Blood in the Pool

by John Lindstrom
Gongwer News Service
May 14, 2010

From the surprises and the mysteries of campaign filing day, in Michigan the political equivalent to the NFL draft, one thing and one thing only was clear: one of seven men…okay, possibly an eighth…will be Michigan’s 48th governor come noon on January 1, 2011.

The only chance that Governor Jennifer Granholm could be succeeded by another woman vanished when Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith (D-Salem Twp.) announced one day before the May 11 filing deadline she would not run for the Democratic nomination out of fear that she would make it easier for House Speaker Andy Dillon (D-Redford Twp.) to win. She was more politic, but ultimately that was the concern: that she would split the vote with Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero and leave the more moderate-conservative-seeming Mr. Dillon the nominee.

So unless former U.S. Rep. Joe Schwarz decides to get into the race as an independent, the field belongs to this water polo team (’cause water polo fields seven players a side, mildly unsettling as that image may be — should Mr. Schwarz actually decide to run, we can call the lineup an arena football team, at least): Mr. Bernero and Mr. Dillon for the Democrats, and then Attorney General Mike Cox, U.S. Rep. Pete Hoekstra of Holland, Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, Ann Arbor business executive Rick Snyder and Sen. Tom George of Kalamazoo on the Republican side.

Officially, since the candidates have filed, the campaign for the nominations is open. But the months and weeks leading up to the filing deadline had opened the playbook several times, so in the 10 weeks remaining before the primary what seems clear?

Start with the Republicans, where evidently Mr. Cox has decided the contest is simply between himself and Mr. Hoekstra, with a mild chance of Mr. Snyder and Mr. Bouchard intercepting the ball.

Having launched the first sharply negative parley, directly at Mr. Hoekstra during the East Lansing debate several weeks ago, Mr. Cox followed with an ad on filing day attacking Mr. Hoekstra again. Days later Mr. Hoekstra riposted with an ad building himself up, while delivering an unsubtle jab at Mr. Cox.

Here’s the real interesting thing, though: Mr. Cox got more of a response on his ad from others than he did from Mr. Hoekstra. First, Mr. Snyder’s campaign charged that one of the people in the ad, a Snyder supporter, was wrongly portrayed as a Cox supporter and demanded the ad be pulled. Then the Michigan Infrastructure and Transportation Association demanded the ad be pulled because it criticized Mr. Hoekstra for voting for a federal transportation bill that actually pumped a ton of money into Michigan.

Going straight on the attack with one’s first ad tends to skew the standard operating procedure that calls for a candidate to introduce himself in the first ad.

Instead, Mr. Cox’s ad neatly summarizes what one must expect of this campaign, which is a lot of blood in the pool.

The pleas for a campaign focused on issues ignore the reality that for Republicans there is just one issue: replacing Ms. Granholm. The whole campaign in the fall, whoever the GOP winner is, will focus on, “I’m not Jennifer Granholm.”

Every one of the Republican candidates agrees on the need to cut taxes and spending. There are nuanced differences on other issues, but on the main issue every one of the five is in essential agreement.

So, Mr. Cox theoretically said, why play nice when no matter how much we agree we will all be coated with mud? He is calling himself a fighter for the state, so why not fight your way to the top? At least, he will be a little free of mud for a moment while launching the first volley, and that may be enough to keep him standing in the public mind a moment longer than the others.

Which makes Mr. Snyder’s decision not to participate in the remaining state Republican debates interesting as well.

His action has raised calls of the need for all the candidates to discuss the issues and face off against each other in debate. But again, in so many ways the only issue Republicans are worried about is who can be the best anti-Granholm, and the debates could end up mostly a slap session.

Mr. Snyder was clearly angry following the East Lansing debate. One could tell he sensed he had been set up and he was wounded by what he called “lies” about him.

So avoiding those debates sets an interesting strategic plan. Remember, one reason why many top business executives wanted Mr. Snyder to run was to have a candidate not drowning in the ongoing intraparty fights over issue purity. The hope was that by being someone not caught up in the ongoing cycle that seems to produce little if anything, Mr. Snyder would be seen as a new hope for the state. His attraction is supposed to be that he is not a regular politician; therefore, why take the chance of being labeled a regular politician by close association?

Could such a strategy work? Well, if Mr. Snyder wins, that answers that question.

On the Democratic side the problem Mr. Bernero and Mr. Dillon have is more complex: how to be the new Democrat in an anti-Democratic year? How to be seen as true to what most Democrats see as their values while attracting voters openly hostile to Democrats and whatever values they claim?

More troubling is how to do that without having Republicans say they are both being Republican-lite in their efforts? (And the Republicans will also say why go lite when you can get the real thing?)

Both Mr. Dillon and Mr. Bernero have highlighted their fiscal responsibility, seeking new ways of balancing budgets without tax increases, looking for new ways to attract businesses to the state. In other words, strategies Republicans could proclaim as well.

Which made the charge that Michigan Republicans leveled when Ms. Smith left the race moderately puzzling. In their release, they said unions had forced the only Democratic “moderate” out of the primary. One seriously doubts Ms. Smith would embrace the term moderate to begin with, and moderate is exactly the role Mr. Dillon has claimed for himself at a minimum. In fact, as earlier alluded to, Ms. Smith dropped out in hopes of shorting the moderate’s chance of winning the nomination.

Of course, the real reason for the charge isn’t puzzling at all, it is one more effort to sharpen the differences between the parties and ensure there is no voter confusion as to who is a Republican and who is a Democrat.

Which anyone who has watched a water polo match — where Speedo-clad mega jocks thrash in water and through the waves and splashing and ball zipping back and forth so that except for the different headgear it’s hard to tell one team from the other — could relate to the upcoming primary campaign. In the end, the winners will be recognized because they will actually get a clean towel with which to dry off.

John Lindstrom is publisher of Gongwer News Service. For nearly 50 years in Michigan, Gongwer News Service has provided independent, comprehensive, accurate and timely coverage of issues in and around Michigan’s government and political systems. For subscription information, including a free trial, visit Gongwer online.