Budget Aftermath: Signs, Portents and Guns

by Gongwer News Service
November 6, 2009

Signs and portents and guns, and all of them part of the state of affairs in the state these few days after Governor Jennifer Granholm signed the final budget bills for 2009-10 — which, as everyone concludes, finalized nothing.

There are hopeful signs for the economy, but they do not promise anything too good too soon, as there are also ominous signs of greater budget cuts. There are political portents for a year from now, but portending what in the end? And there is the suggestion that guns for some public servants may be sort of an answer for what worries them.

Overplaying her hand, Ms. Granholm possibly undermined her own strategy on the budget. Senate Republicans refused to move on raising revenues other than those they had already approved dealing largely with the earned income tax credit and the film tax credit. Ms. Granholm was unwilling to risk the prospect of greater pain on the public needing state services, so she signed the remaining budget bills. In the telephone conference call where she announced her actions she sounded worn and weary and disgusted.

But she also promised the fight would go on to restore some of the cuts by restoring some revenues, and immediately began her renewed campaign, traveling to different spots in the state arguing for the public to push the legislature to raise revenues.

And as she stepped up the fight there were signs the public was responding to the call, both locally and in the capital, to demand a change to the budget. Pick up any newspaper in the state (okay, fine, click on the links to any newspaper in the state) and you will see the signs: school officials in Jackson talking about consolidations, school officials in Kalamazoo saying the state had failed education, prison guards protesting cuts in the Upper Peninsula, school officials in suburban Lansing warning of closings and layoffs, high school students marching on the Capitol to protest the loss of the Promise Grant, officials at Michigan State University announcing cuts, layoffs and closures.

Meanwhile, with one Medicaid recipient already dying of an untreated oral infection, dentists are demanding the state restore Medicaid funding for adult dental treatment. In a suburban Detroit church the director of several religious-based retirement homes warned the congregation the budget will cut more than $700,000 in Medicaid funds from her operations.

And facing the possibility of another 300 layoffs of case workers, current Department of Human Services case workers told a House committee they were honestly afraid for their safety because of burgeoning threats of violence from recipients frustrated by long delays in the overburdened system.

Yet, comes the dawn? Are there actual signs the economy may be slugging off the recession mantle? Two weeks ago, economists (insert the joke: “who have correctly predicted 12 of the last three recessions”) said national economic growth meant the economy was now out of recession. Ford Motor Company surprised everyone with the announcement of a third-quarter profit. Both Ford and General Motors announced sales gains in October (and GM outsold Toyota). Economists at Moody’s Investors Services said 11 states are coming out of recession, and though Michigan is not one of those it still has some hopeful signals.

Even Ms. Granholm’s administration suddenly issued some mixed signals on future revenues when it did a bit of a two-step on the layoffs of some State Police troopers — first saying it would not recall them to work in the continued economic uncertainty, then relenting after some legislators called it a broken budget promise.

But those hopeful signs also came slamming into more worrisome forecasts, as Ms. Granholm ordered departments to prepare to cut their budgets in the upcoming 2010-11 fiscal year by 20 percent. That number caused even some business people who have called on the state to cut more spending to take a breath and wonder what that would mean.

Some quick arithmetic: if the current general fund budget approaches $9 billion, 20 percent is $1.8 billion. The current higher education budget is roughly $1.6 billion. So, in theory, the state could spend not a single penny, not one copper, on its public universities in 2010-11 and still be $200 million short.

In the midst of this talk a special election was held to fill a Senate vacancy, and Republicans came away smiling. And why not? Nothing favors the party out of favor like a good economic crisis. Perhaps the GOP message (which, depending on who one talks to, is either “limited government and lower taxes” or “we’re not Democrats”) is, in fact, resonating with voters. If so, it could spell trouble for Democrats in a year’s time. Clearly, Democrats worry about the gubernatorial election and Republicans are exultant in anticipation. But in politics a year is 365 days too far away, and whatever happens with the economy, with the world state, with public policy, with whatever during that year will be more predictive of final voting results.

In all this stew of numbers and politics, cuts and hopes, there was a moment that had to make one stop and think about where the world is coming or going.

During the same hearing when DHS workers worried about their safety, several legislators gave possible answers. One was kinda obvious: get a better economy, then more people will have jobs and the caseload problems will take care of themselves. Yes. True. And getting there requires what exactly?

But one legislator also proposed that those worried about their safety get a concealed weapon permit. In other words, get a gun.

Not for a second discounting the armed society is a polite society operating theory, is getting a gun an answer to give public servants? Would “I’m here from the government and I’m packing heat so how can I help you?” really work?

And again, not for a second discounting that this is a dangerous world, what sign does suggesting weaponry say about what civil society is devolving to? What then to say when someone is running short on food aid: salt your neighbor’s dog down for jerky? And when someone needs medical aid: boil the bark off the trees and press crystals to the forehead? Is this a sign that, bad economy or not, budget struggle or not, electoral politics or not, everyone needs to think more seriously about the course we are proceeding along?