Too Cool to Call

by John Lindstrom
Gongwer News Service
July 9, 2010

The hottest days of summer have arrived, when the tomato plants luxuriate in the blistering heat, the backyard gardens begin to groan with rapidly ripening produce, and all those without access to a lakeside cottage mutter jealous oaths at all those who come in on Mondays prattling about how wonderful the lake was. It is summer in full, including skimpy, hot-weather dress, so how come the gubernatorial campaign feels like it is still early May?

It is some three weeks to the August 3 primary. By now, Michigan voters should be sick of the candidates to succeed Governor Jennifer Granholm, weary of their TV ads, fed up with their mailings, furious at their robocalls. Above all, the voters should be mostly settled about who they will vote for on primary day.

But the seven men vying to succeed Ms. Granholm — Republicans Attorney General Mike Cox, Senator Tom George, U.S. Rep. Pete Hoekstra, Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard and Ann Arbor business executive Rick Snyder, along with Democrats Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero and House Speaker Andy Dillon — have hardly made a dent on the summer conscience. So the voters have been given a rare chance to weed the garden, play a round of golf, go fishing and drink their beer in peace.

But while the campaign’s calendar may somehow still be reading early May, the signs for a sudden warmup are clear. And if the populace doesn’t want to be completely confounded by August 3, they had better hope the campaign heats up quickly.

Because the political situation the state sees now is nothing less than politically astounding. It means the race right now is still completely unsettled. There is an open seat for governor, fer cryin’ out loud, and eight years ago, when the last such opportunity occurred, it was a heady fight at least on the Democratic side.

On the GOP side in 2002, former Lt. Governor Gov. Dick Posthumus was the overwhelming favorite, but he still took many slugs from then-Sen. Joe Schwarz. There were ads, there were major campaign events, debates, loyal workers sweating the heat pounding doors, campaign mailings as thick as credit card come-ons. More to the critical point, by now the race should have settled into a seeming portrait of probability as it did in 2002 on the Democratic side when then-Attorney General Granholm had the psychological lead and it remained to be seen if U.S. Rep. Dave Bonior or former Governor James Blanchard could trip her up at the end.

Today, six of the seven candidates have a reasonable shot at winning their various primaries. Six of the seven. The only candidate who seems unlikely to win is Mr. George. But, hey, if things don’t shape up and shake out quickly, he too could go into August with at least a claim to pulling an upset.

Look at the GOP side first. All of the top four candidates, and especially the top three — Mr. Hoekstra, Mr. Cox and Mr. Snyder — have strong support from key party elders. They also have chewed up and consumed a fair number of important endorsements. Mr. Cox alone can claim the Right to Life and Michigan Chamber of Commerce endorsements, but he has been shut out of a number of other key endorsements, which have been split between the other candidates.

Television ads to this point have been scattered and mostly unmemorable. Only Mr. Snyder’s first flurry of “Nerd” ads last winter can claim to have held voter attention. Until this week, Mr. Hoekstra, who has led the GOP polls for much of the race thus far, had not even really run ads (except for one meek shot in May), and Mr. Bouchard, who actually would be the choice of a number of top Republicans save for his relatively weak fundraising, has only put out a couple ads on cable television.

While the public is growing more diverse in its media consumption, television still has a power to focus and concentrate the corporate voters’ attention more powerfully than other media. And within the television universe, that impact is still most important on the classic broadcast network stations. The other cable stations — focusing on whatever, pets, gardening, Latin dancing — only get a candidate big impact when tied to the broadcast stations.

So it is now the candidates have to start dumping money into TV. To build name ID and some voter loyalty, especially when all the candidates have failed to lock in greater levels of both in the campaign to date, TV is critical. Both Mr. Hoekstra and Mr. Snyder started showing that again this week, attacking the field they had largely left to Mr. Cox (though he hadn’t exactly covered the field to this point).

Also showing up on TV will be those wonderful folks who brought you the swift boat ads in 2004. This time they are attacking Mr. Cox on the alleged party at Detroit’s Manoogian Mansion during Kwame Kilpatrick’s first year as mayor (this subject was covered several weeks ago).

Mr. Cox has privately told some supporters the alleged party will be one of his biggest weaknesses as the primary drags on. It is why he has released ads similar to those he had held, defending his record on the issue. Yet to be seen is whether any of his other opponents will start using that cudgel against him. If they do, it will have to be done soon to have any impact, and the last debate, scheduled for July 13 (though Mr. Snyder will be doing a forum that night in Grand Rapids), would be a perfect time to test that weapon.

On the Democratic side, Mr. Bernero has scored many of the biggest endorsements traditional Democrats love — the Michigan AFL-CIO, the UAW, the Michigan Education Association, the Michigan Federation of Teachers — yet who knows that? He has not put an ad up on television. While he refuses to divulge when he will go on the air, there is a sense in his call for Mr. Dillon to debate more that whatever ads he does get up may be too late to make a real impression.

A few weeks ago when the Michigan AFL-CIO outlined its strategy for getting out union voters for Mr. Bernero, it was impossible to miss the worried tone behind the outline. Mr. Dillon, the labor leaders said, is an “unacceptable” Democrat. For an “unacceptable” Democrat to be so far running ahead in the polls, to have garnered his share of major endorsements as well (the Teamsters, the Fraternal Order of Police and, rumor has it, some very important Detroit politicians) and to have had the only ads up on television is a remarkable development.

Endorsements are important, no doubt, but to be really effective they have to be tied to other campaign steps building name ID and loyalty. Hence the worry over Mr. Bernero’s efforts at this point. Are they strong enough, as far as labor is concerned, to overcome the “unacceptable” Democrat?

Setting aside the broad media campaign, where is the hardscale retail campaign to really lock down the voters? Campaign professionals across the state have remarked about how lacking the landscape is in Cox-Hoekstra-Bouchard-Dillon-Snyder-Bernero-George signs, and how light the landfills are of their mailings. Waiting too long to employ the strategy may backfire on any of the candidates. So, if things are to heat up, they should heat up in that way right soon as well.

And if the campaign stays somewhat cool, well it could make for a far more fun August 3. Prepare the grill and chill the beer now.

John Lindstrom is publisher of Gongwer News Service. For nearly 50 years in Michigan, Gongwer News Service has provided independent, comprehensive, accurate and timely coverage of issues in and around Michigan’s government and political systems. For subscription information, including a free trial, visit Gongwer online.