Governor’s Race:
August is not November

by John Lindstrom
Gongwer News Service
August 20, 2010

Does it matter really that it is August, that the warm days are still long, that the gardens are fat with melons and tomatoes?

No, because to hear the talk of the town it is past early November, it is past when the leaves are fallen and the first fires are alight in the hearth. In fact, listening to the cognoscenti it is really January and the cold winds are lashing the east steps of the Capitol, where Rick Snyder has just taken the oath of office and is Michigan’s 48th governor.

Two weeks after Mr. Snyder won the Republican gubernatorial nomination and Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero won the Democratic nomination, there is an overriding air of cocksure assumption that the people have spoken and that Mr. Snyder has nothing to do but check paint colors for the Oxford Street residence until he officially moves in.

What’s that? An election? Didn’t we just have an election, and that’s why Rick Snyder is going to be the gov…oh, that election, that little thing in November, yeah, well, everyone knows the Republicans are a slam-dunk, so what are you saying? Don’t you read Facebook, man? It’s all over Facebook that it’s all over, here, in Michigan. And Mr. Snyder is the guy, so why would you even bother me with November?

It’s not just in Facebook that Michigan residents are breathing in the air of inevitability. State bureaucrats are already psychologically trying to account for what changes Mr. Snyder will make to the office and the state, according to business types that have had meetings with state bureaucrats. Even among politicians, Democrats and Republicans both, there is an understated sense that, after the weary years of ongoing economic turmoil and the struggle Governor Jennifer Granholm has waged in combating that struggle, the public wants a change. No one person’s election alone can change the state’s fortunes, but it can at least provide a sense of hopeful change.

So it is time, more than time, in fact, to remind people to breathe oxygen, not the polluted air of assumption. The only thing inevitable politically now is that the voters will decide between Mr. Snyder and Mr. Bernero. There is much yet to occur before either man can plan on standing on the cold steps of January and raising his right hand for the oath.

Mr. Bernero certainly is not conceding the election. A video of a campaign performance in Wixom showed him full of fire while at the same time realistic of the task ahead. He knows he is behind in the polls and, more importantly, he knows he is behind in the public anticipation of who will win the election.

During that appearance he said it would take a lot of elbow grease to win in November. Okay, what else would someone expect a candidate to say, especially some 10 weeks before the election? Of course a candidate is going to proclaim confidence and urge hard work from his or her supporters.

One thing Mr. Bernero is not, however, is an actor. He’s been in tough races before. Don’t forget that even a month before the primary, the expectation was that House Speaker Andy Dillon (D-Redford) would be the Democratic nominee. Mr. Bernero knows what it is to be an underdog, and he doesn’t mind that role in the least.

However, Mr. Bernero also knows what it is to be front-runner and how to play that hand. In a very critical way, he has the advantage of experience over Mr. Snyder.

This is Mr. Snyder’s first run for office. Like Mr. Bernero, he too was the underdog, and he played that card brilliantly with some high-stakes plays that paid off. In early July, after all, the expectation was that Mr. Dillon would run for the governor’s office against either U.S. Rep. Pete Hoekstra or Attorney General Mike Cox.

Now, however, he is the front-runner, and as front-runner he has to perform one of the hardest tasks a politician can master: he has to go from now to November and not screw up. He has to be engaged but not haughty, active but not overbearing, aggressive but not mean, and show above all that he is ready to run the state should he win. In the end, Mr. Snyder might wish he had the underdog title, because the same steadying rules that govern front-runners don’t necessarily apply to underdogs.

And, remembering that it is still August, both men have a big task ahead of them, and that is to shore up the necessary votes. Again, it sounds obvious but it is more complicated.

In Mr. Snyder’s case that means he has to hold onto, or at least not lose too many, conservatives. Go back to reading Facebook. Conservatives are moaning. They do have some justification to moan, since while Mr. Snyder won by a good percentage over his four opponents, his four opponents still gathered some 60 percent of the total vote. The big question now is will conservatives vote for Mr. Snyder, who is suspect as far as they are concerned. They don’t trust him on the central issues they care about, such as abortion and gun rights. They want a Republican to win, but to them, Mr. Snyder has to convince them he is a Republican. They may be happy to mouth Ronald Reagan’s dictate that he who agrees with you 80 percent of the time is your friend, but frankly, they worry more about the 20 percent of you they see as a traitor.

“The election will be a slam-dunk for Republicans, just not for conservatives,” one such advocate groused on Facebook.

That is one reason why conservatives, helped by tea partiers, have been trying to flood the county party conventions, to ensure the GOP stays conservative no matter the ideological bent of the nominal head of the party.

At the same time, Mr. Snyder cannot accommodate the conservatives too much and risk alienating the independents and crossover Democrats who support him. His whole entrance into the race was a way of trying to stay out of the fatal fight of conservative versus liberal without anyone appealing to the middle. He has to keep some conservatives, he has to keep some of the base, but not so much to lose the core voter demographic.

Mr. Bernero has a similar issue, though in his case the base — labor and progressive groups — are secure. He also needs the independent and more moderate/conservative Democrats that so far are leaning towards Mr. Snyder. It appears his strategy is already in place: make Mr. Snyder appear a front for Wall Street, currently being reviled by all Democrats for the state of the economy.

While the conservatives don’t think they can trust Mr. Snyder on their core issues, Mr. Bernero needs to build the same suspicion on his opponent in order to bring his voters back. One top official in the Granholm administration said recently, “Democrats think they can trust a Republican and they always find out Republicans will hurt you.” Mr. Bernero needs to drive that message while at the same time convincing Democrats and others he can work within divided government to turn the state around.

So, exhale that air of inevitability. Enjoy the balmy last days of summer, for the fall fight should be full of frosty fun and there are a good couple of months of political intrigue ahead before either man gets to honestly declare victory.

John Lindstrom is publisher of Gongwer News Service. For nearly 50 years in Michigan, Gongwer News Service has provided independent, comprehensive, accurate and timely coverage of issues in and around Michigan’s government and political systems. For subscription information, including a free trial, visit Gongwer online.