Columns

John Lindstrom
Gongwer News Service

Legendary Political and Racial Gamesmanship

January 27, 2012

Politicians love to say they don’t engage in speculation, but that is utter hoo-haw. Politics is based as much on speculation as the growing corn is based on…fertilizer, shall we say. The whole act of becoming a candidate, of running for office, of plotting strategy and of governing, relies on speculation. So let us speculate a bit.

Suppose, just suppose, that when the 113th Congress convenes in January 2013 there are no minority members from Michigan. Suppose, just suppose, that for the first time in 60 years Michigan’s delegation to Congress, specifically to the U.S. House of Representatives, consists of all white folks.

It could happen, at least speculatively.

Or suppose that Michigan, which in 1964 became the first state to have two congressional members who were black, goes back to having one minority member. Again, it could happen, at least speculatively.

Should it happen, it will occur in August and not in November. It will happen in the primary election. And it will happen, speculating only, because Michigan has lost a congressional seat and the districts redrawn by the Republican-controlled legislature allow the chance that a white candidate could defeat a minority incumbent in the primary in districts where it is more likely elephants could fly than Republicans will win the general election.

And should and if and might and possibly it happens, it means that a white Democrat will defeat a minority Democrat. In part because of this uncomfortable possibility, the supposition that Michigan would have no minority members of Congress has become sort of the thing that cannot be spoken. Everyone in politics at any level knows it could happen, yet no one really wishes to speak of it.

What also is not spoken is what it might mean if after nearly 60 years there are no minorities from Michigan in Congress.

Michigan now has two minority members in the U.S. House: U.S. Rep. John Conyers (D-Detroit), who has served continuously since he was first elected in 1964 (though he did take an unsuccessful flyer to challenge then-Detroit Mayor Coleman Young and lost in the primary) and U.S. Rep. Hansen Clarke (D-Detroit), serving his first term after defeating former U.S. Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick in the 2010 primary. Mr. Clarke is both African American and of Asian heritage.

If you are taking betting odds that Michigan will see both men defeated, the odds right now, still six months before the primary, aren’t high. But neither are the odds particularly good right now that both will win their primaries .

Before looking at the current reality, a bit of quick history. Former U.S. Rep. Charles Diggs Jr. was the first black member of Congress elected from Michigan, in 1954. He defeated a sitting representative in the primary, then went on to easily beat the Republican candidate (who was the son of the Detroit Free Press publisher).

His career in Congress ended in disgrace after being convicted of taking kickbacks. He resigned after being censured by the full House (and with a freshman representative from Georgia named Newt Gingrich starting an expulsion drive against him).

After he left, former U.S. Judge George Crockett served in the House, then former state representative and Detroit Council member Barbara Rose Collins and then Ms. Kilpatrick (who defeated Ms. Collins in a tough primary).

Mr. Conyers has, as pointed out, served without interruption, though he did run for Detroit mayor, and his wife has served on the Detroit council (and has run into her own legal issues). In the House, Mr. Conyers led the defense of former President Bill Clinton during his impeachment. As chair, when Democrats led the chamber, of the House Judiciary Committee he also has been a target of conservatives nationwide.

Which takes us to the present day.

Everyone knows that Michigan was the only state to lose population in the 2010 census, which meant it was one of several states to lose seats in Congress (something it has done for four consecutive censuses). And Detroit lost so much population it could barely support one House member on its own.

Also, it was understood the state had to have lines drawn that could support, at least in theory, two minority members. So the legislature carved Detroit like a rather badly chopped chicken breast, and threw large sections of Wayne County, including Livonia, into the 13th district, and large largely minority sections of Oakland County into the 14th district.

Oh, and since we were losing a seat, the legislature put pressure on U.S. Rep. Gary Peters (D-Bloomfield Hills) to decide whom he wanted to face in a primary.

Technically, Mr. Peters and U.S. Rep. Sander Levin (D-Royal Oak) share the 9th district. But Mr. Peters, with just two terms, did not want to face Mr. Levin, who is the former House Ways and Means chair and is now its ranking member. Plus, Mr. Peters represented much of the Oakland sections of the 14th district when he was in the legislature, so he figured he had a better shot in the 14th district, so that is where he is running.

He is running there, though right now he does not live in the district. But neither, unless he moved recently, does Mr. Clarke, who has also decided to run in the 14th district.

Mr. Conyers does live in the 14th district, but he has decided to run from the 13th district.

Now here’s where it gets interesting. Also running in the 13th are Sen. Glenn Anderson (D-Livonia) and Sen. Bert Johnson (D-Detroit). Mr. Anderson is white and Mr. Johnson is black.

The thinking is that Mr. Johnson might siphon off enough black voters to hurt Mr. Conyers, while Mr. Anderson will get most of the votes in Livonia and more heavily white areas of the district.

The same dynamic applies in the growing confusion in the 14th district. Added now to the Peters/Clarke battle is Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence and then former state Rep. Mary Waters (who herself nearly beat Ms. Kilpatrick in 2008 during the depths of the scandal surrounding Ms. Kilpatrick’s son, Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick). Both women are black and both are, ah, women, of course.

The political games-playing and speculation (oh, you knew that was going to come up) are potentially legend. Detroit is overwhelmingly minority in population (which should work to Mr. Clarke and Mr. Conyers favor) but is also famous for low turnouts, which could hurt them. Mr. Peters is well known in Southfield, but Ms. Lawrence could undercut him. Mr. Anderson is backing legislation that would make it easier to check a lawmaker’s attendance, which Mr. Johnson thinks is targeted at him because he missed a lot of time in the Senate when he was recovering from injuries.

But as was said at the beginning, so many elements of these races are bothersome.

It’s not just that the potential exists for both minority members to lose. It is also the fact that now we begin to deal more directly with racial politics up close and personal.

Interestingly, so far the only direct appeal to any identifiable group has come from Ms. Lawrence, and she is targeting women. Her early call is to elect a Democratic woman from Michigan, a call that could be tripped up by the presence of Ms. Waters.

Mr. Conyers is working hard against the idea of emergency managers, both potentially in Detroit and with the Highland Park schools. There is an implied racial aspect in that, since critics of the emergency manager law charge it targets communities that have large minority communities, but it is also good old-time hometown politics that draws the constituents to a candidate.

Mr. Peters and Mr. Clarke are both right now arguing overall effectiveness.

But in the end we will have to analyze how voters deal with overt questions: are these simply matters of who are the most effective politicians and they will be voted on in that way? Or is there something else at play? And is it wrong to vote for someone because the voter and candidate share certain characteristics and possibly certain experiences? That goes beyond racial and gender questions. In 1982, after all, Mario Cuomo used to tell Italian voters in New York it was time one of them became governor.

All this is speculation, of course, which politicians always like to claim they will not do.

There is no speculating, however, that whatever happens in August will indelibly mark Michigan politics.

John Lindstrom is publisher of Gongwer News Service. For more than 50 years in Michigan, Gongwer News Service has provided independent, comprehensive, accurate and timely coverage of issues in and around Michigan’s government and political systems. For subscription information, including a free trial, visit Gongwer online.