Blood on the Campaign Trail

by John Lindstrom
Gongwer News Service
February 19, 2010

On Saturday, February 13, when they should have been otherwise engaged in buying flowers and candy for Valentine’s Day, friends and associates of former Governor James Blanchard started getting text messages telling them that Bob Bowman had decided not to seek the Democratic nomination for governor. It was hardly the token of love many Democrats had hoped for.

Meanwhile, Republicans have already begun violating Ronald Reagan’s 11th Commandment of partisan brotherly love, to the point that gubernatorial candidates are already calling in the cops (so to say) to try and arrest the campaign trash talk.

Ahhh, the days are growing longer, spring is coming and there’s romance in the air. Well, actually, that fragrance detectable in the atmosphere is not the roseate perfume of love, but the musky, heady, sweaty odor of electoral politics.

Anyone who has paid the least attention to politics in the last, oh, two decades (three decades? Four? Wait, when was Woodrow Wilson president?) knew this scenario would happen. And, it’s happening right on schedule. In fact, given recent political trends, it could be argued it’s happening a little late.

The first blood was drawn in this election some time ago, at least at the beginning of January when Lt. Governor John Cherry Jr. stunned everyone by pulling out of the gubernatorial race. Since that moment the dynamics at the gubernatorial political level have changed and driven down two different tracks.

First the Democrats: their struggle is to figure out who will be their field of candidates. Since Mr. Cherry abandoned the struggle, the only definite new candidate is Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero. House Speaker Andy Dillon (D-Redford Twp.) has created an exploratory committee and, according to a variety of sources, is telling party officials that he is close to already raising $1 million and is readying a campaign structure. Should be good, right? Take those two along with Rep. Alma Wheeler-Smith (D-Salem Twp.) and the Dems should be all set for a hearty partisan donnybrook, right?

No. Top Democrats are bereft at the thought of a Dillon/Bernero (okay, and Smith) lineup. No kidding, they are sweating through their five-day deodorant pads at the thought.

Mr. Dillon has isolated most of organized labor, and the liberal Democrats are furious at him for his disastrous budget deal with Republicans. Mr. Bernero has energy, drive, passion (okay so far), maybe a little too much populism for the general electorate (that could be dealt with), but he has, well, Shakespeare said it best: “I would that my horse had the speed of your tongue.” Democrats worry that they won’t have enough bandages to staunch Mr. Bernero’s bleeding feet if he shoots them as often as they fear he will.

So Democrats had crossed their fingers and hoped great hopes that someone else (and, if possible, someone with money, because the state’s campaign matching fund is effectively broke) would come into the race. Someone without heavy political baggage that would weigh them down in the campaign.

Denise Ilitch was one big hope, but she decided there wasn’t enough time to mount an effective campaign.

Then they hoped Mr. Bowman, the former state treasurer and current online umpire of Major League Baseball, would take up the colors and run. When he filed a campaign committee, because he had spent money coming into the state to court interest, one might have thought there had been an Elvis sighting with all the excitement.

But then the text messages started coming on Saturday, followed by a surprise public statement issued Monday morning. Mr. Bowman has not said publicly why he decided not to run. There is talk that he may become the next baseball commissioner, but the most likely reason now is that relocating his family from Connecticut, so he could erase the part-time resident status critics would hang on him, was too difficult.

(And while top Democrats had hoped either Ms. Ilitch or Mr. Bowman would have run, substantial whispering campaigns had already begun. Ms. Ilitch, some said, was “an empty dress.” Mr. Bowman not only wasn’t a full-time resident, he was the guy that brought you that, albeit temporary, 38-percent tax increase in 1983).

So now, officials wait and hope that former Genesee Country Treasurer Dan Kildee will get into the game. Mr. Kildee talks like a candidate, with requisite caution. He has government and campaign experience, labor likes him, Genesee County likes him (no small thing in a Democratic primary). What he does not have is money. He also has the added disadvantage of having just started a new think tank on community development that he spent years developing. He has already made it clear that if running for governor means folding the think tank, then somebody else can run for the state ranch house on Lansing’s Oxford Street.

So the leftover Valentine’s candy Democrats are crunching on is their fingernails as they wait to see what their final lineup will be. In that, they are sharing their diet with Republicans who are suddenly all atwitter over the growing nastiness of their race.

This too had been expected with Mr. Cherry’s drop-out. Republicans were hoping they could still spend some time hammering Mr. Cherry as the successor to Governor Jennifer Granholm, but his departure meant the GOP candidates for governor now had to focus on each other to build support and win votes.

Since the candidates — Attorney General Mike Cox, Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, U.S. Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-Holland), Ann Arbor business exec Rick Snyder and Sen. Tom George (R-Kalamazoo) — agree on the broad perspectives of their campaign policies, they have separated themselves elsewise.

Politicians tend to believe that just flashing a winning smile is no longer enough to guarantee victory. When dentistry doesn’t work, turn to butchery. So already the knives are out, and it has gotten to the point where Mr. Hoekstra has called on Mr. Cox to investigate the legality of a shadow company’s ads against him. Mr. Bouchard has likewise raised complaints about ads against him from a group that also targeted Mr. Snyder.

Mr. Snyder’s campaign has alleged that Mr. Cox’s supporters are behind the attacks, which Mr. Cox’s spokespersons have denied.

For his own part, Mr. Snyder has criticized all his opponents in his TV ad calling himself a nerd. In it, he trumpets his detailed Michigan recovery plan and doubts a politician could understand it (no offense to Mr. Snyder, but the plan ain’t that hard to follow).

Publicly, Republicans hope the bloodbath is short-lived and everyone will be passing the chocolates soon as the state sits back for a polite, pleasant partisan parley on policy. Privately, they know the chopping and hacking will only get worse.

This, for the time being, creates a tactical problem for them: while the Democrats are still trying to put together their lineup, no Democrat is publicly attacking the other potential candidates. The longer the Republicans have the bloody field to themselves, the more they worry they both provide the Democrats fodder for the November race and run themselves so ragged they make their candidates unattractive.

Can you feel the love? No? Imagine that. Well, St. Patrick’s Day is coming up; maybe the candidates are showing their Irish early.

John Lindstrom is publisher of Gongwer News Service. For nearly 50 years in Michigan, Gongwer News Service has provided independent, comprehensive, accurate and timely coverage of issues in and around Michigan’s government and political systems. For subscription information, including a free trial, visit Gongwer online.