Delegation Shakeup

by John Lindstrom
Gongwer News Service
April 16, 2010

Employing the Max Bialystock school of accounting (Max being the mad genius producer of “The Producers”), we recall that electoral politics is 50 percent campaigning, 50 percent fundraising, 50 percent opposition research, 50 percent soundbites, 50 percent polling, 50 percent advertising, 50 percent negative campaigning, 50 percent complaining about negative campaigning, 50 percent half-witted analysis and 100 percent baseless and fruitless speculation.

Having just celebrated the national holiday of accounting, otherwise known as tax day, the time is ripe to dust off some analysis and speculating. The status quo of life, not just politics, is ongoing change, and the dynamics of the political scene have changed mightily in the last two weeks.

Begin with the surprising decision of U.S. Rep. Bart Stupak (D-Menominee) to step down from office. His expected race in the 1st U.S. House district had the potential of becoming an epic campaign, once he had been launched into the national psyche following the passage of the health care act.

But as the days drew closer to the May 11 filing deadline, that was the issue: the campaign had the potential to be epic. Because for all the national attention Mr. Stupak and his candidacy had drawn, one thing it had not yet drawn was a top Republican to challenge him. There was some time yet for opponents to show themselves, but the time was drawing short. That meant that while Mr. Stupak was still in for a fight, the chances he would not have been re-elected were slim.

Until reports began to surface that U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was personally asking Mr. Stupak not to retire, Democrats were relatively assured he was going to make the run once more. So his retirement decision a week ago legitimately was a surprise.

Despite his assurances that the threats made against him, and the warnings of a massive campaign, played no role in his decision to retire, it seems hard to think they were not a factor. Threats against him personally he probably did not worry about, but worries about his family and what they may have had to go through would race through any normal man’s head in this situation.

Before looking at the dynamics of the potential race, consider for a moment that Michigan is going to undergo one of its most dramatic changes in congressional representation in decades. At least three new members of the U.S. House will come from Michigan because the 1st (Mr. Stupak’s seat), the 2nd (now held by Republican gubernatorial candidate U.S. Pete Hoekstra of Holland) and the 3rd (now held by retiring Republican U.S. Rep. Vern Ehlers) are coming vacant. That amounts to more than 50 years of congressional seniority the state will lose.

Add to that the expected tight races U.S. Rep. Mark Schauer (D-Battle Creek) in the 7th and U.S. Rep. Gary Peters (D-Bloomfield Twp.) in the 9th will face (and in mid-April it looks like those seats could both go Republican), the state faces the chance of having five different members of the U.S. House come January.

That’s before the impact of the 2010 census will have on redistricting is even calculated. Michigan has to expect to lose one House seat at a minimum in 2012, and may lose two (the worrying thought that it could lose three seems a bit far-fetched, but, frankly, cannot be completely dismissed). That guarantees a potential titanic struggle over drawing the lines. The regular folks may not think about this much, but it is heavy on the minds of party professionals and assures us that teeth and claws are being honed to razor sharpness for the fight for legislative seats and the governor’s chair.

The open 1st District also dramatically changes planning for both parties. Democrats have to put an even greater effort into a race they had hoped would be easy. Republicans now really have to gear up for a race they were going to fight, but probably wasn’t high on their potential win column. It will affect fundraising and strategy planning for both parties since it is a seat winnable, at least on paper, by both parties.

The congressional stew of surprises has drawn some attention away from the broiling red meat in the gubernatorial campaign. There’s sizzle in both the Democratic and Republican races.

With fewer candidates, the Democrats are easier to examine first. After Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero stepped up with a number of shots at House Speaker Andy Dillon, the Redford Township Democrat had enough of it and fired back with a shot of his own: name who was invited to a fundraiser held by Financial and Insurance Commissioner Ken Ross. Eventually who showed up to the fundraiser would have been released under campaign finance, but this was an interesting pre-emptive strike on Mr. Dillon’s part — because only those who showed would have been released, and calling out the names of invitees could help challenge Mr. Bernero’s claim as champion of the regular guy.

Adding to the game, and to his credit, Mr. Bernero didn’t flinch and ordered the names released. He also tossed down the gauntlet to Mr. Dillon to do the same at his fundraisers. Some insurance names were on the list of invitees to Mr. Bernero’s do, but don’t expect much to be made of that until later in the race.

On the Republican side, Mr. Hoekstra, despite a still relatively low-key campaign, is riding atop polls at this point. That is not too surprising given his geographic advantage and overall strategy. He is the only major candidate from the western part of the state (yes, yes, we’re not forgetting Sen. Tom George of Kalamazoo), where one typically is baptized Republican at birth. His campaign is counting on Attorney General Mike Cox, Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard and Ann Arbor business executive Rick Snyder trashing each other thoroughly in Southeast Michigan and leaving a clear field to he in the west. It’s one reason why Secretary of State Terri Land’s role in the Bouchard campaign is so important to the sheriff.

Mr. Hoekstra also has the added advantage of contested Republican primaries in two congressional seats in the west, his included, which will drive up GOP voters in August and likely help him out as a side-thought.

So, Mr. Cox has opened up his campaign focusing mostly on Mr. Hoekstra. Speaking to reporters following a tea party rally, he was sharply critical of Mr. Hoekstra, saying his congressional votes don’t reflect the values of Michigan Republicans.

But Mr. Cox also started getting questions related to one place, one issue, that Republicans, especially out-state Republicans, love to rail on: Detroit. Specifically, allegations that calls to a 911 operator about the infamous, legendary, yet-to-be-proved “party” at the Manoogian Mansion during former Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick’s first years in office were quashed, suddenly came up. Mr. Cox announced nearly eight years ago there was no evidence of such a party, and he finds himself now defending that move.

His defense is legally plausible — there was no evidence of a party and without evidence he could not act, he said — but it could be politically weak if his opponents all use it against him during the upcoming bloodletting.

One surprise at this point in the GOP race is that Mr. Bouchard’s campaign has been relatively quiet. He has appeared at tea parties, made some headway in straw polls, run statewide efforts to promote his tax proposals, yet for someone who ran statewide just four years ago and has Ms. Land at his side, his campaign has not caught fire. Even his supporters have started grumbling that for him to have a major shot at winning he has to begin a breakout from the rest of the pack relatively soon.

Finally, why not give into useless and baseless speculation? Again about the governor’s race: Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens is retiring, Governor Jennifer Granholm is on the list of potential successors, though considered unlikely to be named.

Let’s just say, however, that President Barack Obama decides to name Ms. Granholm and do so within the next week to help her prepare for her confirmation battle. Let us further uselessly speculate that she resigns immediately so that she can focus herself on that battle. That makes Lt. Governor John Cherry Michigan’s new governor.

With little more than two weeks before the May 11 filing deadline, does Mr. Cherry now decide to gather signatures and run as the incumbent for election?

Useless speculation, which these days provides 100-percent mindless political entertainment.

John Lindstrom is publisher of Gongwer News Service. For nearly 50 years in Michigan, Gongwer News Service has provided independent, comprehensive, accurate and timely coverage of issues in and around Michigan’s government and political systems. For subscription information, including a free trial, visit Gongwer online.