I’d be ecstatic, since Virg is always running for some office it seems. Hey, it worked for Stabenow in the 90′s.
2 Sylvias McCollough // Jan 10, 2010 at 4:35 pm
There’s nothing quite like political campaigns! In my 40 or so years in politics, I’ve seen some strange things, and this year is no exception. I did not however, expect John Cherry to pull the plug this early in the game. I would think that over the past 8 years John and his people should have been able to put together a credible, basic, hard hitting, and credible State wide campaign; and a solid finance Committee. Having said that, if a candidate with the experience and long time connections of a John Cherry can’t manage to pull it together in the timeframe he’s had, how in the world will a Virg Benero do it in 10 months!
It’s a sad day for the Democrats I’m afraid. While the events, strategies, successes, and failures of past campaigns may be highly instructive and fascinating, each campaign has its own heart and soul. Frankly, I never felt Cherry’s campaign had either; for whatever reason, John’s campaign just didn’t seem able to “touch” the inner soul of supporters, needed for a hard hitting and winning campaign.
It’s too bad, because I sincerely believe that John would make an excellent governor, based on his many years of experience and the political savvy he’s garnered during his years as a public servant.
If nothing else, we’ve learned the hard way, that Experience does count in running a State budget, government, appointing the best people, and instituting meaningful policies.
Michigan can’t afford another “on the Job trainee” in 2011, but it looks like that’s what we’re all stuck with if someone solid doesn’t step up to the plate and accept the responsibility of the Democrat nominee.
Time’s running out……it’s tough to put together a Statewide organization in ten months, and raise the millions of dollars it will take to conduct a strong media campaign, especially for anyone who has virtually no name ID with the Voters.
Political support must be nurtured, identified, recruited, and activated. Limited capital must be optimized by those who understand how best to use it. Campaigns, often under the most chaotic and emotionally charged conditions must be managed, and even under the best of times, this is an overwhelming job. But for a candidate with only ten months to organize….with no name ID, no War Chest, its going to be almost impossible for any of the prospective candidates to launch a winning campaign either in November or August. Without a lot of experienced, committed campaign veterans and political operatives willing to get involved in the pulling together a fast, hard hitting, and responsive organization, ASAP, I doubt if any unknown would make it through the General, let alone a contested Primary.
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